Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction & Betting Picks (September 18, 2025)
Thursday Night Football will be an AFC East fight in Orchard Park, home of the Buffalo Bills, and Miami is running onto that field right into a trap with this matchup.
The Dolphins are 0–2 for the first time since 2019; they were beaten by the Chargers and Patriots, and now are facing a team that’s straight up owned them for close to a decade. Buffalo is sitting pretty at 2–0, fresh off wins over Indy and the Jets, and the Bills have ripped off six in a row against Miami; they’ve won 13 of the last 14 overall.
Kickoff happens at 8:15 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium, and Buffalo is the 11.5-point favorite, which is the largest spread of the new season and almost unheard of in divisional matchups; the total is posted at 49.5 points.
Keep reading to find out the game details, what the latest betting odds are, recent trends for both teams, players to watch, main matchups, possible game plans, and what we feel are the three best bets for this one!
Game Details
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins (0-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0)
- Game Details: Thursday, September 18 at 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
- How To Watch: Thursday Night Football streams on Amazon Prime Video
Betting Odds
If you’re gonna bet on the game, here’s what FanDuel has posted for odds and lines:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Dolphins | +11.5 (-106) | +570 | Over 49.5 (-118) |
Bills | -11.5 (-114) | -820 | Under 49.5 (-104) |
Recent Trends & Context
Two weeks into the NFL season, Buffalo already looks like the team to beat. Miami? It’s fighting to keep its head above water in the AFC East. Look below for the recent trends of both squads!
Buffalo Bills
- Record: Buffalo is off to a 2–0 start; they took down the Jets 27–13 in Week 1 and the Colts 31–18 in Week 2. Both were games where they built control by halftime and never looked fazed.
- Defense: Sean McDermott’s front has been relentless; he’s held opponents to 3.1 yards per carry and forced five turnovers in two weeks. Greg Rousseau already has three sacks, and linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard have been flying downhill to bottle up short gains.
- Offense: Josh Allen has thrown for 572 yards and five touchdowns during two games and added another score on the ground. Stefon Diggs has been his go-to with 16 catches and 2 TDs, and Dalton Kincaid is quickly becoming a solid option in close spaces. Buffalo hasn’t had to chase points yet, and that’s allowed them to play a balanced game.
- Home Edge: Since 2023, the Bills are 11–2 at Highmark Stadium, averaging nearly 30 points per game. Allen’s passer rating at home is 13 points higher than on the road, which just underscores how hard Orchard Park is for the visiting quarterbacks.
Miami Dolphins
- Record: Miami has dropped to 0–2 after falling 27–20 to the Chargers in Week 1 and 24–17 to the Patriots in Week 2. Both games were within reach, but Miami’s execution late in drives was the difference.
- Offense: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 325 yards and 3 scores, but Tua Tagovailoa has been hit nine times and sacked five. Without Austin Jackson at right tackle, protections haven’t been solid, and Miami has leaned too much on quick passes. The run game with Raheem Mostert has been bottled up, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.
- Defense: The secondary has been picked on, giving up 270+ passing yards in both games and missing open-field tackles that turned into big gains. They’ve forced only two sacks during two weeks, and that isn’t enough pressure against vet QBs.
- Situation: Starting 0–3 in the AFC East would put Miami in a hole that’s historically hard to climb out of. Expect Mike McDaniel to be really aggressive with play-calling to try to change the direction.
Head-to-Head Rivalry
- Buffalo has beaten Miami six times in a row with an average margin of 12.8 points. The last three meetings in Orchard Park have all been won by double digits.
- The Dolphins haven’t won in Buffalo since 2016, when Ryan Tannehill outdueled Tyrod Taylor. Since then, Allen has personally gone 10–2 against Miami with a total of 34 touchdowns.
- Divisional familiarity means that neither side will be surprised by the other; success usually hinges on red-zone execution and the quarterback who takes better care of the ball.
Main Matchups & Players to Watch
The players and matchups we are watching in this one are as follows:
- Josh Allen vs. Dolphins’ Secondary: Allen threw for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last start against Miami. The Dolphins’ cornerbacks allowed 250+ passing yards last week and gave up separation when receivers ran outside.
- Stefon Diggs vs. Xavien Howard: Diggs tallied 92 yards and a score the last time he matched up with Howard. Howard missed time last week, and his ability to keep up with Diggs’ route speed will matter deep downfield.
