Commanders vs. Packers Betting Preview & Prediction (September 11, 2025)
It’s Week 2 of the NFL, and on Thursday night at 8:15, the Commanders and the Packers will butt helmets at Lambeau Field in Cheese Country.
Week 1 at Lambeau looked like it was a reset of the NFC North. Micah Parsons showed up in a Packers uniform and destroyed Detroit’s game plan, and Jordan Love played amazing football.
That building didn’t get a lot of rest, because Washington is showing up with a rookie quarterback who’s about to find out what a short-week road trip to Green Bay feels like.
The Packers beat a legit contender in the Lions. And Washington? They beat the cr*p out of the NY Giants; it looked like they couldn’t move the ball out of neutral. But not so fast: anyone can look good against the Giants, and that doesn’t give you a pass at Lambeau.
Thursday night will be a reality check for both teams; Green Bay has been built to win, and Washington’s coming to Lambeau still wearing its training wheels. Prime time at this locale is no joke, and the Packers’ offensive line could use some work, which could work in Washington’s favor.
Will it be the Commanders or the Packers who end up with a 2-0 record after the game? Keep reading for the game details, main storylines, the latest betting odds and lines, and a slew of best bet and props picks!
Matchup Details
- Matchup: Washington Commanders (1-0) vs. Green Bay Packers (1-0)
- Game Details: Thursday, September 11, at 8:15 p.m. ET (Thursday Night Football)
- Location: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Week: NFL Week 2
- How To Watch: Streaming on Amazon Prime Video (TNF exclusive)
- Weather Forecast: The forecast is saying temps will be in the low 70s with light winds at kickoff, so it’ll be perfect night conditions at Soldier Field!
Game Context + Storylines
The Packers just beat a division rival using good balance across the roster, and the Commanders relied on a rookie quarterback and a heavy ground attack to get past the Giants. Look below for a breakdown of everything you need to know about this matchup!
Green Bay Packers
- Season Setup: Green Bay opened with a 27–13 win over Detroit. Jordan Love completed 18 of 27 passes for 236 yards, avoided turnovers, and got real support from a rushing attack that piled up 120 yards. Micah Parsons recorded a sack in his Packers debut and forced Detroit to adjust protections on nearly every series.
- Injuries / Availability: RT Zach Tom (pectoral) and LG Aaron Banks (shoulder) are both listed as questionable. Losing either player puts pressure on the line; losing both would force Green Bay to keep tight ends in protection packages more often; the depth up front isn’t looking good.
- Player Spotlights
- Micah Parsons: Made his Packers debut with a sack and multiple pressures. Now he will face Jayden Daniels, a quarterback he sacked over 10 times in college. Parsons is the main driver of Green Bay’s front seven.
Washington Commanders
- Season Setup: Washington piled up 220 rushing yards in a 23–6 win over New York. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels went 21-for-28 with 218 yards and a touchdown, adding 48 more on the ground. His ability to move the pocket and exploit defenses when lanes opened up kept the Giants at bay.
- Injuries / Availability: Washington is mostly healthy. Punter Tress Way (back) and DE Deatrich Wise Jr. (knee) are both still listed as questionable, but neither player is expected to change the matchup.
- Player Spotlights
- Jayden Daniels: The rookie completed over 75% of his throws in Week 1 and added almost 50 yards rushing. His ability to extend plays and threaten defenses on designed keepers forces opponents to do extra prep.
- Deebo Samuel: Caught 7 passes for 77 yards and scored a rushing touchdown in his first game with Washington. His ability to line up all over the field gives Daniels a safety valve against Green Bay’s pressure.
Historical / Situational Angles
- The Packers under Matt LaFleur have averaged more than 27 points per game in prime-time contests at Lambeau Field.
- Washington has repeatedly failed to produce in prime-time settings, but this roster has new personnel and a different quarterback profile, and that’s not nothing!
- Thursday games usually benefit the home team, but Green Bay’s offensive line uncertainty could erase that edge if certain starters don’t play.
Betting Odds Snapshot
The odds are pretty tight for this game! Here are the numbers according to ESPN:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Commanders | +3.5 (-120) | +145 | Over 48.5 (-105) |
Packers | -3.5 (EVEN) | -170 | Under 48.5 (-115) |
- GamblingSite.com Win Probability: Packers 57.8%, Commanders 42.2%
Our Best Bet Recs
Spread Pick: Commanders +3.5 (–120)
Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Green Bay could be without both RT Zach Tom and LG Aaron Banks, and that puts Jordan Love behind a weakened front against a Washington line that just brutalized New York’s protection.
