Dodgers vs. Red Sox Betting Preview & Prediction (July 25, 2025)
It’s a battle in Boston! The LA Dodgers are headed east to play the Red Sox at Fenway Park for a three-game series, and it all begins on Friday night.
Both clubs are in playoff mode and slugging it out for a postseason position, so it’ll be some good ol’ baseball.
Who’s on the hill for LA? That would be Emmet Sheehan. And who’s throwing for the Red Sox? Brayan Bello.
The Dodgers are the slight favorites going in, but Boston is at home, and that could light a fire under the Red Sox players.
We’ll get into it all below with the latest betting odds, starting pitchers matchup, recent trends, and what we feel are the three best bets for the opener in this series!
Game Details
- Matchup: LA Dodgers (60-43) vs. Boston Red Sox (55-49)
- Date & Time: Friday, July 25, at 7:10 pm ET (4:10 pm PT)
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
- How to Watch: NESN (New England), SportsNet LA (Southern California); also available via local RSNs and MLB.tv
- Forecast for the First Pitch: It’ll be partly sunny and around 92°F with southwest winds ~11 mph, humid, and a 40% chance of afternoon storms, and that could influence later-inning conditions
Betting Odds
You rootin’ for Boston or LA? Before you do, check out the current betting odds and lines according to DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | -1.5 (+128) | -123 | Over 10 (-105) |
Red Sox | +1.5 (-156) | +102 | Under 10 (-115) |
Starting Pitchers & Matchup Notes
Let’s take a look at the starters and a few important matchup factors:
Dodgers: Emmet Sheehan (approx. 1–1, 4.41 ERA)
Sheehan hasn’t worked past the 5th inning in any of his last three starts. He’s fastball-heavy, but his command drifts late in outings. LA typically has a reliever warming up and ready to go, especially if the pitch count hits 75 before the 5th.
Red Sox: Brayan Bello (around 6–4, 3.23 ERA)
Gets weak contact with a sinker/changeup mix that stays low in the zone. He’s allowed only one homer in his last four Fenway starts and does a better job than most at controlling left-handed contact inside the park.
Key Matchups
- Dodgers against Bello’s sinker-heavy approach: Right-handed hitters like Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández do well when they get pitches at the bottom of the zone they can lift. Bello’s best shot is getting ahead with his changeup and forcing ground contact early. If he’s missing spots, that group will elevate and punish anything left too low and firm.
- Red Sox vs. Sheehan’s Fastball: Sheehan throws in the mid-90s, but his fastball stays flat when he doesn’t change eye levels or pair it with his offspeed pitches. And that’s a problem against a Red Sox lineup that forces pitchers into the zone. Hitters like Devers, Casas, and Yoshida will wait, and if they’re seeing the fastball belt-high? They’ll time it up and drive it.
- Bullpen Matchup: The Dodgers are going into this game with a bullpen that’s had a lighter week and more options; Evan Phillips and Ryan Brasier can handle the middle or late innings without falling behind in counts, and neither one has pitched since Tuesday. Boston’s pen has seen heavier use. Jansen, Bernardino, and Slaten all pitched earlier this week, so the Red Sox may be thinner if Bello doesn’t give them length. If this one’s still close in the 6th inning, LA has more flexibility on the mound.
Recent Trends & Betting History
- The Dodgers have won around 61% of games when listed as moneyline favorites at –119 or shorter (about 53–34 in those spots).
- The Red Sox have won nearly 42% of their games when priced between +101 and +104.
Betting History
- Los Angeles is 4–6 over its last 10, and 7 of those games have stayed under the total.
- Boston is 6–4 in its last 10 overall but has dropped 4 of its last 5 when they going as the slight underdog.
Betting Angles & Insights
- If Sheehan gets through the first few innings clean? LA’s bullpen puts them in a good position in the later innings.
- Boston still has value at home as the underdog, especially if they can stretch out at-bats and force early traffic.
- The total could stay in check if both starters avoid big innings and relievers keep base traffic low.
Our Best Bets
Ok, so for this matchup, we have three angles that look pretty decent! Here are our three best bets.
1. Under 10 Total Runs (–115)
Our Confidence Level: Medium–High
Why Do We Like It?
- Bello’s command at Fenway has held teams to short rallies; he’s posted a sub‑3.00 ERA there this season.
- Sheehan likely won’t pitch into later innings, but LA’s bullpen is well-rested and can cover the back half without big leaks.
- Both offenses have cooled off going into the weekend, and the wind conditions won’t be ideal for home runs.
- With two solid starters and capable pens? This total feels a little inflated.
2. Red Sox +1.5 Run Line (–156)
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
- You can’t keep Boston down when they’re at Fenway; they’ve won or kept games within a run in four of their last five when they’re billed as the underdogs.
- They’ve hit better at Fenway this season, and Bello’s home splits support a close game.
- LA hasn’t traveled well to AL parks and can get stuck against pitchers who have good sinker/changeup mixes.
3. Shohei Ohtani Anytime Home Run (+340)
Our Confidence Level: Low–Medium
Why Do We Like It?
- Ohtani’s been absolutely drilling right-handers and driving the ball with lift (batting .280 with a .671 slugging percentage and 23 home runs off right‑handers this season).
- Fenway’s short porch in right field is perfect if he turns on one.
- At this price, it’s definitely worth a shot on one of the game’s best left-handed bats in a hitter’s park like Fenway!
Tonight’s Game Call
Bello’s been good when he’s at home all season; he keeps runs off the board and the base traffic light. The Sox usually give him decent support at Fenway, but Sheehan probably won’t stick around for more than 5 innings because Boston’s lineup will force deep counts. Even so, the numbers like LA to pull out the win, even though they’re on the road.
If Boston doesn’t take advantage in the early innings, LA’s bench and bullpen will tip it. The value’s pretty thin either way, but backing the Dodgers to take it is the best angle.
Best Bets Recap
- Under 10 Total Runs (–115): ★★★★☆
- Red Sox +1.5 Run Line (–156): ★★★☆☆
- Shohei Ohtani Anytime HR (+340): ★★☆☆☆ (longshot)
Don’t forget to check the latest odds on one of our best betting sites! Lines can shift closer to first pitch, so always make sure you’ve got the updated prices before you bet.
Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Red Sox 3
We think it’ll be an action-packed game in the early innings, but in the end? The Dodgers’ bullpen will get them over the finish line in the series opener!
