Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces Game 2 Prediction (September 23, 2025)
Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals goes down on Tuesday night at the Michelob ULTRA Arena on the Vegas Strip.
The Indiana Fever shocked pretty much everyone by beating the Las Vegas Aces, 89–73 in Game 1; Kelsey Mitchell got 34 points with 12-of-23 shooting, and Aliyah Boston totally owned the interior with amazing rebounding and rim protection.
The Fever’s outside shooting put the nail in the coffin for the Aces; they hit 52% from deep, which is well above their norm, and their defense rotated cleanly to keep the Aces out of whack. Even without Caitlin Clark, who’s out for the season with a groin injury, the Fever used the third quarter to pull ahead 28–19.
Game 2 will be a challenge of adjustments for Vegas; A’ja Wilson, who nabbed her fourth MVP award, was forced into 6-of-22 shooting for just 16 points. She’ll need to get better looks in the paint to balance the Aces. Jackie Young got 19 points, but the backcourt collectively couldn’t contain Indiana’s insane perimeter attack.
We think Vegas will look for quicker offensive flow and tighter coverage on the arc, and Indiana may be a little too cocky since they won the first game on the road.
Who do we think will win it? Keep reading for a breakdown of the betting odds, a Game 1 recap, main matchups to watch, stats, insights, and what we think are the four best bets for Game 2 of the WNBA Semis!
Game Details
- Matchup: Indiana Fever (24-20) vs. Las Vegas Aces (30-14); Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 23, at 9:30 pm ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- How to Watch: ESPN, WNBA League Pass
Current Betting Odds
Don’t know where to lay your bets? We have the latest odds and lines courtesy of FanDuel!
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Fever | +8.5 (-110) | +330 | Over 164.5 (-110) |
Aces | -8.5 (-110) | -450 | Under 164.5 (-110) |
What This Means
- The market is expecting Las Vegas to make a comeback, which is evident in the heavy −450 moneyline.
- An 8.5-point spread signals that bookmakers think the Aces can reassert control, but it also leaves some room for Indiana to cover as an underdog.
- The total of 164.5 points indicates expectations of a faster pace and more scoring from Vegas after their subpar offensive performance in Game 1.
Game 1 Recap & Implications
How did Game 1 play out? Here’s a quick recap and what it tells us:
Final Score: Indiana 89 – Las Vegas 73.
How the Fever did it:
- Kelsey Mitchell carried the offense with 34 points on 12-of-23 shooting; she hit from the deep and attacked lanes.
- Odyssey Sims and Natasha Howard gave excellent support; Howard also controlled the boards to limit any second chances.
- Indiana’s defense forced the Aces into hurried looks and kept A’ja Wilson from finding her usual rhythm.
- Shooting gap was decisive: The Fever were close to 50% from the floor, and the Aces were around 40%.
Why it matters for Game 2:
- Indiana proved that they can disrupt Vegas’ half-court sets.
- The Aces are now backed into a corner; losing both home games would put them at a disadvantage.
- The Fevers’ confidence is pretty high, and they’ll help them think that they can win another one.
Main Factors & Matchups to Watch
Who and what are we watching for Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals? The following factors:
- She hit 34 in Game 1, but Vegas will send traps and hard hedges at her on ball screens.
- How Kelsey handles blitzes, like quick kick-outs vs. forcing shots, will determine Indiana’s spacing.
- If she still gets downhill off switches, the Fever can keep up.
- She went 6-for-22 in the opener, and that’s not the MVP A’ja Wilson we’ve come to expect!
- Wilson needs to get deep-seal touches early instead of drifting into jumpers.
- Rebounding wasn’t an issue (she got 13 boards), but her offensive usage has got to be better around the rim.
- Fever: Sims’ slashing, Howard’s mid-range face-ups, and Boston’s post touches have to combine for 30+ points. Without that balance? Mitchell is gonna be overloaded.
- Aces: Chelsea Gray has to reestablish control of pace; Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum need perimeter shot-making to stretch out Indiana’s defense.
- The Fever executed really well in the half-court, spacing to the corners for drive-and-kick threes.
- The Aces are at their absolute best when they turn live-ball turnovers into early transition buckets.
- Whoever dictates the tempo influences if this game lands closer to the Over or stays Under.
- Expect Hammon to test out different matchups on Mitchell and bring doubles from the wings.
- The Fever could load up on Wilson, getting early help in the post and daring Vegas’ guards to beat them.
