Cavaliers vs. Pacers Game 4 Preview – May 11, 2025
Hallelujah for Cleveland fans! The Cavs finally got through Indiana’s defense, and that makes this a whole lot more interesting.
Game 3 felt different than the first two. Donovan Mitchell went off again, Cleveland’s full lineup of starters was back on the court, and for the first time this series, the Pacers looked like they didn’t have all of the answers. Haliburton had a struggle sesh, the energy dropped, and Game 4 could be a turning point for either team.
Quick Overview
- Tip-off: 8:00 pm ET
- Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
- Broadcast: TNT, truTV, MAX
- Series Status: Pacers lead 2–1
- Current Odds: Cavaliers -4.5 | O/U 230.5
Storylines to Watch
What (and who) should you be watching in Game 4 of this series? Read on to see the storylines that we are most interested in!
Mitchell Lights It Up
You cannot ignore Donovan Mitchell’s heater. He followed up a 45-point Game 2 with 43 more in Game 3, and he made it look like child’s play—pull-ups, drives, step-backs, you name it. If Indiana doesn’t tighten up their coverage, he could smoke them again.
Haliburton Needs a Reset
Tyrese Haliburton had his worst playoff performance yet in Game 3, scoring only four points, and he had very little influence on the flow of the offense. When he’s on? Indiana moves like a well-oiled machine. But when he’s off, the ball stalls, and they all look stuck. He doesn’t have to force anything, but he does have to get control again.
Cleveland’s Core Back on the Floor
The difference in Game 3 wasn’t only because of Mitchell’s scoring. For the first time in the series, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter were all there, and the Cavs looked balanced, better on both ends, and way more capable of slowing down Indiana.
Injury Updates
Like we said, the Cavs are back to full strength, with Garland, Mobley, and Hunter, and Cleveland hasn’t reported any other injuries.
The Pacers are still without Isaiah Jackson, who is still sidelined with a torn right Achilles tendon.
Betting Odds & Trends
The sportsbooks have spoken, and they’re leaning toward Cleveland. Below is where things currently stand at FanDuel going into Game 4:
- Spread: Cavaliers -4.5
- Moneyline: Cavaliers -200 | Pacers +168
- Total: Over/Under 231.5
Trends
- Cavaliers: Cleveland has covered in six of their last 10 and continues to cash the over at a high clip this season. Just under 60% of their games have gone above the total, which tracks with how they’ve been playing—fast breaks, high shot volume, and lately, a lot of Mitchell.
- Pacers: Indiana is 7-3 in their last 10 and has hit the over in more than half of their games this year. Even with Haliburton’s rough Game 3, this is still one of the highest-scoring teams in the playoffs.
- If you’re betting totals, this series has had a lot of shootouts, and with both teams firing off threes early and often, that 231.5 line could be in danger again!
Key Matchups
There are a lot of balls in the air for Game 4, but here are the main matchups that could be a deciding factor in who takes it!
- Donovan Mitchell vs. Pacers’ Defense: Right now, it’s Mitchell’s series. He’s picking his spots, creating off the dribble, and pulling up from wherever he wants. The Pacers haven’t figured out how to slow him down; not with single coverage, not with doubles, and not when they attempt to switch. Indiana either changes their approach or it could get torched again.
- Tyrese Haliburton vs. Cavaliers’ Backcourt: There’s a lot of pressure on Haliburton to bounce back, and that all starts with how he handles Garland and Strus pressing up on him. The Cavs are giving him less clean looks and forcing decisions earlier in the shot clock. If Haliburton can’t reset the pace, Indiana’s half-court sets could stall out again.
- Frontcourt Battle: Game 3 showed how much of a problem Cleveland’s frontcourt can be. Mobley and Allen owned the boards and made life almost impossible around the rim. Indiana’s bigs need to hit back. Then Siakam can stretch the floor, and Turner can hit from deep, something that neither player did enough inside to counter Cleveland’s length and rim protection.
Best Bets
Putting money on Game 4? Below are the four angles that we think make the most sense based on what we’ve seen so far:
- Cavaliers -4.5: With the full lineup back and Mitchell playing like it’s Game 7 every night, Cleveland has the upper hand. If they come with that same energy they had in Game 3, covering this number is well within reach.
- Over 231.5 Total Points: These teams like to run. Between the Pacers’ fast-paced offense and Cleveland’s recent scoring surge, this line is definitely in range for another high-output night, especially if Haliburton shows up.
- Donovan Mitchell Over 30.5 Points: He’s averaging 44 over his last two. Unless Indiana throws something completely new at him, there’s no reason to expect a drop-off.
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points: After putting up only four in Game 3, this feels like it’s a good bounce-back spot. If he’s aggressive early, the number is low enough to clear before the fourth quarter.
Projected Starting Lineups
There shouldn’t be any surprises in the starting fives, as both teams have indicated that they’re going with the same crews from Game 3.
Cavaliers
Here’s who is starting on the Cavs:
- PG: Darius Garland
- SG: Donovan Mitchell
- SF: Max Strus
- PF: Evan Mobley
- C: Jarrett Allen
Pacers
And the Pacers’ starting five is as follows:
- PG: Tyrese Haliburton
- SG: Andrew Nembhard
- SF: Aaron Nesmith
- PF: Pascal Siakam
- C: Myles Turner
Our Take: Game 4 Betting Recap & Prediction
Game 4 comes with a lot of pressure for both squads. Cleveland is looking to even it up, and Indiana wants to hold their ground before they get back on the road.
Garland, Mobley, and Hunter are back in the lineup, and the Cavs looked way more composed and organized in Game 3. Their defense was solid, their shot selection was better, and Mitchell absolutely cooked. Allen made life miserable for Indiana around the hoop, and the team as a whole looked so much more balanced.
Haliburton has to get it together and get back in the driver’s seat. When he’s in control, Indiana’s offense moves, and their shooters get way better looks. They also need more from Siakam, who can’t afford to coast through another game. If their starters bring energy and the bench helps out, they can make Game 4 competitive, but they’ll have to be the early aggressors.
Final Prediction: Cavaliers 119, Pacers 114
Mitchell’s in a groove, the Cavs are whole again, and their defense looked locked in last time out. Indiana does have the talent, and it could very well be a close game, but unless Haliburton gets back to his usual self, we think that Cleveland will take this one.
Best Bets Recap
Here’s a quick recap of where the best value sits if you’re betting on Game 4:
- Cavaliers -4.5
- Over 230.5 Total Points
- Mitchell Over 30.5 Points
- Haliburton Over 17.5 Points
Only bet what you can afford to, and never chase losses! And you should always check a few betting sites before you make your bet so that you can get the best odds.
