Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction & Betting Picks (November 16th, 2025)
The NFL touches down in Madrid, Spain this weekend, where the Miami Dolphins will “host” the Washington Commanders as -148 betting favorites.
Condolences to the people of Madrid, as this is not the best NFL game they could have been awarded. In fact, both sides are missing some serious star power, as big names like Jayden Daniels and Tyreek Hill won’t be on hand due to injury.
No matter, as these teams still offer some offensive upside, as a healthy 47.5 game total suggests. The early Commanders vs. Dolphins odds indicate a close game (2.5-point spread) and a mild shootout could be in the cards, so here’s to hoping everyone in Spain gets the show they deserve.
Even if it’s not the best game the NFL could have given Madrid, you can at least profit from it. If you’re not sure how to do that, join me as I inspect the latest odds, analyze the key matchups, and work my way to a Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Commanders (3-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-7)
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 16th, 2025 | Kickoff at 8:30 am ET
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain.
- How to Watch: NFL Network
This game is priced as a borderline toss-up. Miami has the slight edge on a neutral field, but the tight spread suggests a lack of faith in them as the favorite.
Both teams are dealing with injuries and are having trouble closing games, while neither team is overly impressive defensively. The game is also in a neutral setting outside the United States, so nobody has home field advantage.
The 47.5 game total reflects the weak defense and offensive upside, indicating a game that could yield a good amount of scoring.
Storylines to Watch
Both of these teams are likely dead in the water with identical 3-7 records. Miami seems to still be fighting the good fight, but probably need to win out (or close to it) to have a shot at sniffing the playoffs.
Washington, on the other hand, is without star quarterback Jayden Daniels, who suffered an elbow injury in his last game.
Here are a few more storylines to monitor for this game:
- Playing to Stay: Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is probably playing for his job, while quarterback Tua Tagovailoa also needs a good stretch run to convince the Miami brass that he’s their QB of the future.
- Explosive Plays: Miami has two dynamite offensive weapons in De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle and they could be in for a lot of work against a Washington defense that ranks 31st in yards per play allowed.
- Hawaii Bowl: Tagovailoa is worth mentioning for a second reason, as he is Hawaiian and will be facing another quarterback – Marcus Mariota – who is also Hawaiian. It seems trivial, but there’s a decent amount of history connecting these two as well.
Team Profiles
Washington Commanders
Washington is not the same team they were last year. They got used to pulling out close wins and taking the league by surprise, but the NFL adapted and now they’re 3-7 through 10 games.
The Commanders have been dealt a rough hand in terms of injuries, as star wide receiver Terry McLaurin is also not going to be on hand for this game. This offense is dynamic when at full strength, but that hasn’t been the case for much of 2025.
- Musical Chairs: Jayden Daniels has been in and out of the lineup all year due to injury and his latest may be a season-ender. Mariota can benefit and parlay this time into a starting gig next year, but it’s led to the league’s 10th worst offense.
- Ground Control: The good news is the Commanders have the ability to move the ball on the ground. They have a decent stable of running backs and two quarterbacks who can make magic happen with their feet. Washington comes in ranked 7th in the league in rushing yards per game.
- Sieve: Washington was solid defensively in 2024, but injuries and weak offensive play have contributed to an epic collapse. They enter this Madrid battle with the 3rd most points allowed per game (28) on the season.
Miami Dolphins
Miami hasn’t been any better in terms of wins, but they have been the more cohesive unit on the offensive side of the ball. Health under center has helped, as often concussed passer Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t missed a single game.
Stud running back De’Von Achane has powered an explosive offense, but one that has certainly been inconsistent and has failed to rise up and produce against top shelf competition.
- Max Protect: Miami has done a good job keeping Tua Tagovailoa off his back. They rank 11th in sack rate as an o-line, which is great for a guy who has a history of head injuries.
- Dynamite: De’Von Achane was held in check more than Miami would like earlier in the year, but he’s certainly still been an explosive asset. He’s the main reason why their offense remains dynamic and presently ranks 10th in yards per rush.
- Hands Off: Another thing the Dolphins do well is avoid silly penalties. They give their coaches headaches for other reasons, but come into week 11 ranked 12th in penalties per game.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Commanders vs. Dolphins matchups:
- Washington’s running game vs. Miami’s run defense: The Dolphins have looked a bit better against the run in recent weeks, but on the year they’ve been awful (26th). They also have to deal with Washington, who has been effective (7th) on the ground this year.
- De’Von Achane vs. Washington’s defensive line: At one time the Commanders had a strong front seven. Their run defense has sulked in 2025, however. They own the league’s 8th worth run defense and it should struggle to contain an explosive back like Achane.
- Air Tua: This should be a great spot for Tua Tagovailoa to pop off. Washington has a middling pass rush and a terrible secondary (31st against the pass), giving him one of the best matchups he’s had all year.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Check out the latest Commanders vs. Dolphins odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Commanders | +2.5 (-108) | +126 | Over 47.5 (-104) |
Dolphins | -2.5 (-112) | -148 | Under 47.5 (-118) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public action has greatly favored Miami. Over 64% of the bets have backed the Dolphins and 85% of the money is on Miami as well.
- Record History: These teams have only faced each other 16 times in league history. Miami holds a 10-6 series edge and won the most recent meeting (45-15) in 2023.
- ATS Tidbits: Washington has been just as bad (3-7) ATS this year, while they are 1-6 against the spread as the underdog. Miami has gone 5-5 ATS overall and are 1-2 against the spread when favored.
Best Bets for Commanders vs. Dolphins
Pick 1: Miami Dolphins ML (-148) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Miami is the better team right now. They actually have their starting quarterback and have simply looked more cohesive over the past several weeks. If they win here and get hot, they have a clearer path to sneaking into the playoffs.
Risks/What to Watch
It’s a neutral setting, both teams are bad, and Washington has nothing to lose. They could easily rise up and dispatch a Dolphins team that is dangerously close to checking out.
Pick 2: Over 47.5 (-104) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Both offenses still have dynamic and explosive talent to work with. Marcus Mariota can be a fun dual threat passer and is one of the better backup QBs in the league. Neither defense is particularly scary, either, so let’s hear it for a show in Spain!
Risks/What to Watch
Mariota could crumble in another start, while the Dolphins and Commanders are both weak by the numbers. Commanders games are just 2-3 when they’re the away underdog, too.
Pick 3: Prop Play – De’Von Achane Anytime TD Scorer (-175) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
De’Von Achane is the most explosive player in this game and he has been in a groove. The Commanders have coughed up 10 total scores to RBs in 2025 and he’s coming off a two-touchdown game last week.
Risks/What to Watch
Scoring touchdowns is hard. Washington isn’t good, but they should do everything they can to neutralize Miami’s best offensive weapon in an effort to keep him out of the endzone.
Final Verdict: Dolphins Stay Alive in Fun Spain Rout
I think Miami still has something to play for and Washington is running on fumes. Marcus Mariota brings enough to the table to keep things interesting in the first half, while I think the Commanders can help get us to the Over.
That should be a sweat, but Miami to win and cover won’t be. Achane is looking at a huge game as Miami puts up plenty of points and keeps themselves alive in the competitive AFC playoff picture.
Final Score Prediction: Miami Dolphins 34, Commanders 17
