Alex De Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic Preview & Prediction (July 7, 2025)
We are already into Week 2 of Wimbledon, and the next week will be a busy one for the players who made it through.
At the end of Week 1, it seemed like upsets would be the talk of the tournament, as 23 seeded players got knocked out in Round 1. But most of the heavyweights survived, and Novak Djokovic is one of them (of course, he is).
Djokovic is the GOAT of the grass court, and he’ll be playing Alex De Minaur on Centre Court tomorrow (July 7). De Minaur is the dark horse, but he’s fast and he wants a crack at the GOAT; he had to withdraw last year before his quarter with Novak due to a hip tear.
Can De Minaur defeat Djokovic in the fourth round? We’ve got some thoughts! Look below for player profiles, head-to-head stats, betting odds, tactical matchups, our two best bets that look solid, and a long-shot option for the daredevils!
Match Details
- Matchup: Alex De Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic
- Date & Time: July 7, 1:30 pm BST / 8:30 am ET; Round of 32/16 at SW19
- Venue: Centre Court, All England Club
- How To Watch: ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+ in the U.S. (match starts around 8:30 am ET)
- Stakes: Djokovic is trying to win his eighth Wimbledon; De Minaur wants to get to a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time
Player Profiles & Form
What do you need to know about these two players? The following:
Novak Djokovic
- Age 38
- 7-time Wimbledon champion; has 24 Grand Slam titles
- Reached his 100th ATP title in Geneva before Wimbledon
- 20–0 in first-round matches at SW19; hasn’t dropped a set this year
- Minor concerns: His foot speed isn’t what it was, and he’s had a few unforced losses this season
Alex de Minaur
- Age 26, ranked world No. 11
- Known for his insane speed and court coverage (his nickname is “The Speed Demon”
- Has dropped only one set in the first three rounds
- His first-serve percentage hovers around 54%; he doesn’t generate a lot of aces and has a hard time winning shorter points outright
Head‑to‑Head & Grass Court Edge
- Head-to-head: Djokovic is in front 3–1, including straight-set wins at the 2023 Australian Open and the Monte Carlo 2024.
- Wimbledon history: De Minaur reached the quarterfinals last year but had to withdraw due to injury before playing Djokovic.
- Grass comparison: Djokovic controls baseline exchanges and neutralizes pace better than anyone on this surface. De Minaur moves really well and has had success on grass at smaller events, but his first serve doesn’t generate a lot of free points, and his forehand can break down under sustained pressure.
Betting Odds & Market
Tossing some money down on this one? Here are the latest betting odds and lines courtesy of FanDuel:
| Player | Moneyline | Total Games | Games Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
De Minaur | +450 | Over 35.5 (-118) | +6.5 (-126) |
Djokovic | -630 | Under 35.5 (-112) | -6.5 (-108) |
Tactical Matchup
- Djokovic will attack de Minaur’s serve immediately and look to control rallies by hitting into the corners and keeping the ball low. His return puts pressure on second serves, and he’ll use his backhand to pin de Minaur behind the baseline.
- De Minaur is fast and can extend rallies, but his first serve averages under 120 mph and doesn’t set up short balls. He’ll need to play long points from defensive positions, which favors Djokovic over three-out-of-five.
The likeliest outcome? Djokovic pressures de Minaur’s serve in almost every set, controls return games with good placement, and wins the majority of rallies once de Minaur is pushed behind the baseline.
Our Best Bets
With the odds heavily favoring Djokovic, the real value lies in how you choose to bet the match. Here are our top three betting recommendations based on form, matchup, and risk level:
Best Bet #1: Novak Djokovic Moneyline (−550 to −600)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (High)
Why do we like it?
Djokovic hasn’t dropped a match before the Wimbledon quarterfinals in nearly a decade. De Minaur doesn’t have the serve or forehand to hurt him over five sets.
This line is wide, but it’s grounded; Djokovic has the advantage in this matchup in every scoring area unless something goes physically wrong.
Best Bet #2: Under 36.5 Total Games (Odds: ~−115 to −135)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate)
Why do we like it?
If this ends in straight sets, and it usually does for Djokovic against players who are in de Minaur’s tier, the total lands well under. Even a 4-setter with one uneven frame stays in range.
De Minaur’s serve numbers drop against elite returners, and Djokovic doesn’t give away many loose stretches once he’s up a break.
Caution: If one set gets to a tiebreak or de Minaur extends the match with a close second or third, this total could get tight.
Long-shot Bet: Djokovic First Set Correct Score – 6–3 or 6–4 (Odds: ~+400 to +500)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆ (Low)
Why do we like it?
One break is usually enough for Djokovic to close out the opener. De Minaur doesn’t hit through the court or build free points on his serve, and that gives Djokovic the space to take control by the middle of the set.
This is a good value play if you’re looking for something closer than full-game spreads.
Caution: This bet falls apart if Djokovic misfires on returns in de Minaur’s service games and allows him to hold at 30 or better.e range. He’s come back from one-set deficits before without dropping the match.
Alex De Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic: Who Heads to the Quarterfinals?
For Djokovic, this is just another Monday on his routine stop to Wimbledon’s final weekend. His return game, control from the baseline, and ability to close out sets without giving up leads all put him in a much stronger position here.
De Minaur is fast and a great competitor, but from what we’ve seen, he just doesn’t have the first serve or shotmaking that pushes Djokovic out of his patterns.
Our Final Match Prediction
Winner: Novak Djokovic Scoreline: 6–3, 6–4, 6–2 Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
Djokovic will control the rallies and pick apart de Minaur’s service patterns. Unless something unexpected happens physically to Djokovic? This is over in three sets.
Best Bets Recap
- Djokovic ML (−550 to −600): ★★★★☆
- Under 36.5 total games: ★★★☆☆
- First set score: 6–3 or 6–4 (+400 to +500): ★★☆☆☆
If you want to play it safer, the moneyline is the best bet for you! And if you want better value without backing an upset, you should stick to game totals or a specific set score.
Remember to check the lines as we get closer to the start time as they do often change. If you haven’t placed your bets yet and are still looking to, take a look at our recommendations for the most trusted online sportsbooks to get started.
