Duke vs. Michigan State Prediction & Best Bets CBB (December 6th, 2025)
It’s a battle of two undefeated titans of college basketball on Saturday, when the #4 Duke Blue Devils (9-0) head north to take on the #7 Michigan State Spartans (8-0). Something has to break, while top sportsbooks like DraftKings peg the Spartans as slight 1.5-point home favorites.
Michigan State is getting a mild edge thanks to playing this one at home, while they also boast a strong defense that has yet to allow a single team top 70 points in a game. Duke could very well be the first team to buck that trend in 2025, of course, seeing as they have been an offensive force with six games over 80+ points already.
With a tight spread and no moneyline at the time of this writing, this looks like a classic pick’em that could be tough to project. If you want to bet on this game, though, I’ve got you covered. Join me for a look at the odds and key matchups, as well as my preferred picks and Duke vs. Michigan State prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Duke Blue Devils (9-0) vs. Michigan State Spartans (8-0)
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 6th, at 11:00 am (12:00 ET)
- Venue: Breslin Center in East Lansing, MI
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on FOX
Early Season Performance & Trends
Duke Blue Devils
The 4th-ranked Blue Devils appear to be one of the best teams in college basketball. It may be only a matter of time before they’re considered the team to beat for March Madness, too.
Duke has one of the best players in the nation with big man Cameron Boozer dominating at both ends. He’s a likely top 5 pick in the NBA Draft and is a big reason why the Blue Devils have a shot at the title this year.
Duke isn’t without their blemishes. They’re a slower offensive team, and in their last game, they almost got tripped up by Florida. That was their first true test of the season, however, and they passed it by surviving and staying undefeated.
Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo has his Spartans looking as good as ever, and they’ll look to stay perfect at home against a Duke team the program has struggled against.
Michigan State is equipped to handle the Blue Devils, however, thanks to one of the best defenses in all of college basketball. It’s helped them contain some solid offenses to this point, while only their game of the season (vs. Arkansas) was close.
The Spartans have otherwise been quite dominant and are gaining confidence after a blowout over North Carolina two games ago, as well as starting off at 1-0 in the Big 10 after downing Iowa.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
Duke and Michigan State surprisingly have only faced each other 18 times in their history, with Duke dominating with a 15-3 record.
The two sides last faced off in 2023, where the Blue Devils predictably prevailed, 74-65. Duke has gone 8-2 over the last 10 meetings and are undefeated (2-0) when playing the Spartans in Michigan.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Duke is a hyper-efficient offensive team (10th) with a strong supporting cast. They also have a superstar player in Cameron Boozer (23 ppg, 10 rpg) that has a massive impact on the game at both ends of the floor.
Boozer’s impact on Duke’s offense goes even further, as he’s averaging 3.67 assists per contest. The only real downside for this offense is the lack of elite scoring options around Boozer.
Patrick Ngongba II (12.5 ppg) and Isaih Evans (12.5 ppg) chip in at decent rates, but nobody is close to Boozer’s production on this team. In addition, Duke has not yet displayed the ability to convert from long range at an elite rate, nor get to the free throw line as often as the best teams in the country.
They’re fine if the efficiency remains and Boozer dominates, but could struggle if they can’t turn to reliable outside shooting and freebies.
Michigan State is less imposing than Duke on offense. They don’t have anyone close to as dominant as Boozer, while they also only have three players averaging double figures in scoring.
The Spartans max out with Jaxon Kohler’s 14.2 points per game, but he at least chips in 9.8 rebounds and blocks 1.1 shots per contest. Jeremy Fears Jr. is the team’s second leading scorer (12.2 ppg), but runs the offense at an elite level, setting his teammates up well with 9.2 assists per game.
Michigan State ranks 114th in scoring offense, and they aren’t overly efficient, while they don’t hit at an elite rate from long range or from the free-throw line. They do rank 12th in assists per game, but this is simply not a very reliable team on the offensive end of the floor right now.
Boozer isn’t just the key to Duke’s offense; he’s also making an impact at the other end of the floor with 1.67 steals and a block per game. He’s played a key role in the 4th-best scoring defense in basketball, while they own the most efficient shooting defense in the country.
Tom Izzo always coaches up strong defenses, and that’s again the case in 2025, with the Spartans also grading out as a nasty group (6th best scoring defense). Michigan State is especially good at forcing long-range shots, while holding teams to an elite 28.2% shooting clip from deep.
In terms of pace, these are slower, methodical teams. Duke ranks just 194th in pace, while Michigan State ranks even lower at 313.
- Duke’s outside shooting vs. Michigan State’s perimeter defense: The Blue Devils are not elite from long range, but they do still make 10 threes per game and connect at a 36% clip. That’s better than Michigan State, but it’s hard to know if it’s a clear edge when the Spartans stifle offenses on the perimeter (32nd).
- Cameron Boozer vs. Michigan State’s balance: Duke has one superstar, and the Spartans don’t really have someone at his level. They have two foundational players that do a lot of things well, and then a decent supporting cast around them. What will win out; Duke’s star power, or Michigan State’s balance?
- Battle of the Boards: Both teams rebound the ball very well and have a key big that can dominate the glass. With both teams ranking inside the top-25 in rebounding, something has to break here.
Michigan State is technically the worst offense inside the Top-25 right now, especially when you factor in pace, outside shooting, and free-throw conversion rate.
Freshman Cam Ward missed Michigan State’s last game, but is due back for this one. That’s not nothing, as he’s chipping in nine points and 5.1 rebounds per game on the year.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Duke vs. Michigan State betting odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Duke | -1.5 (-105) | -120 | Over 139.5 (-112) |
Michigan State | +1.5 (-115) | +100 | Under 139.5 (-108) |
The pricing is surprisingly tight despite a clear gap between these two teams offensively. The game total leans into both teams having very strong defenses and the Spartans being one of the slower-paced teams in the country.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The point spread is basically a pick’em, so we’re getting really good value with the Blue Devils despite the fact that they’re on the road.
This is a very low game total when you consider Duke puts up almost 90 points per game, so this is another area bettors could exploit.
Situational Considerations
This game is in Michigan State, where the Spartans have clearly yet to lose. Duke hasn’t lost a road game in this series, but two of their three losses have come away from home.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Duke -1.5 (-105) | Duke is simply the better team. Michigan State is well-coached, slows the pace down, plays strong defense, and is at home. But the Blue Devils have more star power, are just as good defensively, and have the more complete offense. | 7/10 |
Over 139.5 (-112) | The defense in this game gives us a really low total. I would normally shy away from this bet, but the low total and Duke’s offense makes me like the Over. | 7/10 |
Shifting odds lines reflect how bettors react to the Duke vs Michigan State showdown—track evolving updates and compare them at the top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Duke 75, Michigan State 72
Tom Izzo almost always has his Spartans ready to play, so I doubt they get blown off the court at home. They have the ability to slow the game down, and I think that impacts Duke enough to the point where they score well below their season average.
That said, Michigan State doesn’t have anyone that can really slow down Cameron Boozer, while Duke’s offense should still be effective enough despite the tough matchup. Michigan State’s offense ultimately isn’t good enough to overcome the Blue Devils, leaving the Spartans with their first taste of defeat this year.
