Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks & Prediction (September 14, 2025)
Are you ready for a Super Bowl rematch in Week 2? That’s what you’re getting on Sunday at 4:24 pm ET!
The Philadelphia Eagles are the visiting team at Arrowhead Stadium, and they’ll play what should’ve been Sunday Night Football since they’re playing the Kansas City Chiefs.
The last time they saw each other, Philly annihilated Kansas City’s dreams for a three-peat Super Bowl run. Philly’s record is 1–0, and the Chiefs are in a foreign (to them) place of starting the season 0–1.
What are the books and oddsmakers saying? The general consensus is that Philly has a slight edge in Sunday afternoon’s game.
We’ll get into all of it below, with the latest betting odds, recent form, team momentum, injuries, rosters, matchups to watch, tactical and trend insights, a market breakdown, and our picks for the three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-1)
- Game Details: Sunday, September 14 at 4:25 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How To Watch: Airing on FOX; streaming on NFL+ + or NFL Sunday Ticket for out-of-market fans
- Weather Forecast: Both teams head into Week 2 after contrasting Week 1 performances (the Eagles won, and the Chiefs lost).
Betting Odds
Feeling this one out? Here’s what the odds and lines are according to FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Eagles | -1.5 (-105) | -118 | Over 46.5 (-112) |
Chiefs | +1.5 (-115) | +100 | Under 46.5 (-108) |
Recent Form & Momentum
The Eagles came out of Week 1 looking like the defending champions; Kansas City? Not so much. They lost their first game (unlike them) and are short on receivers this week.
Philadelphia Eagles
- The Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys 31–10 in Week 1 and were in control of both lines of scrimmage during the game.
- Jalen Hurts completed 19 of 23 passes, rushed for 62 yards, and scored two touchdowns on designed runs.
- The offensive line gave solid and consistent protection so that A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had the time and space to win against coverage.
- Jalen Carter pressured the interior while the edge rush collapsed the pocket, and that forced hurried throws and resulted in a turnover from Prescott.
- Philly looked really organized and physical in all three phases; they looked fit and ready.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City lost 27–24 to the Chargers in Brazil, which marks an unheard-of season-opening defeat in the Mahomes era.
- Patrick Mahomes moved the ball, but he relied heavily on Travis Kelce because Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals were not available.
- Isiah Pacheco could not establish regular production on the ground, which left the offense one-dimensional and totally reliant on Mahomes to extend plays.
- The defense gave up repeated completions outside the numbers and committed penalties that changed field position at important moments.
- The Chiefs go into Week 2 undermanned at receiver and needing to correct a lot of mistakes against this Eagles roster.
Injuries & Roster Notes
Who’s sitting out and who’s playing? We’ve got it all below:
Eagles
- Tight end Dallas Goedert is out with a knee injury, and that takes out one of Jalen Hurts’ most trusted red-zone targets.
- The defensive backfield is fully available, which gives Philadelphia a chance to load coverage toward Kelce and force Kansas City’s backup receivers to win one-on-one.
Chiefs
- Wideout Rashee Rice is suspended, and rookie Xavier Worthy is out with a shoulder injury, and that leaves Mahomes without two of his top pass-catching threats.
- Travis Kelce is still the focal point of the passing game, but Philadelphia’s defense will bracket him whenever they can.
- The defensive unit is largely intact, but the cornerback group is really vulnerable against size and speed, and that’s a tough ask against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Matchups to Watch
We think this game will come down to certain one-on-one battles. Philly’s roster is built to exploit Kansas City’s roster gaps, and Mahomes and Kelce try to fill them in.
- Philadelphia’s corners are super physical and disciplined, and they’ll be up against a Kansas City receiver group that’s without Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- The Chiefs are stuck with role players who struggled to separate against the Chargers.
- Mahomes will have to create off-script throws to keep drives going, because straight dropbacks? They give their wideouts very little in the way of chances against Slay and Bradberry.
- The Eagles finished third in sacks last season and generated a ton of pressure on 36% of dropbacks in Week 1.
- Kansas City’s tackles allowed multiple hurries against the Chargers, and that forced Mahomes into quick releases.
- If Philadelphia collapses the pocket at a similar rate? Kansas City’s passing attack gets predictable, and Mahomes will be forced into constant second-reaction plays.
Kelce is the one true matchup nightmare left. Expect double teams, bracket coverage, and physical play at the line.
- Kansas City surrendered 4.7 yards per carry to the Chargers in Week 1, especially on inside zone runs.
- Philadelphia’s offensive line created push for 156 rushing yards against Dallas, setting up Hurts on play-action for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
- Sustaining that ground production at Arrowhead? It shortens the game and cuts Mahomes’ possessions down to eight or nine drives.
