Best NFL Offenses to Bet the Over On in 2025
There are very few things that send NFL fans and bettors into a frenzy than a high-scoring football game! When certain squads run out onto the field, touchdowns keep coming, and the points total? Well, that can go way higher than the line that was set by sportsbooks. How does it happen? The offenses are so insane and unpredictable that even the elite experts have a heck of a time setting the totals high enough to contain them.
Why are we telling you this? Because it’s pigskin season, and we want to talk about those NFL teams that are the most likely to put a lot of points on the scoreboard in 2025. And that means they are the absolute best ones for betting the Over.
We’ll go over why these teams are in ‘over’ gold territory, examine their star quarterbacks, playmakers, coaching styles, and recent scoring trends. When you get what makes these offenses tick? Then you can make the most informed bets on games that will possibly exceed the projected total points!
If you don’t know what “Betting the Over” means, it’s when you expect the total combined points scored by both teams in a game to be higher than the sportsbook’s projected number. If a game’s over-under is 50 and you take the Over, you’re betting that 51 or more points will be scored.
We’ll also look at the main ingredients of a high-scoring offense, like elite quarterback play to aggressive coaching. Then we’ll get into the specific teams that are on the way to delivering points in 2025. The most likely suspects are the Chiefs, Bengals, Lions, Cowboys, and Dolphins. And we’ll show the important metrics (like points per game and yards per play), situational angles, and give you best-bet examples!
Have a seat in your fav recliner; it’s time to find out which football teams could turn 2025 into an offensive exposé.
Why Certain NFL Offenses Are ‘Over’ Gold
What makes a team more likely to hit the Over consistently? It all comes down to a blend of talent, philosophy, and, of course, game circumstances. Below are the main factors that turn into high total scores.
Great quarterbacks are the engine of overs. Efficient passers who can stretch the field and finish drives lead to more points. Think of QBs who excel at deep-ball success and convert in the red zone. When a top-tier quarterback is at the helm (especially one with MVP-caliber talent), their team’s offense can score in bunches almost every week.
Dynamic playmakers at the skill positions, like wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs, can turn any touch into a big gain or touchdown. A receiving corps with a couple of game-breaking wideouts or a versatile running back adds “quick-strike” ability. Defenses have to pick their poison, and that often results in blown coverages and long TDs. Offenses featuring multiple Pro Bowl-caliber weapons tend to produce higher scores.
Coaching philosophy plays a huge role. Some coaches are content to grind the clock, but others relentlessly push the pace. An up-tempo offense means more plays per game (and more scoring opportunities). Likewise, a coach who is bold on fourth downs and prioritizes touchdowns over field goals will maximize points. For example, Detroit’s Dan Campbell has kept his offense on the field on 4th down a league-high 151 times over the last four seasons. In 2024 alone, the Lions went for it 33 times on fourth down (converting 22), extending drives that often resulted in extra points.
It sounds a little counterintuitive, but a so-so defense can make an offense even more attractive for Over bets. Why? If your defense gives up points easily, your offense will need to stay aggressive and keep scoring, leading to shootouts. Alternatively, some teams have decent defenses that play aggressively (forcing turnovers or quick scores allowed), which can still result in high total points. A team that wins 38-35 is just as good for an Over bettor as one that loses 38-35. The sweet spot for overs is often an explosive offense paired with a mediocre or leaky defense.
Okay! So when you are evaluating an offense’s Over potential, pay close attention to a few important metrics. Points per game (PPG) tells you how many points a team typically scores (the higher, the better for overs). Yards per play (YPP) measures efficiency; teams over 6 yards/play are moving the ball easily, and that shows that they can rack up points quickly. Pace of play (plays per game or seconds per play) shows how fast they operate; a fast pace can yield more total plays and points. And consider red-zone efficiency (how often they convert drives into touchdowns) and big play rate (frequency of 20+ yard plays). High numbers in these categories are go-go green lights for Over bettors!
Top NFL Offenses to Bet the Over On in 2025
There are five NFL teams that we (and a lot of other experts) feel are the best candidates for high-scoring games this coming season. We’ve identified the offenses that are a combo of top-tier talent with the right system and situation to consistently threaten the Over. Next up, we go over each team and why they’re so potent, how they performed last season, and what angles a bettor can exploit. If you’re searching for shootouts in 2025? Watch this space!
