Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview & Prediction (August 10, 2025)
It’s the first-ever Rivals Week in the WNBA, and on the second day’s lineup, the Atlanta Dream will get a crack at the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday, and it’ll be a game to watch.
Both bball squads are 19-11, and a dead-even record suggests it’ll be a cuticle-picker. The Dream have been on a streak and have won six of their last seven games, and they already own two wins over the Mercury this season.
But hold on a second, because Phoenix has been really strong at home; they’re 11-4 at Footprint Center and feed off their crowd in close home games.
Now, let’s talk about the talent on the floor. We’ve got Allisha Gray’s shooting (she scored 25 points in the last game) vs. Alyssa Thomas, who booked her third in a row triple-double performance, and that’s a lot of volume.
Who do we think will win this game? Keep scrolling to see match details, betting odds, storylines, analysis, and what we think are the four bets that are backed by recent form and the market!
Game Details
- Matchup: Atlanta Dream (19-11) vs. Phoenix Mercury (19-11)
- Date: Sunday, August 10, 2025
- Tip-off Time: 6:00 pm ET
- Location: PHX Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
- Season Series: Atlanta is ahead 2-0
- How to Watch: Available on ESPN2 and streaming with WNBA League Pass
Live Odds & Betting Lines
How’s the market looking for this WNBA game? These are the latest odds and lines courtesy of FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Dream | +3.5 (-108) | +146 | Over 164.5 (-112) |
Mercury | -3.5 (-112) | -180 | Under 164.5 (-108) |
Main Storylines & Analysis
What’s been happening with these two squads and how will it affect the game?
Rivals Week Spotlight
This matchup is branded as part of the WNBA’s first Rivals Week, and it’s running from August 9–17, so there will be some extra energy and narrative to the game!
Atlanta’s Killer Form
Atlanta has won six of its last seven games, and two of those wins were against Phoenix. Allisha Gray’s shooting has been a difference-maker during this run; she’s converted over half her attempts from the field and is hitting better than 51% from three. Her accuracy? It forces defenses to extend, and that creates space for Atlanta’s cutters and secondary scorers to operate.
Mercury’s Ace: Alyssa Thomas
Thomas is the league’s assist leader at 9.2 per game, and she just dished her third straight triple-double on Aug. 7, setting a new WNBA record.
Head-to-Head Trend
History leans toward Phoenix in this matchup, as they’ve won most of the recent meetings in their own arena. But Atlanta has been the more reliable team for bettors as of late; they’ve covered in six of their last seven and keep games within reach no matter where they play.
Health Check: Brittney Griner
Atlanta Dream’s center Brittney Griner had been ruled out for a third straight game with a neck injury. Her return, or if she keeps sitting out, will definitely change the battle for control in the paint.
Our Best Bets
Okay, looking at all of the numbers, we have landed on three angles that have the most value and a decent player prop!
1. Moneyline – Phoenix Mercury
- Our Confidence Level: 70%
Why do we like it?
Phoenix has been one of the WNBA’s most reliable home teams (11–4) and usually comes back after losing to the same opponent. Alyssa Thomas is running the offense at an absolutely elite level, and her distribution creates clean looks from multiple spots on the floor.
Key Factor: Atlanta’s 2–0 record in the matchup happened when Phoenix was either short-handed or not defending. Now that they have a fuller rotation and home support? Phoenix is in a better position to control the tempo.
Risk: Atlanta’s current win rate keeps this from being a runaway pick, but it’s still the safer side.
2. Spread – Phoenix –3.5
- Our Confidence Level: 60%
Why do we like it?
The Mercury have the size and scoring options to pull ahead in the second half if they win the rebounding battle and draw fouls. At home, they’ve been among the league leaders in point differential after halftime.
Key Factor: If Brittney Griner is available to play, Phoenix gains a major advantage inside, forcing Atlanta to rely on perimeter shooting.
Risk: Atlanta has covered in six of its last seven games, so this spread could be in play right down to the last possessions.
3. Total Points – Over 164.5
- Our Confidence Level: 55%
Why do we like it?
Recent scoring trends push this toward the over. Atlanta is averaging nearly 90 PPG over its last five outings, and Phoenix is at 84 over its last four. Both recent head-to-heads topped 160 points.
Key Factor: Thomas’s playmaking and Gray’s shot-making speed up possessions, and a competitive scoreline could mean extra points from end-game fouls.
Risk: If either defense tightens up for playoff positioning? The total could come in lower!
4. Player Prop – Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 Assists
- Our Confidence Level: 65%
Why do we like it?
Thomas leads the league at 9.2 APG and has gone over this line in three games straight. Atlanta’s help coverage tends to leave open shooters in the corners, and Thomas always seems to find them.
Key Factor: In a back-and-forth game, Thomas will handle the ball on most possessions, and that’ll give her lots of chances to rack up assists.
Risk: A blowout in Phoenix’s favor could see Thomas sit more in the fourth quarter.
Drama in the Desert: Phoenix Has the Advantage
Although both teams’ season records are the same, the circumstances are not. Phoenix has been solid on their home court all year, and the stakes only notch up that advantage. And even though Atlanta has won both previous meetings, pulling off a full-season sweep on the Mercury’s floor? That would take near-perfect execution.
Alyssa Thomas directs traffic better than anyone in the WNBA right now, and Gray’s perimeter scoring has been a nightmare for defenders. And if Griner is cleared to play? Phoenix’s inside game becomes a lot harder to counter, which is why we are backing them to win!
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 92 – Atlanta Dream 88
If you’re betting on this game, don’t forget to odds shop for the most competitive value across the best online sportsbooks before you lock in your wagers!