Tactical & Trend Insights
- Eagles’ Game Plan: Philly has been at its best when the run game and quick-hitting passes set the pace. Against Kansas City’s depleted receiver corps, the Eagles can push the Chiefs into long-yardage situations and make Mahomes work without reliable wideouts.
- Chiefs’ Bounce-Back Spot: Mahomes is 9–2 ATS coming off a loss, and Andy Reid usually adjusts pretty well after setbacks. We think they’ll be more designed touches for Isiah Pacheco and heavier usage of Kelce in order to stabilize the offense.
- Total Trends: The number sits at 46.5, and recent meetings have leaned toward scoring. But both defenses ranked top 10 in 2024, and Week 2 timing can still favor defenses, and that makes the Under worth a look.
- Arrowhead Impact: Kansas City has covered in 6 of its last 8 prime-time home games. Noise from the crowd regularly pushes false starts and blown protections, and that factor could put a strain on Philadelphia’s line communication.
Betting Market Breakdown
When the lines are this tight, it usually comes down to quarterback play; oddsmakers have given Philadelphia just the teensiest cushion against Mahomes at home!
Point Spread: Eagles -1.5 (-105) / Chiefs +1.5 (-115)
The spread is set just past a pick’em, which signals that sportsbooks expect a one-possession finish. Philadelphia has been given the narrow edge based on roster health and its recent form.
Moneyline: Eagles -116 / Chiefs -102
The prices show very little separation, and Philadelphia has a slight lean. Bettors who are backing Kansas City are essentially betting on Mahomes’ ability to overcome missing wideouts.
Total Points: 46.5 (Over -112 / Under -108)
The number reflects two capable offenses, but also shows a respect for both teams’ defenses. With 46.5 as the midpoint, bettors have to weigh Philadelphia’s ability to generate explosive plays against Kansas City’s history of slowing down games when it plays at home.
Our Best Bets & Predictions
As we said, the market has this game at nearly even, so picking spots is more important than siding with a clear favorite. We narrowed it down to three bets that we have the most faith in based on the matchup and history!
Best Bet #1: Under 46.5 (-108)
Our Confidence Level: High
Why Do We Like It?
Kansas City’s passing attack is missing key receivers, and that forces Mahomes into shorter completions and longer drives. Philadelphia’s defense is built to limit explosive plays, and the Chiefs’ front can slow Philly’s rushing attack in the red zone. That combo points to fewer touchdowns and a scoreline that stays under the posted total.
Best Bet #2: Chiefs +1.5 (-115)
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
Mahomes almost never drops consecutive games, and Andy Reid is known for pivoting after a loss. Arrowhead does tilt games in the Chiefs’ favor, particularly when the crowd noise disrupts protection. Even if Philadelphia controls parts of the matchup? Historically, Kansas City has covered this short number when they play at home.
Best Bet #3 (Prop Angle): Travis Kelce Anytime TD
Our Confidence Level: Medium-High
Why Do We Like It?
Because Rashee Rice is suspended and Xavier Worthy is sidelined, Mahomes’ most dependable option is still Kelce. He owned red-zone looks in Week 1 and will be the go-to target again when Kansas City gets inside the 20. Even against bracket coverage, Mahomes totally trusts him in close spaces, which makes this prop probably one of the safer scoring plays!
What Could Change the Game
There are some scenarios that could change the outcome of this one:
- If one of Kansas City’s backup receivers wins vertically, it forces Philadelphia to adjust its coverage and prevents them from doubling Kelce on every down.
- Arrowhead crowd impact combined with Chris Jones collapsing the interior could possibly disrupt the Eagles’ protections and put Hurts into long-yardage downs.
- Hurts has a history of fumbling when he’s under pressure; if Kansas City creates a turnover in Eagles’ territory, it changes the entire scoring outlook.
- A special teams breakdown or defensive touchdown could decide this game, since both defenses are capable of turning a mistake into points.
A Sorta Super Bowl Rematch: Who Takes It?
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 23 – Chiefs 20
This one belongs to the Eagles! It won’t be a blowout by any means, but Philly has a lot more ways to move the ball, even sans Dallas Goedert, and their front seven is built to push Mahomes off track. Kansas City still runs through Mahomes and Kelce, but its receiver group? They don’t scare anyone.
Both defenses can hold the line, and that’s what makes the total one of the better betting angles for this game. Arrowhead won’t save a team that’s down two wideouts and puts the entire load on Mahomes and Kelce. The Eagles have the stronger lineup across the board, and that’s why they leave KC with the win!
Best Bets Recap
- Under 46.5 (–108): High Confidence
- Chiefs +1.5 (–115): Medium Confidence
- Travis Kelce Anytime TD: Medium-High Confidence
Ready to bet on Eagles vs. Chiefs? Stay ahead by comparing spreads, totals, and props with our top-rated sports betting sites to lock in the best value and boost your edge.
