Blue Jays vs. Mariners ALCS Game 3 Prediction (October 15, 2025)
After the Blue Jays beat the Yankees, we were rooting for them to take the next series (at least I was; Toronto’s manager, John Schneider, is from my town, and I’m friends with his mom), but if they don’t win this game? They’ll be down 0-3 and in a do-or-die sitch for Game 4.
The Jays are down 0-2 against the Seattle Mariners, and the ALCS Game 3 is on Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 8:08 pm ET at T-Mobile Park in Washington.
Seattle is in control of the best-of-seven series so far, and unless Toronto gets this win on the road? It’s really hard to see them coming back from a 3-game deficit. If the Mariners get 2 more wins, they will make their very first appearance at the World Series.
The lines are favoring Seattle, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t any value left for the Blue Jays. We’ll get into all of that below, and we’ll also cover how the series has gone so far, current betting odds, matchup overview, team strengths and weaknesses, and our choices for the three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 15, at 8:08 p.m. ET (5:08 p.m. PT)
- Venue: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington
- How to Watch: Fox Sports 1; streaming the Fox Sports app, Hulu Live TV, YouTube TV, Sling, and Fubo
Series Context & Momentum
What happened in Games 1 & 2? Here’s a recap:
- Game 1: Seattle came from behind in Toronto; Cal Raleigh homered to tie it, and Jorge Polanco delivered an RBI single in the 8th that put the Mariners in the lead.
- Game 2: Seattle exploded for 10 runs. Polanco’s three-run homer in the 5th turned the game, and it was joined by multi-run shots from Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor. The Mariners’ bullpen gave up no damage after that.
Momentum & Psychological Factors
- Seattle is in control of the series; they’re ahead 2–0 and have been since the last half of Game 1 and all of Game 2.
- Toronto goes west under a lot of strain. They’ve stranded runners and fallen behind early in both games, which puts more mental pressure on them, that’s only compounded on the road.
- MLB postseason data shows that teams that are trailing 0–2 in a best-of-seven series have advanced less than 15% of the time, so history isn’t on Toronto’s side.
Home/Away Splits
- Seattle finished the regular season 51–30 at T-Mobile Park, and that’s one of the strongest home marks in the league; its starters have a sub-3.00 ERA there in the regular MLB season.
- Toronto, which is now forced to manufacture offense away from Rogers Centre, is up against a building that’s known for suppressing power and boosting crowd noise.
Betting Odds & Trends
Ready to make your bets? We’ve got the latest odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Blue Jays | +1.5 (-199) | +113 | Over 7 (-112) |
Mariners | -1.5 (+162) | -137 | Under 7 (-108) |
Line Movement & Implied Probabilities
- Early boards opened with Seattle around –143 and Toronto +118. The current move toward –137 / +112 shows there’s a mild push on the Jays relative to open.
- Mariners –137 suggests there’s around a 57.8% implied win probability; Blue Jays +113 suggests about 46.9%.
Situational/Historical Trends
- Teams that win the first two games in a best-of-seven go on to win 77 of 92 series.
- Kirby’s career vs Toronto: 3 appearances, 14.1 innings, 25 hits, 10 earned runs, ERA 6.28.
Game 3 Matchup Overview
Look below for a look at the starting pitchers, lineup, and what to watch for!
Starting Pitchers
Here’s who the Mariners and the Jays are sending out to the hill:
Seattle: George Kirby
- 2025 regular season: 10–8, 4.21 ERA, 137 K, 1.19 WHIP
- Advanced metrics: Kirby’s average exit velocity is ~90.6 mph, and his hard-hit rate is ~43.9%
- Recent stretch: In his last 5 outings, he is 2–1 with a 2.30 ERA and 45 strikeouts
- Injury history: Kirby started the season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, but returned fully healthy for the stretch run.
- Strengths: He has a high strikeout upside, precise command, and an ability to limit runs even when hitters do make contact.
- Weaknesses: The middle innings can expose him to elevated contact quality, and he’s occasionally vulnerable to home runs when fastballs catch too much plate.
Toronto: Shane Bieber
- Bieber is the Game 3 starter, but he’s coming off elbow surgery earlier this year, and while his breaking stuff has regained its late break, his fastball is closer to 91–92 mph instead of pre-injury 94. That drop makes command critical against a lineup that swings up in the zone.
- Strengths: Bieber’s sick curveball and slider sequencing can keep right-handed hitters guessing, and he has the ability to steal early-count strikes when he’s ahead in the count.
- Risks: When he misses arm-side, his fastball flattens out, and Seattle’s middle order, guys like Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández, can turn those into extra-base hits. If he has a hard time spotting the curve early, Toronto’s bullpen might need to cover innings by the fifth.
Lineups & Matchups to Watch
And here’s who and what we’ll have our eyes glued to:
Seattle’s Big Hitters
- Jorge Polanco: He’s produced go-ahead hits in both Games 1 and 2, including a three-run homer that broke the game open.
- Julio Rodríguez: His three-run shot in Game 2 gave Seattle early separation; pitchers who miss arm-side pay for it.
