Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction & Top Bets (July 1, 2025)
The Cubs are hosting the Guardians at Wrigley on Tuesday in a game that matters for both sides. Chicago has managed to pull itself into the NL Central race, and Cleveland sits one game under .500 and needs to pump the brakes and stop the slide.
On the hill for Chicago is veteran lefty Matthew Boyd, who’s coming off his best start of the season! And Cleveland is sending out its promising young right-hander, Gavin Williams; he’s been striking out opponents left and right and has cut down his walk rate in the last three games.
Will it be the Cubs or the Guardians? Keep scrolling to read all you need to know about this matchup! We’ve got the latest betting odds, pitcher stats, and, of course, our picks for the three best bets.
Game Details
- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 8:05 pm EDT
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- How to Watch: TBS nationally; locally on Marquee Sports Network (Cubs) and Guardians TV/Cleveland cable systems
- Weather: Morning showers possible followed by a humid, partly sunny evening; high near 85°F
Betting Odds
Want to try your luck on this game? Here are the current betting odds and lines posted on Caesars Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Guardians | +1.5 (-145) | +150 | Over 8 (-105) |
Cubs | -1.5 (+122) | -178 | Under 8 (-115) |
Starting Pitchers
Throwing for this one is Cleveland’s top young right-hander and a vet southpaw who’s been one of Chicago’s most reliable pitchers this month!
Guardians – Gavin Williams (5‑3, 3.68 ERA)
Williams allowed 3 runs over 5 innings against Toronto in his last start. Before that, he threw 6 scoreless frames vs. San Francisco, and went 4 innings with 2 runs allowed against Seattle. He’s averaging just over 5 innings per start this season.
Cubs – Matthew Boyd (7‑3, 2.65 ERA)
Boyd tossed 6 shutout innings against the Cardinals on June 25. Over his last five starts, he’s allowed a total of 6 earned runs in 31.2 innings, with 29 strikeouts and just 5 walks. He’s held opposing lineups to a .207 batting average during that span.
Betting Angles & Trends
- The Cubs have won around two-thirds of games when favored on the moneyline this season.
- Chicago has played really well at home, but Cleveland’s projected +150 price creates possible value for underdog bettors.
- Both starters have ERAs under 3.70, and the total sits around 8.5, which implies limited scoring upside.
- Recent matchups between the teams tend to land near the 8–9 run range, with totals usually splitting between the over and under.
Our Best Bets
This one has some value on both sides, but it all depends on how the starting pitching holds! With that in mind, here are our three best bets.
1. Cubs Moneyline (−178)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
Why we like it: Boyd has allowed only 6 earned runs over his last five starts, and the Cubs have won two-thirds of their games as moneyline favorites. They’re 26–17 at home this season.
2. Under 8.5 Total Runs
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆
Why we like it: Both starters have ERAs under 3.70, and the past meetings between these teams usually fall in the 7–9 run range. With a solid pitching setup and limited offensive surges, the under is in play.
3. Guardians +1.5 (Run Line)
Our Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆
Why we like it: Williams has held three straight opponents to three runs or fewer, and Cleveland has been competitive in most of his starts. The +1.5 offers a lot of value if this stays within a single score.
Sharp Betting Focus
This matchup comes with a few angles that are worth targeting! There is tight pricing on both sides, a manageable total, and prop markets that are tied to pitching form and recent splits.
- Underdog Value: The Guardians at +150 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line are worth a look if Williams gives them five solid innings. These lines hold value against a Cubs team that hasn’t consistently built large margins.
- Total Angle: With both starters carrying ERAs under 3.70 and no wind expected to boost scoring, the Under 8.5 is a reasonable play. Pitching matchups and recent totals support a lower-scoring game.
- Prop Watch: Boyd strikeout overs are in range—he’s hit 6+ in three of his last five outings. Seiya Suzuki RBI props could also be worth tracking, especially against right-handed pitching.
Cubs or Guardians? Our Final Verdict
Matthew Boyd has outpitched Gavin Williams in the past month, and the Cubs have been really strong at home with 26 wins at Wrigley Field, and that’s one of the better records in the NL. Cleveland has kept some games close behind Williams, but the bullpen and lineup have been unreliable backing him up with late-inning pitching and run support..
Best Bets Recap
- Cubs Moneyline (–178); Confidence: ★★★★☆: This is the safer side with Boyd’s form and strong home record.
- Guardians +1.5 Run Line; Confidence: ★★☆☆☆: This is a value play if Williams keeps it close through five or six innings.
- Under 8.5 Total Runs; Confidence: ★★★☆☆: Two starters with sub-3.70 ERAs, and recent scoring has stayed under nine.
FYI: Always compare odds across sportsbooks before you place any bets! Price differences can impact long-term value.
Final Score Prediction: Cubs 4, Guardians 2
Boyd will limit Cleveland to minimal scoring over six innings, and the Cubs’ bullpen will finish up the job. Both lineups will be held in check, so a single rally could be the decider!
