Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Prediction & Top Picks (June 26, 2025)
The Braves were in control of this series. That’s right, we said “were.” Past tense. Atlanta back-to-back wins, and the Mets? Welp, they had only four runs total and one extra-base hit during two games, and that’s no bueno. The Braves’ pitching was keeping the ball in the park, and the lineup kept locating barrels; seven hitters got on base at least twice in Game 2.
But Game 3 was not the same. Juan Soto happened, and no one can blame the team’s skid on him. That man blasted two homers and now has 19 this season. What we previously thought was gonna be a sweep? Wrong. The Mets bested the Braves 7-3.
So, what can we expect for the next one? And is this a turnaround for the Mets?
Griffin Canning gets the ball tonight for New York after the win on Wednesday. Atlanta is going with Grant Holmes, and he comes in with a 3.71 ERA and hasn’t given up a homer in over a month.
The Mets still need more than just Pete Alonso to stay in it. Their 5-through-9 hitters are now a combined 6-for-36 in the series, and that’s where things can fall apart. But they did snap the skid and it won’t be a sweep, so they’ve got a chance to build something! And hey, at least the temperature will only be in the 80s instead of the high 90s, so that’s something!
Look below for all you need to know about the game; we’ve got pitching stats, matchup analysis, betting odds, and our three best bets!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Atlanta Braves (37-42) vs. New York Mets (47-34)
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 26 at 7:10 pm ET
- Location: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
- How To Watch: MLB Network, SNY, and FDSSO
- Weather Forecast: Mostly cloudy skies with temperatures around 75°F
- Series Context: The Braves have won every one of the first five meetings this season
Latest Betting Odds (Updated June 26)
Thinking of putting a little money on the Braves or the Mets? Here are the latest odds and lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook!
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Braves | -1.5 (+152) | -104 | Over 8.5 (-118) |
Mets | +1.5 (-184) | -112 | Under 8.5 (-104) |
- First 5 Innings ML: Braves +168
Probable Starters
We’ve got two righties taking the hill: Grant Holmes just had his best outing of the season, and Griffin Canning did not.
Atlanta: Grant Holmes (RHP)
- Season stat line: 4‑6 record, 3.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 97 K in 85 IP
- Recent performance: 5.2 scoreless innings vs. Marlins
New York: Griffin Canning (RHP)
- Season stat line: 7‑3, 3.91 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 67 K in 73.2 IP
- Previous outing vs. Braves: 3.2 IP, 4 ER allowed
Biggest Storylines
What’s been happening with these two clubs? Here’s the roundup of how they’ve been playing and why!
- Mets Adjust Bullpen: New York brought up Brandon Waddell and Jonathan Pintaro after a bad stretch exposed late-game relief. There were several blown saves and high-leverage walks that forced the change.
- Mets Slump: Before tonight’s game, the Mets had dropped 10 of their last 11. So they ended their slide, but their offense hasn’t stabilized.
- Braves Offense Inconsistent: Outside of Acuña, Olson, and Baldwin? Production has dropped off. Verdugo hasn’t driven in a run in over a week, and Rosario’s OBP has cratered.
- Sean Murphy Returns: He’s back behind the plate after a long absence due to a rib injury. The Braves are 6–2 in games he’s started this year; his presence could stabilize the bottom of the order.
- Braves Bullpen & Strong Rotation: The Braves’ rotation ranks top 10 in ERA and leads MLB in xFIP. Starters are regularly working into the sixth or seventh, and relievers are holding opponents to a .210 average in the late innings. Opposing lineups haven’t been able to get more than three runs in a single inning over the past five games.
Matchup Analysis
Atlanta won all five games against the Mets this season until the latest meetup. It’s still uneven overall, but NY gave a reminder that they are not to be trifled with at Citi Field.
- The Braves are 5–1 vs. the Mets this season
- 4 of those wins were by 3 runs or more
- The Braves are 15–27 on the road
- Mets are 28–12 at home
Hitter vs Pitcher Trends
- Matt Olson vs. Mets: 15 home runs, 43 RBIs across his career; this is one of his most productive matchups
- Pete Alonso (2025): 18 home runs, 64 RBIs. Alonso still has power numbers, even though he doesn’t get a lot of help behind him in the order
Our Best Bets
Time for our best bets! For this one, look below for the three that we think offer the best value.
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Braves Moneyline | Holmes has the better recent form, and Atlanta’s had the advantage in this matchup. | Medium–High |
Under 8.5 total runs | Both starters keep games in check, and the Mets’ offense hasn’t done much of anything. | Medium |
Matt Olson 2+ bases or run | He’s been really productive vs. New York all season and still looks like he’s on point. | Medium |
Before Game: Last-Minute Notes
Don’t forget to monitor the following things if you are betting!
- Double-check the lineups and any bullpen updates before the first pitch is thrown.
- Watch for any late roster moves or changes to the batting order.
- Keep an eye on live weather updates just in case anything changes; the weather has been crazy lately.
Our Final Takeaway
The series score is now 2-1 with Atlanta in the lead. Going into Game 4, unless the Mets have a repeat of Game 3? We think the Braves are in a good spot to win it again. But NY has home field advantage, and it worked out pretty well for them on Wednesday night.
Canning’s last outing against Atlanta didn’t go well, and he hasn’t looked much better since then. If Atlanta puts runners on early, they’ve got the lineup to bring them in.
- Braves moneyline
- Under 8.5 total runs
- Matt Olson 2+ bases or to score a run
- Mets Front Office: If the bullpen gives up another late lead this week, expect a trade before July 1; names like Brooks Raley or a DFA candidate could be on the block.
- Braves Roster: If Sean Murphy keeps raking and Verdugo stays in a slump, don’t be shocked if they rotate DH spots or explore outfield depth at the deadline.
- Upcoming Matchups: The Mets head to Miami, where they’re 1–5 this year. If they drop another series there? They’re officially sellers.
- Injury Watch: Keep tabs on Atlanta’s bullpen workload; Joe Jiménez has been used 4 times in 6 days.
Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves 5 – New York Mets 3
We think that the Braves will build an early lead with extra-base hits off Canning and add ons with RBI singles in the middle innings. The Mets will get runners on but leave them there, and bullpen lapses put it out of reach.
