Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Picks & Prediction (November 20, 2025)

The Buffalo Bills will be near-touchdown favorites (-6) when they take on the Texans in Houston for a tense week 12 Thursday Night Football battle.

Short-week contests tend to favor the home team, but with quarterback C.J. Stroud ruled out once again due to concussion symptoms, the Texans will not be expected to win this game.

Both teams badly need to win for different reasons, as the Bills need to keep pace with the Patriots in the top-heavy AFC East and Houston is on life support as they try to sneak into the AFC playoffs.

Buffalo will be sizable -290 favorites and thanks to the short week and Houston’s defense, bettors have a suspect 43.5 game total to work with.

So, what’s the best bet for Thursday Night Football? I’ll highlight my favorite TNF picks and point you to a Bills vs. Texans prediction.

Game Info Snapshot

• Matchup: Buffalo Bills (7-3) vs. Houston Texans (5-5)
• Date & Time: Thursday, November 20th, 2025 | Kickoff at 8:15 pm ET
• Venue: NRG Stadium in Houston, TX
• How to Watch: Amazon Prime

The Bills are favored by almost a touchdown despite being on the road on a short week. That tells us all we need to know about how these teams are seen in the eyes of oddsmakers.

The total is perhaps the trickiest part of the Bills vs. Texans odds, as Buffalo’s offense has upside, but they’ll be on a short week against the best defense in football.

Storylines to Watch

There are a lot of Bills vs. Texans storylines to monitor, but the biggest is simply how Josh Allen will fare against the league’s top scoring defense.

Allen basically is Buffalo’s offense and he’s fresh off a game where he accounted for an insane six touchdowns. If he can’t elevate his game in the face of a brutal road test, Buffalo could struggle to generate points.

Here are a few more Texans vs. Bills storylines for Thursday Night Football:

• Backup Plan: Texans star passer C.J. Stroud is out for the third straight game, so it will be the Davis Mills Show under center. How he fares could dictate whether or not Houston has a real shot at pulling off the upset.
• Consistency: Both of these teams have struggled to put together extended winning streaks. Buffalo got off to a 4-0 start, but has gone just 3-3 since. Houston opened the year 0-3 and turned things around, but are just 3-2 over their last five games.
• Count on Me: One of the bigger storylines for Buffalo was the benching of wide receiver Keon Coleman. It’s unclear if he’ll even be active on TNF, but the Bills can probably use his large frame and explosive playmaking.

Team Profiles

Here’s where the Texans have stood out the most this season:

• Smother Crew: Houston not only has the top NFL defense (16.3 points allowed per game), but they are super stingy across the board, ranking #1 in yards allowed per game.
• Pass Happy: For whatever reasons, the Texans pass at an absurd 59.9% rate. They haven’t been particularly good at it, however, while their pass protection (13th worst sack rate) has been poor.
• Protect the Ball: The good news is the offense has found a way to largely take care of the football, which aids their elite defense. Houston enters TNF with just 0.9 giveaways (8th best) per game.

Here’s a look at how the Bills have excelled in key areas in 2025:

• Fireworks: The running theme with the Bills has always been their big play potential. And against a stingy Houston defense, Buffalo’s yards per play (2nd best in the NFL) may be a huge factor in flipping the field in their favor.
• Ground Control: Josh Allen is a force on the move and is quite the extension of an elite Bills rushing attack that ranks top-5 in every key metric.
• Sack Attack: Joey Bosa anchors an elite defensive line that ranks 5th in sack rate (8.72%).

Key Matchups & Angles

Take a look at the key Texans vs. Bills matchups for TNF:

• Buffalo’s pass rush vs. Houston’s o-line: This is probably the biggest key to this game considering the Texans throw so much. Their pass protection is far from elite, while the Bills can wreck opposing passing games.
• Woody Marks vs. Buffalo’s run defense: If the Texans are smart, they will feed their talented rookie RB. Buffalo’s run defense (31st) is without a doubt their defense’s Achilles heel.
• Bills ground game vs. Houston’s run defense: The Bills are pretty balanced, but they tend to dominate on the ground. If the Texans (3rd vs. the run) can manage to slow their rushing attack down, they should be able to hang in this game.

Betting Trends & Odds Context

Check out the latest Texans vs. Bills odds, per DraftKings:

• Spread: Bills -6 (-108) | Texans +6 (-112)
• Moneyline: Bills (-290) | Texans (+235)
• Total: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)

Take a look at some key betting trends for this TNF tilt:

• Public Betting: Everyone is very much on the Bills, as they currently are getting 94% of the bets with 92% of the money backing them.
• Matchup History: The Bills and Texans have only played each other 12 times. Houston holds a 7-5 series lead, and won the most recent meeting (23-20) last year.
• ATS Data: Houston is 4-6 ATS on the year and has gone 3-2 ATS as the home team and 0-3 against the spread as the underdog. Buffalo is 5-5 ATS overall, 3-5 ATS when favored, and 2-2 against the spread on the road.

Best Bets for Texans vs. Bills

Final Verdict: Bills Start to Heat Up, Down Texans

This is the exact type of setting Buffalo has struggled with: a road test with a team capable of stepping up defensively. Of course, Houston is more than capable, as they seem to flex their defensive muscle on a weekly basis.

Shutting down the Bills completely is a tall order, of course, while winning a third straight game with Davis Mills as your starting quarterback feels like a reach.

It’s probably too much to ask to call for the Texans upset, but they’ll slow the Bills down enough to beat this spread and keep the game total in check.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 20, Houston Texans 16