Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction (June 9, 2025)
The Cubs are coming into Philly at 40–25, and are up against a Phillies squad that’s a mere three games back at 37–28. Both teams are in playoff position and will have more than capable arms on the mound: Matthew Boyd for Chicago and Zack Wheeler for Philly.
Who do we think will get the win? Will it be the Phils or the Cubs? Keep scrolling to see what we predict and our picks for the best bets!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs (40-25) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (37-28)
- Date & Time: Monday, June 9, at 6:45 pm ET
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- TV Coverage: NBCS‑PH (Phillies) and Marquee Sports Network (Cubs)
- Weather Forecast: Pleasant evening conditions around 74°F
Prediction Breakdown
48.3%
51.7%
According to GamblingSite.com
Betting Odds
As of now, here are the latest odds and lines courtesy of ESPN BET:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Cubs | +1.5 (-160) | +130 | Over 7.5 (-120) |
Phillies | -1.5 (+135) | -155 | Under 7.5 (+100) |
Head-to-Head Snapshot
How do Chicago and Philly look when we compare their records? Look below:
- Cubs: 40–25 (20–14 away)
- Phillies: 37–28 (19–12 home)
- Last series: Phillies took 2 of 3 at Wrigley in April
- Last 10 meetings: Phillies are ahead 7–3
- Totals in those games: Unders went 6–3–1
Season Stats Comparison
When we line up their season-long numbers side by side, you can see the way the Cubs and Phillies win games. The following is a comparison of their averages in ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rates.
| Stat | Cubs | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
AVG | .261 | .252 |
ERA | 3.66 | 4.04 |
WHIP | 1.22 | 1.30 |
K/9 | 7.83 | 9.41 |
Injury Report
Both teams are missing important starters in the rotation, and that could affect bullpen usage and depth across the series. Below is who’s currently sidelined.
- Cubs: Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad on IL
- Phillies: Zack Wheeler returning from paternity; Aaron Nola on IL through June 13
Key Storylines
This game features two in-form starters, bullpen performance that could become a factor by the sixth inning, and historical trends that point toward lower run totals.
Pitching Matchup
- Matthew Boyd (Cubs): 5–3, 3.01 ERA, 70 strikeouts
- Zack Wheeler (Phillies): 6–2, 2.96 ERA, 94 strikeouts; the edge goes to Wheeler with a lower ERA and a higher K rate
Low-Scoring Trend
- After rest days, Phillies games have gone under 30–19–1 this season
- April 27’s meeting ended 3–1
Bullpen Strength
- Cubs’ pen had MLB’s lowest ERA since mid-May
- The Phillies pushed Taijuan Walker to the pen after the bullpen ERA rose to 4.65
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
How do Wheeler and Boyd fare when compared? Here are the pitcher breakdowns:
| Pitcher | Stat Line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Matthew Boyd (Cubs) | 5–3, 3.01 ERA, 70 SO | Left-hander coming off three straight outings under 3 earned runs. Has mixed his slider and changeup more often this month. |
Zack Wheeler (Phillies) | 6–2, 2.96 ERA, 94 SO | Continues to handle heavy innings. Has reached at least 6 IP in 9 of 11 starts, with 0 HR allowed in his last four outings. |
Wheeler looks to have a slight advantage with a better ERA and strikeout rate. Boyd is solid, but the Phillies are in possession of the pitcher advantage.
Recent Form & Trends
- Phillies as Favorites: Philadelphia has closed as the moneyline favorite in 39 of their 65 games (61.5%), including 9 of their last 12 at home.
- Post-Rest Unders: The under is 30–19–1 this season when the Phillies play after an off day. Opponents are averaging just 3.2 runs in those games.
- Cubs Bullpen: Over their last 14 games, Cubs relievers have combined for a 0.40 ERA across 33.2 innings. They’ve allowed only 1 earned run in that stretch, the lowest mark in MLB.
Team Comparison
The Cubs are winning behind strong pitching and one of the best-performing bullpens over the past two weeks. The Phillies bring more strikeout-heavy arms and a lineup that’s been more productive in recent games.
| Category | Cubs | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
Runs Scored | Up and down over the last 10 games | Consistent output from the top of the lineup |
ERA / WHIP | 3.66 / 1.22 | 4.04 / 1.30 |
Strikeouts | 7.83 K/9 | 9.41 K/9 |
Chicago’s bullpen has been lights out, but the offense has noticeably cooled in the last week. Philadelphia’s advantage comes from higher strikeout rates and a more reliable offense in recent series.
Player Prop Highlight
A name to watch in the prop market? Kyle Schwarber! He gets on base and makes hard contact, especially when he’s hitting against southpaws.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI)
- Hits ≥1: Over −102
- Total Bases ≥1.5: Over +175
Best Bets
We have some best bets for this game: the full-game line and a decent prop option!
Full‑Game Side Bet: Phillies Moneyline (−155)
Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts and averages over 6 innings per outing. The Cubs are without Imanaga and Assad, and that thins out their rotation depth. The Phillies have won 7 of their last 10 against Chicago, so the matchup favors Philly at home.
Full‑Game Total Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (+100)
Philadelphia games after rest days have gone under in 30 of 50 spots this year. Boyd has held opponents to three earned runs or less in five straight starts. The Cubs’ bullpen has a 0.40 ERA over the last two weeks, so the total is priced low for a reaso,n and it’s still worth backing.
Prop Bet: Kyle Schwarber Over 1 hit
Schwarber has at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games; Boyd has allowed a .279 average to left-handed hitters this season. Schwarber usually sees two at-bats against lefties and still gets late-inning chances versus right-handed relievers, and that increases his volume.
Our Final Take: Cubs at Phillies
Philadelphia has the better starting pitcher on the mound and a healthier lineup going into the game. Wheeler’s ability to cover six or more innings with limited walks gives the Phillies way more flexibility with their bullpen. Boyd has been good, but he’s facing a lineup that’s produced against left-handers all season long.
The Cubs’ bullpen is in top form, but they’ve been asked to do a lot recently due to injuries in the rotation. That might catch up to them over a full series. Unless the Cubs can get an early lead and protect it with Boyd’s pitch count low, the matchup sets up better for the Phillies to take control in the second half!
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 4 – Cubs 2
Wheeler gives the Phillies the stronger starting option. He’s gone six-plus innings with minimal traffic and has kept the ball in the park over his last four starts.
Boyd has pitched well lately, but he’ll be up against a tougher stretch of the order than he has in recent games. The Phillies have been much better at moving runners and putting pressure on opposing starters. Their bullpen has managed close games without needing to call in reinforcements. The Cubs’ relievers have been good, but they are coming off a heavier workload because of injuries in the rotation.
- Confidence Level: Moderate to high! This is based on starting pitcher durability, bullpen usage patterns, and recent scoring trends after rest days.
- Suggested Bet Stack: Phillies Moneyline + Under 7.5 for a tight two-leg parlay.
FYI: Don’t forget to confirm the lineups, the final pitching assignments, injury news, and line movement before you make any bets at one of our trusted online betting sites!
