Hawaii vs. UNLV Football Prediction & Top Bets (November 21, 2025)
Hawaii is so close to the Mountain West title they can taste it. Despite trouncing first place San Diego State in their last game, however, they will enter a road date with the UNLV Rebels as +120 underdogs.
This game comes with all the trimmings, as both Hawaii and UNLV are 4-2 in the MW conference, both teams have stout records, and both are still eligible for a bowl game.
On top of that, this game has an obscene 64.5 total, with these teams operating at an elite level offensively. We can safely expect a high-powered affair on Friday night, and the 3-point spread indicates we won’t want to go to bed early and miss the end of this one, either.
Betting on Hawaii vs. UNLV correctly isn’t the same as kicking back and enjoying a likely barn burner, of course. If you need some help formulating your top picks, join me as I go over the odds and key matchups en route to a Hawaii vs. UNLV prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (7-3) vs. UNLV Rebels (8-2)
- Date & Time: Friday, November 21st, with kickoff at 9:30 pm CT (10:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, NV
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on YouTube TV
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Hawaii vs. UNLV odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Hawaii | +3 (-115) | +120 | O 64.5 (-105) |
UNLV | -3 (-105) | -142 | U 64.5 (-115) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This Mountain West rivalry isn’t the most storied in college football, but it has a solid 34 meetings already. Hawaii has the slight edge (19-15) overall, but UNLV has secured wins the last two times they faced off.
That could be history we may want to pay attention to, as the Rebels edged out Hawaii in a tight 29-27 contest last year, and blew them out (44-20) the year prior.
Friday’s game goes down at Allegiant Stadium, and UNLV has held serve at home in this series, going 4-1 over the last five meetings in Nevada.
Why This Game Matters
This is a huge game within the Mountain West conference, as both teams are one game out of first place with two games remaining on their schedules.
This is an especially huge game for the Rainbow Warriors, as they destroyed San Diego State last time out. If they win out and the Aztecs lose one more game, the conference title is theirs.
UNLV is still alive, though. They are looking at a similar reward if they can win their last two MW games. Conference title hopes aside, these teams are still in position for a bowl game, and finishing the season strong will help decide their fates.
Team Profiles
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
The Rainbow Warriors beat Stanford 23-20 to get off to a 1-0 start early in the year, only to stumble in a brutal 40-6 loss to Arizona the next week. That was their low point, though, as they bounced back with two big wins and have gone 6-2 ever since.
Hawaii lost to Fresno State by two and fell to San Jose State in a 45-38 shootout, which goes to show just how competitive this team is. They have gotten this far by their offense (31st in scoring), and are equipped to go to war with the best offenses in the nation.
Here’s a quick look at what they do well:
- Finish the Job: Hawaii puts up 31.3 points per game, but it’s their sterling execution inside the 20 that makes them so good. They convert at a remarkable 96.97% clip in the red-zone, which is the 3rd best percentage in all of college football.
- Pass Happy: Few teams air it out (and do it well) like the Rainbow Warriors. Their 61.73% pass rate is the 5th highest in the country, but they turn volume into substance with their 39th ranked completion rate and over 308 passing yards per game (5th).
- QB Pressure: As effective as the Rainbow Warriors are on offense, they do have a feather to stick in their defensive cap, too. They come in with a blistering 7.89% sack rate, which is the 16th best in the nation.
UNLV Rebels
UNLV has a better record than their opponent this week, having started the season with a scorching hot 6-0 record. That hot run included three blowouts wins, but it was actually their ability to edge out Miami Ohio (41-38) and Air Force (51-48!) that displayed their potential.
Their offensive potential, at least. This team is a horror show on defense, and it turned into a problem when they got trounced by Boise State and lost a 40-35 thriller to New Mexico.
UNLV bounced back from that two-game skid to win their last two games, but there are certainly question marks about their play on the defensive side of the ball.
Here’s a quick look at where they’ve excelled this season:
- Splash Plays: UNLV checks a lot of boxes on offense as the nation’s 12th best scoring team, but their ability to spring big plays is what makes them dangerous. The Rebels rank inside the top-25 in yards per pass, yards per rush, and yards per play.