Kansas City Chiefs
Any and all conversations about explosive offenses have to start with the Chiefs. Helmed by the superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City has been synonymous with immaculate offense in the last few years. Mahomes’ ability to improvise and throw deep balls from all angles keeps defenses on their tippy toes. Even though the Chiefs’ offense took a step back in 2024 (averaging 22.7 points per game, which is below their usual output), they are expected to rebound in 2025. One reason for this is an improved receiving corps: the young wideouts got more experience last year, and the team added some new talent to bolster Mahomes’ weapons.
The Chiefs’ passing attack is expected to be “much better in 2025 than it was in 2024,” when injuries to their wide receivers early last season limited their explosiveness. A healthier group of receivers, alongside All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, should give the all-clear for Mahomes to return to MVP-level numbers.
- Coaching tendencies: Head coach Andy Reid has always been known for his innovative and aggressive play-calling. Kansas City is not a team that sits on a lead; Reid will dial up deep shots or creative trick plays even when they’re ahead. The Chiefs were also more willing to run the ball in 2024 to adjust to defensive looks, but don’t expect a conservative approach going forward. With Mahomes under center, this team’s default mode is attack. Reid’s offense routinely ranks among the NFL leaders in passing attempts and running plays, and that translates to lots of chances to score.
- 2024 recap & betting angle: Despite a comparatively modest scoring year, the Chiefs still went 15-2 and won the Super Bowl; they did “just enough” to win games. Most of their games fell Under because oddsmakers set really high totals, and the Chiefs’ offense didn’t always hit its old gear. They finished 2024 with a 9-11 over/under record (including playoffs), meaning Under bettors cashed slightly more often. This could create value in 2025; if early-season totals for Kansas City are a little lower due to last year’s stats, betting the Over could be profitable when Mahomes and Co. find their groove again. Keep a lookout on this month’s games in particular, because it’s when offenses have the advantage before defenses adjust. The Chiefs have a track record of starting seasons on fire, and a Chiefs Over this month could be a really smart play.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are in possession of one of the NFL’s most potent young offenses. Quarterback Joe Burrow, who is now healthy and is in his prime, is coming off a phenomenal 2024 season. He led the league with 4,983 passing yards and 48 TD passes, finishing as a top MVP candidate. Burrow’s chemistry with his elite wide receiver trio (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd) makes Cincinnati’s passing attack incredibly difficult to stop.
Ja’Marr Chase got the receiving triple crown in 2024 (leading the NFL with 1,708 yards, 127 catches, and 17 TDs), and that shows how potent this offense can be. With all three star receivers secured on long-term deals and in sync, this unit can score from anywhere on the field. Defensive coordinators usually try everything and still watch Burrow eat them up.
- Offensive line improvements: A big difference for Cincinnati in recent years has been investing in the offensive line to protect Burrow. The Bengals brought in left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and others to solidify protection. The result in 2024 was an offense that led the NFL in passing yards per game (272.9) and gave Burrow the time to push the ball downfield. More time in the pocket means more opportunities for Chase and Higgins to get open deep. The Bengals averaged 5.8 yards per play, showing both efficiency and explosiveness. When Burrow has a clean pocket, this offense is nearly unstoppable.
- Aggressive mindset and trends: Head coach Zac Taylor leans into the team’s strengths by keeping the ball in Burrow’s hands. Cincinnati does not play scared in a pass-heavy game plan; in 2024, an incredible 74.7% of their total yards came via the pass (highest in the NFL). This aggressive aerial approach naturally lends itself to higher totals. Equally important, the Bengals’ defense struggled last year, ranking 25th in points allowed. That combo, a powerhouse offense and a wobbly defense, was a boon for Over bettors. Eleven of the Bengals’ 17 games in 2024 went Over the total, which is one of the best Over records in the league. A lot of Cincinnati games turned into shootouts where Burrow had to keep scoring because the defense couldn’t finish it off.
