Blue Jays vs. Yankees ALDS Game 3 Prediction & Top Bets (October 7, 2025)
The Toronto Blue Jays are one game away from taking the New York Yankees out of the ALCS. It’ll be a sweep if they win on Oct. 7; the Jays are up 2-0 going into Game 3.
Not only are they ahead, but they’ve spanked the Yanks 10-1 and 13-7 in Games 1 and 2, respectively.
New York has home-field advantage, and that might put work in their favor to stop the sweep from happening, but Toronto has looked unstoppable so far and has what it takes to win on the road.
Because if the Yankees don’t stop them on Tuesday night? They’re out!
What’s the word with oddsmakers and the market? We’ll get into it all with game details, a matchup overview, current betting odds and lines, angles, insights, and what we feel are the three best bets for Game 3 of the Yankees vs. Blue Jays series!
Game Details
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) @ New York Yankees (94-68)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, October 7, at 8:08 pm ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- How to Watch: FOX and FS1 (U.S.) or Sportsnet (Canada); streaming on FOXSports.com, FOX Sports App, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, Sling TV, DIRECTV STREAM, or Sportsnet+ (Canada)
Matchup Overview
Season & Form
- Regular-season summary: Both the Yankees and the Jays are 94–68 in the regular season.
- Head-to-head / season series: Toronto has an 8–5 advantage over New York in their 2025 games.
- Home vs. road splits: The Yankees were strong at home, and Toronto’s road numbers were a little more modest.
- Recent form heading into playoffs: New York ended strong, but Toronto’s performance was less up and down.
- Injuries & roster changes: The Blue Jays omitted Bo Bichette from their ALDS roster. Toronto also trimmed its depth arms; bullpen fatigue and usage patterns will be really important to monitor!
Starting Pitchers
Who’s starting on the hill for the Jays and the Yanks? Here’s a breakdown of both pitchers:
Shane Bieber (TOR)
- Season stats: 3.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 37 K-7 BB as a starter in 2025.
- Splits vs left/right batters: When he throws against lefties, Bieber’s allowed more extra bases and a higher SLG than vs righties.
- Road splits: His road numbers are close to his home splits, and there has not been a dramatic drop in performance; on the road vs lefties, he has allowed 1 hit, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts.
- Postseason/pressure history: Bieber has prior playoff experience, and in his return to Toronto (post-injury trade), he had a performance where he allowed only two hits in six innings in his debut after recovery.
Carlos Rodón (NYY)
- Rodón’s sample is limited in this series (0–0, 4.50 ERA in his first ALDS appearance) based on his Game 1 / Game 2 performance.
- Recent starts/velocity/spin/injury history: In the regular 2025 season, he posted an 18–9 record with a 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, totaling 203 strikeouts. His data shows a 4-seam fastball. averaged ~94.1 mph with good spin and a curve and sinker mix. He’s had some previous arm and back issues, and New York flagged lingering back field concerns.
- Platoon splits / matchup vs Toronto: As a lefty, Rodón will have a natural advantage vs some righty bats in Toronto’s order, but Toronto also fields lefty hitters who can test his arm-side offerings (aka his slider and sinker.
Who Has the Edge?
Between Bieber’s control and Rodón’s power, the balance favors the pitcher who has better command and reliability under postseason pressure. Bieber’s precision gives him an advantage, and Rodón’s higher-octane throws have more volatility due to his workload and previous injuries.
Bullpens & In-Game Management
The first two were high-scoring games, so let’s take a look at bullpen management and lineup strategy for Game 3!
- The Blue Jays bullpen has Jeff Hoffman (closer), Brendon Little, Yariel Rodríguez, and Seranthony Domínguez.
- The Yankees bullpen has David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Fernando Cruz, Mark Leiter Jr., and Luke Weaver.
- In terms of rest, both teams have to manage usage very carefully after Games 1 and 2, because any overuse now will decrease flexibility later on in the series if it goes past Game 3.
- New York’s bullpen gave up runs in Game 1, and several relievers allowed inherited runners to score.
- In Game 2, Toronto’s bullpen allowed runs, but the damage was limited by a big early lead.
- Because Toronto has had the lead in both games, they have used less high-leverage arms in earlier innings, which preserves fresh arms for later.
- Yankees manager Aaron Boone has been willing to match lefty/righty arms and pull a starter in early innings if it’s not looking great.
- Toronto’s manager, John Schneider, usually staggers relievers to avoid overextending arms in early innings; he saves stronger arms for later innings.
- Toronto relies on Hoffman and Domínguez in high-leverage 7th–9th innings.