- Dolphins’ Offensive Line vs. Bills’ Pass Rush: Miami surrendered four sacks against the Chargers when protection broke down on the edge. Buffalo’s Rousseau and Von Miller generated pressure on 38% of pass plays in their last game, and that set up player mismatches.
- Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle vs. Bills’ Safeties: Hill accumulated 181 yards in his last game vs. Buffalo. Buffalo’s safeties allowed 120+ yards after catch in Week 1, and that could open explosive yards if Hill or Waddle gets the room to run.
- Coaching: McDermott’s defense adjusted to limit deep throws and tightened up third-down dropbacks in Week 1. McDaniel used motion and quick-release passes to offset pressure last week, and those schematic choices could very well decide how many possessions each team gets.
Game Plan: How It Could Play Out
What will the game look like? According to past history and recent performances, there are three scenarios we could see:
- Scenario A (Most Likely): Buffalo’s front forces Miami into repeated third-and-longs, putting Stroud in predictable situations. Josh Allen takes advantage with designed runs and deep strikes, giving the Bills a two-score lead by halftime.
- Scenario B: Miami lands an early Tyreek Hill touchdown to keep pace through two quarters, but Buffalo’s pass rush and physical secondary begin to limit explosive plays as the game goes on.
- Scenario C (Upset Path): Miami’s best chance comes from using Raheem Mostert and a short passing game to control possession and keep Buffalo’s offense off the field. Can they drain the clock and avoid giving Allen extra drives? They give themselves a chance to cover or possibly steal the win.
- X-factors: The weather conditions in Buffalo (wind), execution in the red zone, and if Josh Allen can avoid turnovers will all play a big part in how this game ends.
Odds & Line Movement / Value Spot
- Spread (Bills −11.5): Divisional lines this high don’t come around very much, but Buffalo’s success against Miami and the Dolphins’ injury issues make it understandable in this case. The Bills have covered in similar matchups in recent years.
- Moneyline: At −820, the Bills’ ML isn’t playable on its own but could be paired in parlays. The Dolphins at +570 are a true long shot and will only attract bettors who are looking for a big payout.
- Total (49.5)
- Over Case: Both offenses have the ability to stretch the field, and if Miami is behind, they’ll be throwing heavily, and that ups the point potential.
- Under Case: If Buffalo builds a two-score advantage and changes toward longer possessions on the ground, that cuts down on the total number of drives and scoring chances.
Our Best Bets
Buffalo is the heavy favorite, but there are three specific plays that make the most sense when you take injuries and matchups into consideration!
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Bills −11.5 (-114) | Buffalo has beaten Miami by decent margins before, and Miami is missing multiple starters that affect both the passing game and protection. That roster gap? It will show up across four quarters. | ★★★★☆ (4/5) |
Over 49.5 (-118) | Buffalo should put points on the board, and Miami will need to throw more if they are behind. More passing volume and occasional quick scores will push this toward the over. | ★★★☆☆ (3/5) |
Josh Allen — Anytime TD | Allen is the designated option in short-yardage and goal-line packages; his usage near the goal line makes a rushing/anytime TD a really smart play! | ★★★★☆ (4/5) |
Risks / What Could Go Wrong
- Miami’s speed on the perimeter can still generate a long touchdown, which would keep the margin within reach late in the game.
- Losing a starter during the game could alter matchups and force adjustments.
- Backdoor cover risk: if Buffalo is up by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, Miami could add a late score that trims the final margin.
Final Word: Buffalo Covers Again in AFC East Clash
Final Score Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 20
The Bills win and cover at home, Miami adds points in the fourth quarter but never gets close enough to overturn the margin, and the Over 49.5 cashes on second-half scoring!
We’re behind the Bills all the way here! Buffalo will get it done at home; they’ve had Miami’s number in previous games, and the Dolphins come into this one missing too many main players to keep up with Buffalo for all four quarters.
Josh Allen’s red-zone production is still the biggest asset, and that’s more than enough to sway this matchup toward Buffalo. Miami could maybe connect on a long play or two, but the overall talent gap? That’ll be apparent by the end!
Best Bets Recap
- Bills −11.5: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
- Over 49.5: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
- Josh Allen Anytime TD: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Betting on Dolphins vs. Bills this Thursday Night Football? Stay sharp by comparing spreads, totals, and props with our top sports betting sites to maximize value and secure trusted payouts.
