Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Betting Picks (November 17th, 2025)
The Dallas Cowboys will officially be on their last leg on Monday Night Football, where they’ll be -185 favorites to defeat the Las Vegas Raiders.
Coming in with a pedestrian 3-5-1 record, Dallas has little hope of claiming the NFC East title at this point, and may need to win out just to sneak into the NFC playoffs.
That journey starts on MNF, where Dallas will be 3.5-point favorites on the road. Las Vegas knows where they stand for 2025, as they are just 2-7 and clearly looking to build a winning foundation for next year.
So, are the Cowboys an easy bet, or should bettors cheer for the Raiders to play spoiler? I’ll turn over every stone as I inspect the odds and key matchups en route to my Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
- Date & Time: Monday, November 17th, 2025 | Kickoff at 8:15 pm ET
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, NV
- How to Watch: ABC/ESPN
The pricing indicates the Cowboys are the far more respected team, as they are almost four-point favorites despite this game not being played in Texas.
Neither defense is getting much love, as the 49.5 game total indicates we’re going to be in for plenty of scoring.
Storylines to Watch
The Dallas Cowboys have their backs against the wall in front of the nation on Monday Night Football.
There were high expectations for Big D (as there often are), but they have fallen short so far at a middling 3-5-1. Whether they can bounce back and get back on track in a winnable spot will be one of the key storylines for this game.
Here are a few more Cowboys vs. Raiders storylines to consider:
- Bower Outage: Brock Bowers returned from a knee injury to completely dominate (3 TDs) two weeks ago, then was barely involved last week. If the Raiders want to stage the upset, feeding their best offensive weapon would probably be wise.
- Aged Out: Pete Carroll was hired to restore a winning tradition to the Raiders’ sideline, but that hasn’t worked out at all. Could the 74-year old coach be a one-and-done hire if the Raiders don’t win here and close out the season strong?
- Sad Goodbyes: Perhaps the biggest storyline will be how Dallas responds after losing one of their own. Pass rusher Marshawn Kneeland died this past week and the Cowboys have to find a way to look past this tragedy and get a win.
Team Profiles
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are who we thought they were. Everyone said going into the season they’d be fun on offense and a disaster on defense. That’s been precisely their identity, with the surprise caveat that newcomer Javonte Williams has given their running game a jolt.
Dallas has also simply been inconsistent. One week they are giving the defending champion Eagles all they can handle and the next they can barely beat the Giants.
Here’s a quick look at how they’ve stood out in some key areas in 2025:
- Pass Happy: Whether by design or necessity, the Cowboys love to pass (5th highest pass rate) and they’ve excelled when doing it (3rd in passing yards). Dak Prescott and co. haven’t been perfect, but their success through the air has been a key reason they rank 4th in scoring on the season.
- No Defense: Dallas has big passing numbers at least partially because they have to. Their defense (31st in scoring) has been abysmal, as they rank bottom three both against the run and against the pass.
- Max Protect: Despite taking it to the air 60% of the time, Dallas has been remarkably good at keeping Dak Prescott protected. They allow the 3rd lowest sack rate in the NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders made huge changes this past offseason, hiring Pete Carroll as head coach, trading for quarterback Geno Smith, and spending a top-10 pick on Ashton Jeanty.
None of that has translated to much, as the team has just two wins through nine games. The team has never really seemed to be fully in sync due to injuries and so many changes.
Here’s where they stand out in some key metrics:
- Turnover Patrol: Geno Smith was brought in to be an upgrade under center when it comes to leadership and decision-making. That hasn’t really been the case, as he’s taken the 7th most sacks and has Las Vegas ranked dead last in interception rate.
- Failing Jeanty: Ashtony Jeanty is plenty involved, but the Raiders should try to be more balanced and properly utilize their prized draft pick. On the year, they have just a 41% rush rate, while their weak o-line has been responsible for the league’s second worst yards per carry average.
- Strong Up Front: Las Vegas has done a good job against the run on a per carry basis (4th). The problem is they are often trailing or even getting blown out, so the volume adds up and the overall numbers look worse than they might actually be.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Cowboys vs. Raiders matchups:
- Dak Prescott vs. the Las Vegas pass defense: Prescott will need to be aware of where Maxx Crosby is at all times, but the rest of this Raiders defense isn’t very scary. The NFL’s 3rd best passing offense should move the ball at will in this matchup.
- Ashton Jeanty vs. the Cowboys run defense: Las Vegas hasn’t run the ball as much as they’d like – nor as effectively as you’d hope – but Dallas (28th vs. the run) gives them one of the best matchups they’ve had on the ground all season.
- Turnover Battle: Both offenses have great matchups on paper, but something has to break in the turnover department. The Raiders (28th) can’t stop giving the ball away and Dallas (27th) is allergic to takeaways.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Check out the latest Cowboys vs. Raiders odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Cowboys | -3.5 (-108) | -185 | Over 50.5 (-108) |
Raiders | +3.5 (-112) | +154 | Under 50.5 (-112) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public is all over Dallas in this one, with 93% of the bets and 96% of the money backing the Cowboys despite being on the road.
- Record History: These two sides have only faced each other 13 times, with Las Vegas holding a slight 7-6 series advantage. They won the most recent clash (36-33) in an OT thriller, but Dallas won three in a row before that.
- ATS Tidbits: Both teams have been bad against the spread in 2025 (4-5). Dallas is just 1-4 ATS as the favorite this year and 2-4 against the spread in non-division games. The Raiders are 2-2 ATS at home and 3-4 against the spread as the underdog.
Best Bets for Cowboys vs. Raiders
Pick 1: Cowboys ML (-185) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Dallas has a weak record, but they could easily be 4-5 (or better) and have the vastly superior offense. They also have a little light at the end of the tunnel yet in regards to their playoff hopes, so they should show up and leave no doubt in this one.
Risks/What to Watch
Las Vegas is still at home and have played very competitive football the last two games, losing them by a combined four points. Dallas has the offensive edge, but they still tied or lost six times in 2025 and are obviously not the most reliable team.
Pick 2: Over 49.5 (-102) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
This game has no defense to get excited about, so we should anticipate plenty of scoring. Most Dallas games are either shootouts or they’re giving up a bunch of points, as the Over is 6-3 for them on the year.
Risks/What to Watch
Las Vegas is really bad offensively. It isn’t crazy to think their paltry offense could negatively impact the Over.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD (-145) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
You could probably talk me into a handful of touchdown scorer props for this game, but Jeanty’s price is to die for. He scored last week and has a TD in three of his last four games. Dallas has coughed up 10 total touchdowns to RBs in 2025 and rank 29th in red-zone defense.
Risks/What to Watch
The Raiders are not good offensively. Matchup be damned, they could always lay an egg and get shut out or simply have someone else luck into a touchdown.
Final Verdict: Cowboys Stay Alive With Big Road Win
My Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction is that Dallas will win with relative ease and that we get a mild shootout. I don’t think Dallas completely rolls in a blowout, but they will get a convincing win – one that is good enough to cover.
The Raiders will still contribute to the Over, as both defenses stink and the matchups are too good across the board to not produce a good amount of scoring.
Ultimately, Dallas has way more upside and they have more to play for. They also simply have a better o-line and a superior offense. Las Vegas will struggle to keep up, but they’ll score enough to keep it interesting and help all of my Cowboys vs. Raiders picks deliver.
Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Raiders 24