- Washington’s run game has been built to drain the clock and limit Love’s total possessions.
- Their defensive front can generate pressure with four, which lets them drop more bodies into coverage.
Risk Factor: Green Bay has covered a lot of prime-time games at Lambeau. If Love gets protection? He can pick on Washington’s corners.
Total Pick: Over 48.5 (–105)
Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why Do We Like It?
- The Packers scored 27 on Detroit, and Washington ripped off 220 rushing yards and got impact plays from Deebo Samuel.
- Washington’s defense can stonewall the run, but they give up vertical shots, and that’s a big strength of Love’s game.
- Under LaFleur, Green Bay’s offense averages over 27 points in night games at Lambeau.
Risk Factor: If Green Bay’s offensive line buckles, its offense could stall and pull the total under.
Moneyline Lean: Commanders +145
Our Confidence Level: 4/10
Why Do We Like It?
- If you’re already taking Washington to cover, their moneyline offers some extra value.
- A short week with offensive line injuries is exactly the kind of spot where an underdog can take it.
Risk Factor: The Packers have a really strong record at home in these spots, and fading them outright is pretty high-risk.
Our Props Betting Picks
Deebo Samuel (Commanders): Usage all over the formation makes him Washington’s top red-zone option. Scored in Week 1 on the ground, and Daniels relies on him when drives stall out.
- Odds est.: +140 to +160
- Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Romeo Doubs (Packers): Love’s first look inside the 20. With O-line injuries, deep shots might shrink, which gives Doubs more end-zone targets.
- Odds est.: +170
- Our Confidence Level: 6/10
- Jayden Daniels (Commanders): Rushing Yards Over: Green Bay’s rush packages will flush him from the pocket. Daniels ran for 48 yards in Week 1 and has a history of hurting defenses on scrambles. | Our Confidence Level: 7/10
- Jordan Love (Packers): If Green Bay’s line is missing starters, the run game won’t get going, and that puts more pressure on Love’s arm to move the chains. | Our Confidence Level: 6/10
- Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders) – Rushing Yards Over: Carried 18 times in Week 1 as part of Washington’s 220-yard ground attack. Expect a similar load on Thursday. | Our Confidence Level: 6.5/10
- Christian Watson (Packers) – Receiving Yards Over (if he plays): Washington’s secondary has given up chunk plays, and Watson is Green Bay’s best vertical threat. | Our Confidence Level: 6/10
- Micah Parsons – 1+ Sack: Parsons got a sack in his Packers debut and now gets a rookie QB he owned in college. Even during a short week, Parsons forces breakdowns. | Our Confidence Level: 8/10
- Interception Prop – Jayden Daniels to Throw 1+ INT: It’s his first road game under the lights at Lambeau. Green Bay’s secondary does really well when the front speeds up timing, and Daniels is still adjusting to NFL reads. | Our Confidence Level: 6/10
The Commanders Send the Packers Packing
Final Score Prediction: Commanders 27 – Packers 24
Washington covers the +3.5 spread, and the game finishes over the 48.5 total!
Did you think we were gonna pick the Packers just ‘cuz they’re at home? Nah, we are siding with Washington. Their ground game travels, they’re healthier, and Daniels is a player that Green Bay hasn’t had to deal with and won’t know what to do with.
Yes, the Packers have history on their side at Lambeau, but with some of their main players missing up front? Washington has the better side of this number!
- Washington’s run game is reliable, and its lineup is healthier than Green Bay’s up front.
- The Packers usually deliver at Lambeau in night games, but missing starters along the line could put Jordan Love under pressure all night.
- The 48.5 total is reachable; both teams proved that they can create explosive plays in their Week 1 games.
- Best prop angles: The three we like are Deebo Samuel anytime TD, Jayden Daniels rushing yards, and a Micah Parsons sack.
- Upset potential: The Commanders’ moneyline (+145) ties directly to the cover.
Best Bets Recap
- Spread | Commanders +3.5: 7/10
- Total | Over 48.5: 6/10
- Moneyline Lean | Commanders +145: 4/10
Get set for Thursday Night Football! Back your Commanders vs. Packers picks with confidence and lock in the best value using our top-rated sports betting sites.
