FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC Match Preview & Prediction (August 23, 2025)
The Eastern Conference leaders are back in action on Saturday night at the TQL Stadium, as they welcome a scrappy New York City side. Sitting in 8th position on the table, NYCFC needs at least a point to keep its playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Orange and Blue are looking to extend their home dominance or risk losing the top spot to Philadelphia.
Who do you think will come out on top when the referee blows the final whistle after 90 minutes in Ohio? We’ll detail our analysis on that. Read on to find out the best bets, value props, and final score prediction as Cincinnati takes on New York City FC.
Match Snapshot
- Fixture: FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 23, 2025 – Kickoff at 6:30 PM ET
- Venue: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
- Surface: Natural Bermuda Grass
- Capacity: ~26,000
- How to Watch: Apple TV – MLS Season Pass
- Weather Forecast: ~82°F, humid, light winds (minimal impact)
Form & Momentum
Both Cincinnati and NYCFC have been on similar streaks in their last 5 matches. While the recent records match, how they’ve performed at home versus on the road tells a different tale. Here’s how the two stack up:
FC Cincinnati
Cincy is rolling with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in its last 5 league matches. The very last game was a statement 2-3 away win against Portland in Providence Park. So far this season, the side has found the back of the net 42 times and conceded 34. That places the goal difference at 8. What’s interesting is that Cincinnati are outperforming their 33.4 xG by over 8 goals, meaning they finish chances better than expected.
At TQL Stadium, the side has won 7 out of 12 matches, drawn 2, and lost just 3. They’re solid, but not exactly invincible. The real surprise is how strong Cincinnati is on the road, with 9 wins from 15 matches. Apparently, away games aren’t scary if you bring your A-game and some goals.
Milwaukee Brewers (Recent record: 9 Wins, 1 Loss)
Like Cincinnati, NYCFC has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their past 5 games. The New York side is riding a decent wave of form at the moment, especially with the 2-1 home win against Nashville in its last match. Indeed, NYCFC is nearly untouchable at home.
The team has 9 wins and no draws at Yankee Stadium this season, and they’ve only lost three times. On the road, though, the reverse is the case, with just 3 wins in 13 away matches. Five of these away fixtures ended in a tie, and the other five saw them return with zero points.
NYCFC is in sync with analytics, as the team has roughly been good as the numbers suggest. Their 36 goals scored in the league this season aren’t far from the 36.9 xG, and they’ve conceded 30 times from a 32.7 xGA.
Head-to-Head & Trends
History leans in New York’s favor, making this MLS match even more gripping. NYCFC holds the all-time edge with 10 wins, compared to just 7 wins for Cincinnati. Both teams have played out a draw twice.
NYCFC also leads in the recent stretch, winning 4 out of the last 5 meetings. Earlier this season, the team grabbed a tight 1-0 victory at Yankee Stadium, showing how hard they grind at home.
The goal-scoring trends in the last 5 matchups are a bit wild, with 3 games seeing 1 goal or less. One can say the defenses, or perhaps nerves, won. The other two games switched things up with 4+ goals. This mix means the BTTS market has only cashed in on 2 of the last 5.
Cincinnati fans may worry that the side hasn’t scored in regulation time against NYCFC in three straight clashes. However, the home team’s recent attacking form can change the narrative on Saturday night.
Odds Overview (FanDuel & Consensus)
Here’s how the markets for FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC look ahead of kick-off at the TQL Stadium (Provided by FanDuel):
| Bet Type | FC Cincinnati | Draw | NYCFC |
|---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +110 | +260 | +220 |
Double Chance | Win or Draw (-290) | Win or Draw (-150) | |
Spread (+1.5/-1.5) | -1.5 (+300) | +1.5 (-450) | |
Both Teams to Score | Yes (-182) | No (+142) |
Key Players to Watch
Now, let’s look at some notable players that can dictate how things play out as Cincy takes on NYCFC:
FC Cincinnati
- Evander (CAM): With 16 goals and 9 assists, he’s the man who powers the attack.
- Kévin Denkey (FW): The Togolese has 13 goals and 1 assist this season, and his excellent movement in the box is always a treat.
- Obinna Nwobodo (CDM): He leads the midfield and supports defense by winning balls and launching counters.
NYCFC
- Alonso Martínez (FW): Having scored 5 goals in his last 5 matches, the forward is in perfect form.
- Andrés Perea (CM): The Colombian is a reliable box-to-box player for progressive carries, blocks, aerials, and tackles.
- Matt Freese (GK): Averaging 3.2 (~63%) saves in his last 5 MLS games, he can be instrumental if Cincy’s attack brings on the pressure.
Betting Picks + Confidence Levels
From our analysis, these are the three best wagers for FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC:
1. FC Cincinnati – Double Chance
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Cincinnati and NYCFC are in similar form right now
- The TQL gives Cincinnati a major upper hand, while NYCFC performs poorly away
- Cincinnati has struggled to win against NYCFC in the past three games
2. Anytime Goal Scorer – Evander
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Evander is the current top scorer and assister in the MLS for FC Cincinnati
- Evander has 3 goals in his last 5 MLS matches
- Evander is versatile and can play in a midfield or forward position
3. Both Teams to Score – Yes
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Both teams have strikers who are in hot form
- Cincinnati have conceded at least one goal in their last 5 matches in all competitions
- NYCFC have only failed to score once in their last 5 matches in all competitions
Cincy’s Edge in Attack Could Be Too Much
FC Cincinnati step onto the pitch on Saturday night in strong form, with the TQL Stadium providing extra comfort. NYCFC has the talent to cause problems for sure, but their away form makes a road victory unlikely.
The match is set up to be competitive, and goals will possibly come at both ends. However, the host team’s firepower may just be too much to handle. We expect Cincinnati to win or at least get a draw, and Evander is the player who can make things happen.
Final Score Prediction: FC Cincinnati 2 – 1 New York City FC