- Elite Balance: While they can explode and kill you from anywhere, they also can hurt you from either the ground or the air. They are a very balanced offense, and yet due to their big play ability they still rank 33rd in passing and 27th in rushing.
- Turnover Margin: On top of being balanced and explosive, UNLV takes care of the football with the best of them (43rd). They are also very good at forcing turnovers (37th) with 1.6 takeaways averaged per game.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Hawaii’s pass rush vs. UNLV’s passing game: The Rebels are tough to stop, but the Rainbow Warriors could have their kryptonite if De’Jon Benton (4.5 sacks) and the nation’s 16th best pass rush can get to them early.
- Jaden Bradley vs. Hawaii’s secondary: UNLV thrives on big plays and one of their best weapons is wide receiver Jaden Bradley (16.6 yards per catch). He could have a field day against a Hawaii pass defense that allows 7.7 yards per pass (95th).
- Micah Alejado vs. UNLV’s pass defense: I don’t know if anything else in this game matters if UNLV can’t slow down Alejado (2,2380 yards, 18 TDs). Hawaii passes a ton and UNLV comes in ranked 102nd in yards per pass and 101st in passing yards allowed per contest.
Betting Insights & Trends
Hawaii has been very good against the spread as a whole (7-2), while they are a stout 5-2 ATS as the underdog and 5-1 ATS in Mountain West games.
UNLV isn’t quite as good (5-5) against the spread, while they are just 4-4 ATS when favored and 1-4 against the spread at home.
These teams put up a lot of points, but the game total is understandably quite high. For what it’s worth, the Over is just 4-5 in Hawaii games in 2025, while it’s 5-5 for UNLV.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Hawaii vs. UNLV picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Hawaii ML (+120) | Winning on the road isn’t easy, but both teams have elite offense and only one has any semblance of a defense. UNLV specifically hasn’t displayed an ability to stop the pass – which is what Hawaii does best. | 7/10 |
Over 63.5 (-112) | This is a truly ridiculous game total, but I’d still hammer the Over. Both teams put up over 31 points per game, while the UNLV defense is abysmal. Add in what’s at stake here, and we should get quite the show on Friday night. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Micah Alejado Over 3+ Passing TDs (-128) | You win if Alejado throws three touchdown passes. The matchup and game total should give you confidence, plus he’s literally done this in each of his last five games. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Hawaii ML (+120)
- Secondary Pick: Over 64.5 (-108)
No disrespect to UNLV, but Hawaii showed what they can do when they smoked a good Aztecs team in their last game. I fully expect the Rainbow Warriors to come to play, while UNLV simply doesn’t have the pass defense to slow them down.
The only hope for the Rebels is sticking around, which plays into the Over bet. In addition, if Hawaii is going to win – and if the Over is going to deliver – it makes sense that Micah Alejado would stay hot and put three passing touchdowns on the board.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Things don’t always go as planned when betting on sports. Here’s why my Hawaii vs. UNLV bets could fail:
- Home Field Edge: UNLV is at home and has fared well here in this particular series. It’s always possible they keep up with Hawaii and edge them out, just like they’ve done to other teams this year.
- Rivalry Game: On top of that, this is a rivalry game. Mountain West games have been pretty crazy this year, so predicting them can be a fool’s errand. Variance favors the bold – and the value with Hawaii – but rivalry games can go either way.
- Defensive Bite: The Over feels like a smash bet, but the Rainbow Warriors do have a capable defense. They just got done stifling San Diego State, after all. It’s always possible they hold UNLV in check and this game doesn’t get there.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 45, UNLV Rebels 41
My main Hawaii vs. UNLV prediction is that we are in for some serious fireworks. Both of these offenses are loaded and incredibly explosive. Hawaii is one-dimensional, but UNLV is not equipped to stop them and I don’t respect either defense enough to be worried about the total bet.
Hawaii offers really nice value despite being on the road. They have just enough defensive bite to make the necessary plays to pull off the upset, while their quarterback should be busy enough to get us a prop bet to convert, too.