- The Vegas T-Mobile Arena crowd usually helps with strong starts for the Aces.
- Indiana has to survive the opening six minutes without letting Vegas build up a double-digit cushion.
Statistical & Trend Insights
Here’s where things are after Game 1; the numbers indicate there are a few obvious pressure points for both squads heading into Game 2.
- Season Records: Aces 30–14; Fever 24–20.
- Head-to-Head: Las Vegas has controlled this matchup for years, but Indiana has now taken 2 of the last 3, including their playoff opener.
- Shooting Splits: The Fever shot 43% from deep in Game 1, which is way above their season average of 34%. If the Aces do not close out harder on the perimeter? That could happen again.
- ATS Trends: Indiana has covered in 7 of their last 10 games. Las Vegas is only 4–6 against the number in the same stretch.
- Totals Trends: Fever games have finished under the posted total in 6 of their last 8. The Aces usually have a higher-scoring pace, but playoff basketball has slowed down possessions.
What Each Team Needs to Do
Indiana’s Game 1 plan worked, but it’s not gonna look the same in Game 2! The Fever have to keep Mitchell scoring and find other ways to get points, and the Aces need to clean up their half-court offense and get Wilson back up to her MVP level, where she belongs.
Indiana Fever
- Keep Kelsey Mitchell aggressive as a scorer, but get Sims, Howard, and Boston more involved so the defense cannot overload her side of the floor.
- Cut down on live-ball mistakes that feed Vegas in transition. Secure possessions and make the Aces guard through full sets.
- Use Boston and Howard on the offensive glass to extend plays and make Wilson defend multiple efforts inside.
Las Vegas Aces
- Give Wilson more touches on the block early to rebuild her scoring flow after a 6-for-22 night. Deep seals in the paint need to happen before she drifts outside.
- Push off rebounds and steals to find easy points before Indiana solidifies its defense.
- Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young need to hit shots from outside and force Indiana to defend the full arc. If the Fever are forced to stretch out, Wilson has clearer lanes to work inside. Any minutes from Kierstan Bell or Megan Gustafson have to bring tangible scoring or rebounding, so the core four aren’t logging heavy stretches without support.
Our Best Bets
Okay, for our best bets, we’ve narrowed it down to three angles and what looks like a really solid prop!
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Fever +8.5 (-110) | Indiana showed in Game 1 that they can match up with Las Vegas, even on the road. Mitchell’s scoring load plus Boston’s work inside should keep this within single digits. | 75% |
Under 164.5 (-110) | Expect fewer total attempts. The Aces will push inside, and Indiana’s shorter rotation favors more half-court possessions. | 65% |
Aces −450 | Las Vegas is unlikely to lose both home games. The number is inflated, so it only makes sense tied into parlays. | 40% |
Kelsey Mitchell Over 20.5 Points | Indiana runs almost every set through her. Even if she gets extra defensive attention, the volume of attempts projects her into the 20s again. | 70% |
Risks & Variables
- Regression risk: Indiana shot almost 50% from the field and 43% from three in Game 1; both are well above their regular-season averages. If their accuracy cools? It’ll be much harder for them to stay in range.
- Wilson’s response: A’ja Wilson had a bad shooting night, but she still managed to grab 13 rebounds. If she finds her usual scoring touch and pushes into the high-20s or 30s, the Aces will be in control.
- Early separation: If Las Vegas builds a big lead by halftime, Indiana will be forced into quicker perimeter looks, and that makes it harder to cover the number.
- Foul trouble: Whistles on Mitchell, Boston, or Wilson in the first half could totally alter lineups and the game’s trajectory.
We Expect a Bounce-Back, Not a Blowout
Our Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Aces 88 – Fever 78
- Result: The Aces win, but Indiana covers +8.5.
- Total: It stays just under 165.
We don’t think the Fever have enough gas in the tank to do what they did in Game 1, so we are backing the Aces to take Game 2.
Why? Because A’ja Wilson will be back to her MVP self (we hope), and although Indiana will stay in it, we can’t see a way for them to win, even if they have another stellar performance from Mitchell.
It’s not gonna be a blowout by any means; it’ll be close at times, but in the end? Vegas will prevail!
Best Bets Recap
- Fever +8.5 spread: 75%
- Under 164.5 total points: 65%
- Aces −450 moneyline: 40%
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 20.5 points: 70%
Before locking in your Fever vs. Aces Game 2 bets, compare the latest lines and secure the best value by using one of our trusted platforms—check out our full list of top betting sites.