- New York uses Bednar, Doval, and their righty bridge arms in the pen.
- If the Yankees’ bullpen flops vs left-handed hitters, Toronto can exploit it with Varsho and Guerrero Jr.
- If Toronto’s bullpen gives up too many walks or misreads matchups, they are in danger of sustaining late damage against power hitters.
Lineups & Hitting Matchups
- Toronto offense: The Jays have power (Guerrero Jr., Varsho), depth, and hitters who can take a walk. In their last 10 games vs left-handed pitchers, Toronto is hitting ~.254 with an OPS ~.773, and this depth means they can mix in different hitters late to counter relievers.
- New York offense: The Yankees’ main power threats are Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger. Against Bieber, they’ll probably try to nail his fastball or locate breaking pitches out of the zone. If Bieber misses over the plate? These three hitters can hit his pitches.
- Bench & pinch-hitting: Toronto’s bench has a lot more flexibility with left-right options to exploit platoon weaknesses. The Yankees appear to have fewer optimal choices when adapting midgame.
- Platoon splits: If a reliever forces Toronto to change, the Jays have more than enough depth to counter. A matchup to watch is Guerrero Jr. vs Rodón; if Rodón can’t neutralize him, Toronto’s offense will be able to break through. And Toronto’s lefties against Yankee bullpen arms like Doval and Bednar could force switches or gaffes.
Betting Market & Odds
Feel like betting on this one? Make sure to check the latest odds and lines! Here’s what’s posted on DraftKings:
| Bet Type | Blue Jays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +128 | -156 |
Run Line | +1.5 (-169) | -1.5 (+138) |
Total | Over 7.5 (-116) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Implied Probabilities
- The Yankees at −156 imply about a 60.9% chance.
- The Blue Jays at +128 imply about a 43.8% chance.
Line Movement / Opening vs Current
- Early drafts from DraftKings had the Yankees around −139 and the Blue Jays at +114. The move toward −156 for New York says that money has been pushing their side since then.
Edge / Model Check
- If your power model pegs the Yankees at closer to −130 or the Jays at +130, the current market is pricing a little extra premium on New York, so it might be a spot to compare yours vs theirs.
Juice / Vig
- The implied hold (vig) on the moneyline is around 4-5%, and that’s pretty standard. The spread and total are both typical margins, so there’s nothing extreme here.
Market Sentiment
- DraftKings Sportsbook shows that money has been moving toward the Yankees since opening, and external tracking shows that around 55% of the handle is landing on New York’s side; both recreational and sharper bettors are backing New York in Game 3.
Alternate Lines / Props
If you aren’t feeling the ML or spread, DraftKings usually has bets for the First 5 Innings, team totals, and player props, but they aren’t live yet; check closer to first pitch!
Angles & Betting Insights
Toronto has a 2–0 lead, so the tactical part in Game 3 will depend on bullpen stamina, how John Schneider manages his lineup against a left-handed starter, and if New York can extend its season by landing an early offense!
- “Close is good enough” for Toronto: Taking +1.5 on the run line makes sense with the way Toronto has played. They’ve already clocked New York’s pitching twice, and keeping it within one run at Yankee Stadium is realistic given how their bullpen has held onto late leads.
- Desperation factor for New York: Teams facing elimination will usually expand the zone and swing earlier in counts. If that pattern holds, it plays into Shane Bieber’s strength, and that’s getting weak contact on breaking pitches and finishing hitters once ahead.
- Platoon management: Carlos Rodón’s start means Toronto will prioritize right-handed players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, and Schneider can rotate lefties like Daulton Varsho depending on how Rodón’s slider looks. If Boone turns to right-hand relief by the sixth? Toronto can re-insert left-hand bats to attack the back end.
- Bullpen fatigue & matchups: New York’s relief staff threw more innings in Games 1 and 2 than Toronto’s; they used seven pitchers in under 12 frames. The Blue Jays were protected by early offense in Game 2, so they still have their main relievers rested; Hoffman and Domínguez are both available for multiple outs.
- Late-inning leverage: Toronto’s back end has been better under pressure, and New York has rotated through several right-handers with mixed results. If the game reaches the seventh inning and it’s tied or close, Schneider has the better bullpen.
- Exposure zones: If Boone uses his left-on-left matchups for too long, Varsho and Clement could get favorable counts. If Toronto is forced to use lower-leverage arms, Judge and Stanton will be immediate threats.
- Total/scoring volatility: Yankee Stadium is homer-friendly; it ranks in the top five in park factor for right-hand power. Any fastball command lapse early can inflate run totals before managers go to their best arms.