- Betting angle: As long as Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are on the field, the Bengals will be a threat to drop 30+ points on any opponent. Look for matchups against other high-powered offenses or against weak secondaries; those could turn into point races. And Bengals home games can produce big totals, as the team tends to play more uptempo at Paycor Stadium. The data backs this up: Cincinnati went 11-6 (64.7%) on overs in 2024, meaning that the bettors who consistently took Bengals overs came out ahead nicely. Going into 2025, the continuity of Burrow and his receivers (no contract drama or injuries this offseason) should only improve their timing. Expect the Bengals to stay one of the league’s premier Over teams, with Burrow’s bunch routinely forcing final scores into the 50s or higher.
Detroit Lions
Surprise! The highest-scoring team in the NFL last year wasn’t the Chiefs or Bills. Nope, it was the Detroit Lions. Detroit’s offense led the league at 33.2 points per game in 2024, a testament to their balance and efficiency. Quarterback Jared Goff has found new life in the Motor City, orchestrating an offense that can beat you in multiple ways. Goff was remarkably efficient in 2024, throwing for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns with a 111.8 passer rating, one of the best stat lines of his career. He’s distributing the ball with confidence and rarely turning it over. Goff’s top target, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, is a model of consistency. St. Brown hauled in 115 receptions for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs in 2024, proving to be a chain-mover and red-zone threat who can keep drives going (and Overs alive!).
What really makes the Lions so dangerous, though, is their offensive balance. They can burn you through the air or on the ground. In 2024, Detroit averaged about 277 passing yards and 146 rushing yards per game, one of the most balanced attacks in the league. In the backfield, Jahmyr Gibbs emerged as a star. The super speedy running back not only racked up 1,412 rushing yards with 16 rushing TDs (tied for the NFL lead) but also added 517 receiving yards and 4 TD catches. That’s 1,929 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns from Gibbs alone! His big-play ability forces defenses to stay honest; they can’t just sit back and defend the pass when Gibbs can house it on any carry or screen pass. The Lions also have a power element with running back David Montgomery pounding between the tackles. This versatility means that Detroit can adapt to any game script (shootout or dogfight), but given their talent? It usually turns into a shootout anyway.
- Coaching tendencies: Head coach Dan Campbell has completely changed the culture in Detroit, and part of that is his aggressive, no-fear play-calling. Campbell is famously aggressive on fourth downs, often eschewing field goals to keep the offense driving for touchdowns. As noted earlier, the Lions went for it 33 times on 4th down in 2024 (top-four in the NFL) and converted two-thirds of those tries. This aggressiveness “breeds confidence throughout the roster” and also directly leads to more points; those are drives that might have ended in three points (or zero) but instead produced seven. Campbell’s philosophy is basically an Over bettor’s dream: he rarely settles. The Lions also play fast in terms of pace, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is not afraid to dial up creative deep shots early and regularly.
- Betting trends and outlook: Detroit was a strong Over bet in 2024 thanks to their scoring prowess. They hit the Over in roughly 10 of their games (depending on the closing lines). Even when bookmakers adjusted and set higher totals on Lions games, Goff and the team usually exceeded expectations. And in home games at Ford Field (a climate-controlled dome), the Lions’ offense was unmatched. Dome conditions remove the weather variables, and for a precision offense like Detroit’s? That means points galore. Looking forward to this season, it’s reasonable to expect continued scoring eruptions. Goff is in his second year with the same offensive coordinator, the O-line is one of the league’s better units, and the young playmakers (St. Brown, Gibbs, rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, etc.) are only improving. One thing to monitor is Detroit’s defense; it was middle-of-the-pack last year, and if it doesn’t make a big jump, we’ll continue to see some 34-30 type games. A number of Lions games in 2024 turned into high-scoring affairs (they had multiple games where both teams scored 30+). If you like Overs, the Lions are a team to watch out for in 2025. Don’t be shocked if Detroit is again among the NFL leaders in scoring; their combo of talent and coaching makes them a consistent Over threat.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have long been known for a high-octane offense, and they have all of the right pieces to regain that form in 2025. Quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb form one of the league’s most productive duos when they’re in tandem. In 2023, Lamb put up a massive 1,749 receiving yards on 135 catches with 14 touchdowns, which showed off the ceiling of this passing attack. And although Dallas’s offense surprisingly underperformed in 2024 (scoring only 20.6 PPG, a really big drop from previous years), there are reasons to expect a rebound. For one, Prescott battled some inconsistency, but he’s just a year removed from leading a top-5 offense. If Dak cuts down on interceptions and gets back to his 2021–22 form, Dallas will be back to moving the chains and finishing drives.
