Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction (July 15, 2025)
The Connecticut Sun are coming back to Boston for a high-profile game against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever at TD Garden.
Only two players from last year’s Sun roster are still on the team from their 69–61 win over the Sparks on August 21, 2024; the night that sold out the arena with 20,000 fans watching their first live WNBA game.
Another sellout is expected Tuesday, and that’s the routine whenever Clark and the Fever are in the house. There’s another backstory, though; Connecticut and Indiana have a nasty history. After facing off in a really physical first-round playoff series last year, it escalated again during their June 17 matchup, when the Sun lost 88–71.
That night included two separate confrontations, three ejections, and a third-quarter incident where Jacy Sheldon poked Clark in the eye. Sophie Cunningham fouled Sheldon really hard on a fast break.
It’ll be a tense and exciting game given the history between the teams! Will there be fouls galore? Who do we think will win? Keep scrolling to see team analysis, betting odds, matchups, and our three best bets.
Game Details
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 15; at 8:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm CT
- Venue: TD Garden, Boston
- How to Watch: Nationally on ESPN
- Main storylines: The Caitlin Clark “effect” means a packed Boston arena; the Fever are on a three-game road win streak, coming in at 11‑10; the Sun are 3‑18, but just broke a 10-game losing streak
Team Analysis
Indiana has a really defined core, reliable scorers, and one of the league’s best assist rates. Connecticut is coming in with a negative point margin, a rotating lineup, and a staff that’s still adapting to an overhaul.
Indiana Fever
- +5.0 PPG differential, scoring 84.5 PPG (4th in WNBA) and allowing 79.5 PPG (5th)
- Kelsey Mitchell: 19.2 PPG, 2.2 made threes per game
- Aliyah Boston: 7.9 RPG, + shot-block presence inside
- Caitlin Clark: 9.0 APG, the team’s assist engine
Connecticut Sun
- A –15.6 PPG differential, scoring 72.5 PPG and conceding 88.1 PPG
- Tina Charles: leading scorer at 15.4 PPG
- Bria Hartley: averaging 1.3 made threes per game, and is the primary playmaker
- Olivia Nelson‑Ododa: grabs 6.1 RPG and blocks 1.4 shots per game
- The team has a new coach (Rachid Meziane), a new roster, and an ownership that’s under review
Betting Lines & Trends
Thinking about betting on this one? Here are the current odds and lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Fever | -15 (-110) | -1400 (implied ~93%) | Over 166.5 (-110) |
Sun | +15 (-110) | +800 | Under 166.5 (-110) |
- ATS Records: Fever are 11–10 ATS with 11 games over the total; Sun are 10–11 ATS with 9 Over games
Gameflow & Matchups
- Indiana’s edge: The Fever creates spacing through Clark’s off-ball movement and Boston’s post position on the first action, and it’s usually within the first 8–10 seconds of the shot clock. Their transition offense comes off long rebounds and quick outlet passes, and they’ve won four of their last six by 10 or more.
- Connecticut’s issue: The Sun averages under 73 points and doesn’t have a reliable shot creator in late-clock situations. Turnovers are still a big factor, and their help defense breaks down when opponents move the ball laterally across the top of the key.
- X-factor: If Indiana gets Clark into double-digit assists by the third quarter and Boston continues to draw help on the block? This’ll be one-sided.
Our Best Bets
#1 Indiana Fever -15.5 (-110)
Our Confidence Level: 5/5 Stars
Why Do We Like It?
- Indiana has won 3 in a row on the road and 6 of their last 8 overall. Clark’s ball movement has created easier scoring chances across the rotation.
- Against teams like Connecticut, with a slower pace and weak paint defense, the Fever have controlled every phase of the game.
- The Sun ranks in the bottom 3 in both scoring and points allowed. Even after they stopped a long slide, they haven’t stayed close against top-half teams.
- TD Garden location changes the crowd dynamic. Indiana might just have more support than the “home” team.
Projection: Indiana wins by 18–22 points.
#2 Over 166.5 Total Points (-110)
Our Confidence Level: 3/5 Stars
Why Do We Like It?
- Indiana averages 84.5 PPG and has gone over this number in 4 of its last 6 games.
- Connecticut has a really hard time defensively against up-tempo teams and gives up volume in transition.
- Scoring from bench units in mismatched games has pushed totals higher in recent Fever matchups.
- The market signals support this range; both teams are trending toward higher-scoring outcomes.
Projected range: 168–172 total points.
#3 Indiana Fever Moneyline (-1400)
Our Confidence Level: 5/5 Stars
Why Do We Like It?
- A straight-up loss? Super unlikely. Connecticut’s win probability sits below 10% based on current form and odds.
- Indiana is better across every category: scoring, rebounding, depth, and pace.
- With Clark in Boston, expect total engagement from Indiana from start to finish.
Use case: Anchor leg in a multi-leg parlay, we do not recommend this as a solo wager!
Our Take: Lock In These Picks
Caitlin Clark is making her debut at TD Garden, and the Fever have been playing their best bball of the season. They’re organized, scoring, and forcing opponents to match their tempo, and that’s something that Connecticut can’t do at this point. The Sun is in the midst of a rebuild, short on playmakers, and plain overmatched in this one.
Best Bets Recap
- Fever –15.5 (–110): ★★★★★
- Over 166.5 Total Points (–110): ★★★☆☆
- Fever Moneyline (–1700): ★★★★★ (parlay anchor only)
Final Score Prediction: Indiana Fever 91 – Connecticut Sun 72
Indiana builds a double-digit lead by halftime and extends it in the third; the Total goes over 165 based on early game pace and scoring; Clark or Mitchell leads the scoring, and both will get favorable looks against Connecticut’s slow perimeter rotations!
