Taylor Fritz vs. Karen Khachanov Prediction & Betting Preview (July 8, 2025)
Quarterfinal play continues at the All England Club, and July 8 begins with a matchup between American Taylor Fritz and Russia’s Karen Khachanov, and there’s a lot on the line for both players.
Fritz is back in the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the second year in a row, and it’s his third time reaching this stage. He’s had less court time than expected after Jordan Thompson retired following the first set of their fourth-round match. And that gives Fritz a teeny advantage in the rest department going into this one.
As for Khachanov, this marks his first career Wimbledon quarterfinal! The world No. 20 advanced with a straight-sets win over a lower-ranked opponent, a grueling five-setter against Nuno Borges. This will be his first match against a higher-ranked opponent in the 2025 draw.
Can he rise to the occasion and bust through to the semis for the first time at SW19?
Keep scrolling to find out what we think, player profiles, betting odds, stats, our two best bet picks, and a long-shot option!
Match Details
- Matchup: Taylor Fritz vs. Karen Khachanov
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 8, 8 am ET / 5 am PT
- Location: Centre Court, All England Club (Wimbledon), grass surface
- How to Watch: US: ESPN / ESPN+ (live streaming available); UK: Sky Sports / Now TV
- Stakes: Last 8 showdown; the winner advances to their first-ever Wimbledon semifinal
The Players
Let’s get to know the players! Fritz has won 92% of his grass matches this season and hasn’t been broken in a tournament since Stuttgart. Khachanov got to this point with two comeback wins and five-set mileage, but he hasn’t been across the net from a top-10 player yet.
Taylor Fritz (USA)
- Form: Survived three five-set battles to reach the quarterfinals
- Grass success: Won Stuttgart this year without dropping serve
- Ranking: World No. 5 (career-high No. 4)
- 2025 grass record: 13 matches, 92% win rate, and is averaging 14 aces per match
Karen Khachanov (ROC)
- Form: Fought through two comeback wins in rounds two and three
- Grass stats: 10 matches in 2025, 80% win rate
- Ranking: World No. 19; former top-10 player and Paris Masters champion
- Head-to-head: Khachanov leads 2–0 (no previous grass meetings)
Head-to‑Head & Matchup Stats
Head-to-head: Khachanov is up 2–0
Grass context: This is their first meeting on a grass court. Fritz has held serve more often this season and finishes with his forehand when he’s given the space to.
Style Breakdown
- Fritz uses his serve to take control and follows with forehands that push opponents behind the baseline.
- Khachanov opens points really well with his first serve, but can’t sustain longer points when he’s moved laterally or forced to reset from a defensive position.
Betting Odds & Model Predictions
Ready to put some money down on Fritz vs. Khachanov? Here are the latest betting odds and lines via DraftKings:
| Player | Moneyline | Total Games | Games Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Fritz | -330 | Over 40.5 (-125) | -4.5 (-110) |
Khachanov | +250 | Under 40.5 (-110) | +4.5 (-120) |
- 1st Set Winner: Fritz (-215), Khachanov (+160)
Tactical Breakdown
- Serve pressure: Both players are holding at a high rate, and earlier sets could see minimal openings on return unless second serves drop off.
- Physical toll: Fritz has played three five-setters this week. That kind of heavy workload could start to show if the match goes into a fourth or fifth set.
- Baseline exchanges: Fritz builds points around his forehand and tries to end them as fast as he can. Khachanov uses his big reach to stay in rallies, but he does have some trouble when he’s pushed to the backhand corner or dragged out wide. Execution in these two patterns? It could very well decide the winner.
Our Best Bets
Looking at everything we know about this one, there are two angles we think are your best bets. And there’s a long-shot value play if you want to be daring!
Best Bet #1: Taylor Fritz Moneyline (−333)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Fritz is 13–1 on grass in 2025 and just won Stuttgart without facing a break. He’s winning behind his serve and finishing points with his forehand in two or three shots.
Khachanov hasn’t faced a top-tier server at this tournament and is known to fall behind when rallies stay short.
Note: The line offers a low return, so it’s best used in parlays or live betting after a close opener!
Best Bet #2: Taylor Fritz to Win First Set (~−150)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Fritz has taken the opening set in 10 of his last 12 matches on grass. He’s held early and found his groove on return by the midpoint of the set.
Khachanov has dropped set one in 3 of his last 5 Slam appearances and usually settles later.
Target: If Fritz holds his first two service games without facing a breakpoint? This line holds value!
Long-shot Value Play: Khachanov to Win 1st Set (+180)
Our Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆ (2/5)
Why Do We Like It?
This is a price-based angle. If Khachanov lands a high percentage of first serves and keeps points short on his terms? He does have a shot to take the opener.
The number sits above where most projections put it, so it’s playable for bettors looking to take a calculated chance!
Ready to place a bet on one of our picks? Check out the top betting apps to get the most competitive odds and best bonuses.
Wimbledon QF Outlook: Fritz or Khachanov?
Fritz has served better, attacked earlier in rallies, and played shorter points all season on grass. Khachanov has spent more time running after the ball than controlling it. If Fritz keeps nailing his first serves and gets to his forehand? He’ll outplay Khachanov from the first point on.
Best Bets Recap
- Fritz ML (−333) — ★★★★☆
- Fritz 1st Set (~−150) — ★★★☆☆
- Khachanov 1st Set (+180) — ★★☆☆☆
What to Watch For
- Fewer chances on return in the first set
- Fritz stepping into forehands and aiming behind Khachanov
- One or more sets to go to a tiebreaker
Live Betting Tip: If Fritz loses the first set, check the live odds early in the second! One strong return game can move the line in your favor.
Final Match Prediction:
- Taylor Fritz defeats Karen Khachanov in 4 sets
- Scoreline prediction: 7–6, 4–6, 6–4, 6–3
Fritz’s smokeshow of a first serve and experience on the grass court should get him through this, but Khachanov’s powerful shots could win him a set.