Lamb is an absolute nightmare after the catch and should continue to be a focal point; plus, the supporting cast has been upgraded. Brandin Cooks, an offseason addition in 2024, began to build nice chemistry with Dak and provides a legit deep threat to complement Lamb. The running back unit also has a new look. With Ezekiel Elliott gone, Tony Pollard took over in 2024, and the Cowboys could introduce fresher players (maybe a drafted rookie or emerging backup) to amp up the ground game. A more dynamic run game can force defenses into pick-your-poison scenarios, opening up play-action shots downfield.
- Coaching and scheme: There has been a change in Dallas’s offensive coaching. Long-time offensive coordinator Kellen Moore (known for a pass-heavy approach) departed after the 2022 season, and head coach Mike McCarthy took over play-calling in 2023 with Brian Schottenheimer assisting. The 2024 results were here and there, but McCarthy has indicated a desire to push the tempo more and “let Dak play” this year. Don’t forget, McCarthy oversaw some explosive offenses in Green Bay, and he’s not inherently conservative. If anything, the disappointment of 2024’s offense may spur the Cowboys to be more aggressive and creative in 2025. Additionally, Dallas’s home stadium (AT&T Stadium) is a fast track (retractable roof often closed), and that tends to favor offense.
The Cowboys’ defense has been really strong (they’ve been top-5 in points allowed in recent seasons). On the surface, that sounds like an Under bettor’s BFF, but what we saw last year was interesting; Dallas had a lot of high-total games because their offense was either aggressive or their defense scored/allowed quick points. And in high-profile divisional games (like the Cowboys vs. Eagles), we usually get shootouts. The rivalry games in the NFC East can produce insane, high-scoring contests as both teams pull out all the stops. Dallas’s two matchups with Philadelphia in recent years have had combined scores of 65+ points on several occasions.
- Betting trends: Despite their relatively low scoring average in 2024, Cowboys games tended to go Over more often than not. In fact, Dallas hit the Over in 11 of 17 games (64.7%) in 2024, which is surprising. How did it happen? A combo of some offensive quick-strikes (when things clicked, Dallas had games of 40+ points) and a few uncharacteristic defensive lapses or garbage-time points pushed totals over. This tells us that bookmakers have over-adjusted Cowboys totals downward due to respect for their defense, but the games found ways to go over anyway. For 2025, if Prescott stays healthy and the offense finds its groove, Dallas could return to a 27-30 PPG caliber team. That, paired with their opportunistic defense (which scores touchdowns off turnovers), makes them good for Overs.
Keep tabs on matchups vs. other elite offenses, like the Cowboys vs. Eagles or vs. 49ers. Those could turn into back-and-forth games. And Dallas in prime-time games tends to unleash an aggressive approach (America’s Team under the lights usually equals fireworks). With a chip on their shoulder from last season, expect the Cowboys to come out trying to prove a point offensively. That could mean some early-season Overs before the lines catch up.
Miami Dolphins
Speed, speed, and more speed. The Miami Dolphins have maybe the most productive duo of receivers in the league: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. These two are basically blurs on the field and are capable of turning a 5-yard slant into a 75-yard touchdown in seconds.
Under head coach Mike McDaniel, Miami’s offense in 2023 showed how lethal it can be; they famously scored 70 points in a single game (Week 3 of 2023), something the NFL hadn’t seen in decades. When quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and on his game, this passing attack is incredibly efficient and aggressive. McDaniel’s scheme, rooted in the Shanahan tree, uses motion and misdirection to get his playmakers in space. In 2023, when it was working, Miami led the league in yards per play and looked to be unstoppable.
But in 2024, they hit a big bump in the road: Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2 and missed a month of action, during which the offense “cratered,” managing only 40 total points in the four games Tua missed. That mid-season slump dragged down their overall stats; Miami finished with just 20.3 PPG, well below expectations. The bright side is that it was largely due to quarterback injuries and a revolving door of backups.
When Tua returned, the offense perked back up, but Miami just missed the playoffs. Tagovailoa himself acknowledged that if he’d been on the field all year, things would likely have been very different.