- Josh Naylor: He drove a two-run homer in Game 2 and is always a threat when runners are aboard.
- Cal Raleigh, Mitch Garver, JP Crawford: These three are the depth bats that grind counts and extend innings against right-handed pitchers.
Toronto’s Weapons
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: He’s 2-for-9 lifetime vs Kirby; Toronto needs him to square something early to shift the pressure.
- George Springer & Alejandro Kirk: Both can hit fastballs inside the zone and can work counts deep enough to get to Seattle’s bullpen.
- Supporting Hitters & Speed: Toronto may turn to small-ball tactics, like stolen-base attempts or hit-and-runs, to mess with Kirby’s rhythm.
Matchup Edges/Platoon Splits
- Kirby vs Toronto: Across three starts, Kirby has a 6.28 ERA vs the Blue Jays; he’s given up 25 hits and 10 earned in 14 innings.
- Bieber vs Seattle: Bieber has a 2.30 ERA with 49 strikeouts in seven career games against the Mariners.
- Bieber’s splits: Right-handed hitters have tagged him for a .297 average and .936 OPS this year, and lefties are batting .156 with a .434 OPS.
Strengths/Weaknesses & Key Edges
Seattle has controlled the series behind with pitching layers, opportunistic offense, and now has the home-field advantage. Toronto still has a vet arm and a power core that’s capable of hurting that edge, but its bullpen depth is a big concern going into Game 3.
| Team | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|---|
Seattle |
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Toronto |
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X-Factors & Wildcards
- The first three innings will dictate bullpen sequencing; an early lead could change both managers’ decisions.
- If Seattle scores early? Toronto will need to push runners and play for contact, which raises execution pressure.
- Defensive lapses or aggressive base running could determine one or two important outs.
- Umpire zone width and air density in T-Mobile Park will affect off-speed movement and fly-ball travel.
- Fatigue from heavy bullpen use in Games 1–2 could also influence late-inning command quality.
Our Best Bets
What are we looking at in terms of best bets for Game 3? The following angles:
Best Bet #1: Mariners -1.5 (Confidence 3.5/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Seattle’s home record in 2025 was good; Kirby’s performance is way better at T-Mobile than when he’s on the road.
- Toronto’s bullpen allowed inherited runners and runs in earlier games, and that shows possible late-inning vulnerability.
- Bieber’s shorter recent outings cut down on his margin for error, and that makes +162 more attractive if Seattle wins by two runs.
Betting Angle
A +162 price gives bettors more room for a multi-run Seattle win instead of risking a single-run result!
Verdict
If Seattle attacks in the early innings and forces Toronto’s pen into action by the middle innings, this line is defensible. A 4–2 or 5–3 result is definitely in play here.
Best Bet #2: Over 7 (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Shane Bieber’s recent pitch limitations suggest that the bullpen will see heavier work.
- The total is low enough that one extended rally or a few good hits can push it past 7.
- T-Mobile Park suppresses offense; the park suppresses offense by about 11% compared to the average.
- Park factor data shows that T-Mobile Park has a batting factor below 1.000 in multiple splits, so it tends to favor pitchers over hitters.
- T-Mobile Park has hosted a run environment ~17% lower than the league average in recent years.
Betting Angle
A 4–3 or 5–3 final score gets us across this line.
Verdict
We think scoring will pick up once the matchups change and relief arms hit the field.
Best Bet #3: Mariners -137 (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- This angle limits exposure compared to the run line; that can be really risky in playoff games.
- Kirby’s command at home and his ability to stay in the zone give Seattle an advantage edge against Bieber, whose pitching has been here and there in this series.
- Seattle is 37–15 when scoring first and 28–11 when it’s ahead after five innings; these are both realistic scenarios with Kirby on the hill.
- Scott Servais uses quicker bullpen calls and matchup switches at home, and Toronto’s John Schneider is much more conservative in later innings.
- Public money has leaned toward Toronto in similar spots, and that improves pricing a little bit on the home side.
Betting Angle
The current line is below what metrics suggest it should be (closer to –150). With Seattle’s bullpen reliability and home metrics, the straight moneyline is the most controlled way to back them.
Verdict
This works as a mainline pick for single plays or smaller parlays! Why? Because the Mariners’ performance at home and pitching advantage make them the logical side to take.
Line movement for Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 3 is heating up—Seattle opened at -143 and shifted to -137, while total action is hitting the Over 7. Track the latest odds and lock in value using our recommended best sportsbooks.
Will Seattle Be One Win Away from the World Series?
Final Score Prediction: Mariners 5, Blue Jays 3
As much as we want to see the Blue Jays make a comeback and beat the Mariners, it doesn’t look like it’s in the cards.
Maybe we’re wrong; if they’ll win this game and the next? We’ll eat our words. But we have to go with the facts, and the facts are that Seattle is playing better baseball and they’ve got home-field advantage. The Mariners fans are fired up for their team, and that will only help the club get another win to make it 3-0.
Best Bets Recap
- Mariners –1.5 (+162): Confidence 3.5/5
- Over 7 (–112): Confidence 3.0/5
- Mariners –137: Confidence 3.0/5