- Postseason history: In best-of-five series, teams up 2–0 advance around 89 percent of the time, and that shows just how thin New York’s margin is.
- Sample-size caution: Rodón’s single outing in this series (4.50 ERA) doesn’t tell us much, and Toronto’s two-game power burst could normalize.
- Game flow scenarios: If the Yankees score early, Toronto’s bullpen could come in by the fifth to steady traffic. If Bieber controls the zone through the middle innings, Toronto can turn it into another low-margin game that favors their rested relief group.
- Weather/park factor: Forecasts are calling for cool conditions with a light breeze out to right-center, and that can extend carry on fly balls from left-hand hitters. That’s a boost for both Varsho and Bellinger.
Our Best Bets
Okay, now it’s time to get into our best bets! We have three angles you can target, and they are as follows:
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Blue Jays +1.5 (–169) | The run line gives protection in a game that profiles as being close. Toronto’s hitters have handled New York’s staff well during the first two games, and John Schneider’s bullpen management has limited damage in the later innings. A one-run margin covers this price. | Medium-High |
Over 7.5 (−116) | Yankee Stadium is one of the league’s most favorable parks for home runs, and both offenses have gotten hard contact in this series. With Rodón’s tendency to elevate four-seamers and Bieber using sliders in hitter’s counts, scoring potential extends from the middle innings onward. | Medium |
(Alternate) 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 | The top halves of both lineups have strong data the first time through opposing pitchers. Bieber’s slider and Rodón’s fastball can both leak when they’re behind in counts, and that gives each side a chance to post runs before rotations happen. | Low-Medium |
Our top pick out of our three best bets? That would be the Blue Jays +1.5 (–169)!
Odds for Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 3 are moving—New York opened at –139 and shifted to –156, showing strong market backing. Track these line changes with our sports betting sites to secure the best value before first pitch.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
What could go sideways for either team? Here are the biggest risk factors facing them both in Game 3:
Rodón vs. Toronto
If Carlos Rodón has command of his four-seam fastball up in the zone and keeps his slider breaking late to right-handed hitters, he can blunt Toronto’s core of Guerrero Jr., Springer, and Clement. His strikeout rate spikes when those two pitches are synced, and he’s had a lot of success neutralizing right-hand power in similar spots this season.
Yankee Bullpen Response
New York’s bullpen logged heavy work across the first two games, but Aaron Boone finally has a rested setup. If Bednar, Doval, and Weaver hit their spots and limit base traffic, Toronto’s window to score late goes way down.
Elimination-Game Urgency
Because their season is on the line, the Yankees will most likely attack in hitter’s counts instead of waiting deep. That approach could exploit Bieber if he misses the edges, since New York’s middle order smacks fastballs that are left thigh-high.
Unpredictable Factors
A short weather delay, a bullpen arm tightening up, or an unexpected pinch-hit move could change when relievers are called in. One forced pitching switch mid-inning? That could disrupt both managers’ matchup plans.
Regression vs. Rebound
Toronto’s offense absolutely crushed fastballs in the first two games, but that surge usually drops off. The Yankees have Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger, and the underlying exit-velocity data shows they could come through for New York in Game 3.
Pressure on the Favorite
Having a 2–0 series advantage comes with a lot of tension, and teams in that position close things out around 89 percent of the time, but that sense of finality can cause teams to get cocky and make rushed decisions, like ill-timed steals, throwing errors, or over-managing matchups. Toronto’s best route is to stick with its usual tempo and trust its structure.
Will Toronto Take It All? Here’s Our Call
Final Score Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Yankees 4
We hate to say it, Yankees fans, but it looks like it’s over for them this season. The Blue Jays are gonna sweep, and to add insult to injury, they’re gonna do it in the Bronx.
Toronto is just a win away from advancing, and although New York is the favorite in Game 3, we can’t see them rebounding here. The Jays are a triple there with their stacked lineup, bullpen depth, and they have the +1.5 line cushion.
But stranger things have happened, so we can’t totally count out NY; they have Rodón, some heavy hitters, and they’re desperate not to get knocked out. If they win, we’ll be surprised, but it’s def not out of the realm of possibility! elimination-game urgency for NY.
And if somehow, some way, the Yankees do make a comeback? Then we’ve got a Game 4 to look forward to!
Best Bets Recap
- Blue Jays +1.5 (–169): Medium-High Confidence (our top pick)
- Over 7.5 (–116): Medium Confidence
- 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5: Low-Medium Confidence