- Mike McDaniel’s approach: Coach McDaniel has quickly gained a reputation as an offensive innovator. He’s a big fan of using pre-snap motion (the Dolphins use motion at one of the highest rates in the NFL) to confuse defenses and create mismatches. He also isn’t afraid to dial up deep shots early in games. Miami often comes out aggressive, knowing they can press an advantage with Hill’s and Waddle’s speed outside. The pace of play for Miami isn’t warp-speed, but because they gain such large chunks of yardage per play, they don’t need an excessive number of plays to hit Overs. It’s quality over quantity; a 3-play, 75-yard touchdown drive takes maybe a minute off the clock and puts points up quickly, leaving plenty of time for more scoring. McDaniel has also shown a tendency to go for the jugular. When the Dolphins smell blood (like in that 70-20 game), they keep pushing the tempo rather than sitting on a lead. For Over bettors, that is a very welcome mentality.
- Situational angles: Miami’s home field, Hard Rock Stadium, can be an interesting factor. Early in the season, the South Florida heat and humidity can tire out opposing defenses, leading to late-game scoring bursts by the Dolphins. And late in the season, the Dolphins travel to cold-weather venues (e.g., Buffalo, New York), which can slow down a speed-based team, so it’ll be important to pick spots. Still, certain matchups jump off the page for potential overs: whenever Miami faces another potent offense or a poor secondary, expect bombs.
In 2024, Miami’s defense was middle-tier, but they’ve invested in some improvements (like bringing in Jalen Ramsey last year, though he was hurt for a while). If the defense becomes too good, it could theoretically reduce shootouts. But given the Dolphins’ offensive identity, even a good defense might just lead to them playing faster after quick stops. They’re built to out-race teams, not win 17-14 slugfests. With a healthy Tua distributing to Hill (who still has game-breaking potential at age 31) and Waddle, and McDaniel’s creative play designs, the Dolphins have all the tools to be an Over bettor’s favorite in 2025. Just be sure to monitor Tua’s health; as we saw, his presence or absence is the difference between a top-5 offense and a bottom-10 one for Miami.
Honorable Mentions
Look, the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles all deserve a shout-out as high-scoring teams. The Bills, helmed by Josh Allen, scored 30.9 PPG in 2024 and can explode for big numbers, though sometimes cold Buffalo weather or Allen’s risk-taking introduces volatility.
The 49ers have an embarrassment of offensive weapons and an offensive genius in Kyle Shanahan; they can drop 30 on anyone when QB play is solid, but their strong defense occasionally keeps totals moderate. And the Eagles, with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith, are a big-play offense as well, and they averaged a strong showing of 27.2 PPG last year.
Any of these teams can turn a game into a shootout, but week-to-week, they might be a tad less consistent with overs compared to the five teams above. Still, don’t be scared to ride the Over on Bills, Niners, or Eagles games when the matchup and conditions look good!
Situational Angles for Betting the Over
Even with the best offense on the field, certain situations and external factors can and do influence if a game becomes a shootout or not. All experienced bettors consider the following angles before they go all in on the Over:
Matchup Factors (Defenses Matter Too)
Look at the styles of the teams involved. Some offenses do well until they face a particular type of defense. But generally, weak defenses or specific mismatches can create an Over bonanza. For example, if a top passing offense faces a secondary that’s riddled with injuries or just talent-poor, that offense might score every other possession. Similarly, two aggressive, offensive-minded coaches facing off can produce a fireworks show (like Andy Reid vs. Sean McDermott, etc.). Divisional games in some divisions have reliably high scores; divisional familiarity can cut both ways, but often teams know each other’s tendencies so well that offense has the advantage. So consider the styles: fast vs. fast = points, fast vs. slow = conflict of tempo (be cautious).
Weather and Venue
Weather is the sworn enemy of overs. Rain, snow, and heavy wind can all slow down even the best offense by making it harder to throw or kick. That’s why dome teams or teams in warm climates are safer bets for high-scoring games.
Games that are played in indoor stadiums like Ford Field in Detroit or AT&T Stadium in Dallas eliminate weather worries, allowing offenses to execute at full throttle. If two explosive offenses meet in perfect conditions (say, Los Angeles or Las Vegas with a dome), leaning Over is easier. On the flip side, if a high-powered team like Buffalo or Kansas City is playing in a December blizzard, you might pause before expecting a 35-31 shootout. Always check the forecast! A sunny day or a primetime game under a roof is conducive to points.
Prime-Time and Big Stage Games
Under the national spotlight of Monday Night Football, Sunday night, or Thursday night, teams often bring a little extra juice. Offenses could empty the playbook with trick plays or deep shots in these showcase games.
There’s a psychological factor: players know everyone is watching, and we see stars rise to the occasion, and that means more scoring.
Coaches can be more aggressive on a big stage, knowing a conservative game plan won’t cut it in a marquee matchup. While it’s not a guarantee (and indeed in 2022–2023 there was a trend of primetime Unders hitting), many bettors believe that prime-time games between good teams skew higher-scoring.
Injuries and Lineup News
Always check who’s in and who’s out. A star quarterback or key offensive weapon missing can derail an Over bet (as we saw with Tua and the Dolphins in 2024). Conversely, a star defensive player’s absence (say a shutdown corner or elite pass rusher) can tilt things toward the offense. If a top-10 defense is suddenly missing multiple starters in the secondary, an elite QB will likely shred them. Those late-week injury reports can provide a hidden edge; if you notice a game where both teams’ offenses are near full strength but defensive injuries are piling up, the Over becomes super attractive.
Risks & Things to Watch
Betting Overs can be fun (who doesn’t love rooting for points?), but it’s not without its downsides and risks! Here are some cautionary points you have to think about before you slam the Over:
Oddsmakers Adjust Quickly
The people in Vegas? They’re smart. So when a team consistently scores a ton or keeps hitting Overs, bookmakers will raise the total lines for their games. Elite offenses come with sky-high over/under numbers, which means the value can shrink.
Always ask: Has the value been sucked out of this number? Sometimes a matchup between two hyped offenses gets a total so high that the smarter play is actually the Under. Overs are fun, but not if you’re always paying a premium for them.
Injuries to Key Players
This is the biggest Over killer. You place a bet expecting big plays, and then the star quarterback rolls an ankle in the first quarter. Youch! Or a stud receiver is a surprise scratch with a hamstring injury. Offenses can drop off dramatically without their field general or playmakers. Keep a really close watch on injury news right up until kickoff. If a late injury hits a quarterback or a team’s #1 weapon, you might want to reconsider or hedge. Depth matters as well; some teams can weather an injury (next man up), but others fall apart. An Over bet made in advance can be derailed in a heartbeat if you’re not careful, so wait to bet closer to game time when statuses are clearer, or make sure that your bet can be cashed out if news goes south.
Mid-Season Defensive Improvements (or Weather Changes)
The NFL is a dynamic league. A team that was giving up 30 a game in September might fix its issues by November; maybe a new defensive coordinator, a scheme change, or a key player returning from injury. That same team might suddenly start playing in lower-scoring games. Be ready to adjust your perceptions; don’t blindly bet the Over on a team based on early-season trends if the conditions have changed. And as the season progresses into late fall and winter, the weather becomes a bigger factor. A team that was an Over machine in sunny September might hit a string of bad-weather games in December. If you’re not paying attention, you could lose bets due to Mother Nature or a team’s evolving identity.
Odd Game Scripts and Coaching Decisions
Sometimes, even with two great offenses, external factors can sabotage an Over. Turnovers in the red zone (drives that produce zero points), coaches suddenly turtling with a lead, or one team dominating time of possession can all hurt. There’s also the dreaded scenario where one explosive offense blows out the other, and then calls off the dogs. That’s why sometimes betting first-half overs can be a strategy with juggernaut teams (they’ll get their points early before possibly easing up). It’s almost impossible to predict these things, but be aware that not every dream matchup yields a shootout if it becomes one-sided.
Importance of Line Shopping
This is a practical, but probably the most important tip. Always shop around different sportsbooks for the best total line. You might see one book offer Over 49.5 and another offer Over 48.5 on the same game. That one point can be the difference between a win and a loss (there’s nothing worse than hitting 49 total points on a 49.5 Over; you lose by a half-point). By getting the best number, you increase your chances of winning. It’s not only about the Over, but the number you get.
Our advice? Check multiple sportsbooks and grab the most favorable total. Even better, if you expect a line to move, try to anticipate it, like betting an Over early in the week if you think public money will drive it up by Sunday. Or hold off if you think it might come down!
Our Best Bets Examples
Ok, now for some concrete betting angles that we have our peepers on for the upcoming season. Think of these as specific scenarios or matchups where betting the Over could be especially valuable! Again, these are just hypotheticals, so keep that in mind. Below is our “best bet” Overs, our confidence rating for each one (out of 5), and why we’d make that bet.
Chiefs Overs in September
- Confidence: 4/5
Kansas City usually comes out of the gates scoring at will. Early in the season, Andy Reid’s creative offenses have an edge before defenses catch up. In September games, with fair weather and all, KC’s weapons fresh, the Chiefs have a history of putting up big points. Look for matchups against middling defenses in Weeks 1-4 – those could easily turn into 31-27 type finals. We like the Over in Chiefs games in the first month, especially if the totals are in the low 50s or high 40s, due to the market still respecting last year’s stats. Mahomes making a statement to start the season is great news for Over bettors.
Bengals vs. Ravens Divisional Games
- Confidence: 3.5/5
Traditionally, AFC North games were defensive battles, but the Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson showdown has produced some high-scoring games recently. Both Cincinnati and Baltimore field explosive offenses now (the Ravens themselves topped 30 PPG in 2024 after revamping their scheme). Their head-to-head matchups could turn into track meets, with Burrow and Lamar trading touchdowns. The Bengals’ defense is suspect, and the Ravens aren’t the steel curtain they once were. We’re moderately confident that at least one of their two meetings will hit the Over, especially if the total is set based on outdated perceptions of “black-and-blue” divisional play.
Lions Home Games in Ford Field (Dome)
- Confidence: 4.5/5
The Lions in their dome have become one of the highest-scoring home teams in the league. Jared Goff is particularly comfortable at home, where weather and wind are non-factors and the fast turf accentuates their speed. In 2024, Detroit home games frequently turned into shootouts (remember some of those 34-31 type wins). With Detroit’s defense still a work in progress, opponents often scored as well, pushing games over the total. We love the Over in Lions home games, especially against opponents with competent offenses. The track record is strong, and until bookmakers consistently set Lions home totals in the mid-50s, there’s value to be had. A 48 or 50 total in a Lions home game? We’re likely taking the Over and enjoying the point surge at Ford Field.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Showdowns
- Confidence: 3/5
This is much more of a gut play, but Dallas and Philadelphia have all the ingredients for shootouts: top QBs (Dak and Jalen Hurts), elite receivers, and offensive-minded coaching. Their recent matchups have had a tendency to go haywire with points, including high-scoring fourth quarters and big momentum swings. There is a caveat, though: both have solid defenses, which is why our confidence for this one isn’t higher. But in divisional rivalries of this caliber, the games often break form. With NFC East supremacy on the line, neither side will hold back. We can easily envision a 30-27 type game (which would cash most overs in the low 50s). Monitor the health of key players (O-line, secondary injuries could tilt it further to an Over). When these two heavyweights go to work, we lean Over unless there’s a strong reason not to.
Final Thoughts
As we look ahead to the 2025 NFL season, one thing is clear: scoring sells, and we’re likely to see plenty of it. We’ve identified some of the teams best positioned to fuel Over bettors’ bankrolls, thanks to their star quarterbacks, playmaking talent, and go-for-broke coaching styles.
Let’s recap the main takeaways and tips for betting the Over in 2025!
- Top Over Offenses: The Chiefs, Bengals, Lions, Cowboys, and Dolphins are the teams most primed for high-scoring games. Each has an elite QB or explosive playmakers (or both) and a track record or projection of putting up big points. These teams should be on your Over radar virtually every week.
- Watch the Conditions: Target games in favorable settings; dome games and matchups likely to produce divisional shootouts (like Cowboys-Eagles or Bengals-Ravens). Good weather and familiar rivals can lead to higher scores than expected.
- Stay Informed & Shop Around: Always shop for the best line before placing your Over bet, and stay on top of injury news. A half-point here or there and a surprise inactive can make all the difference.
Betting the Over in 2025
Always bet responsibly and pick your spots because even the greatest offense will have an off-day. But with the insight from 2024’s data and a look at 2025’s projections, you’re much better equipped to find value where the oddsmakers might not fully account for an offensive surge.
Want to get in on the action? Check out the latest odds and totals by visiting our recommendations for the best sportsbooks!
