Athletics vs. Yankees Prediction & Betting Picks (June 29, 2025)
We can’t even pretend that today’s game wasn’t ugly. Not only was it a shutout for the Yankees, but we couldn’t see hide nor hair of an offense? Or a defense? The A’s obliterated them 7–0. And on their home field to add insult to injury.
The Yankees scratched out only three hits and have plated three runs throughout the first two games of the series, and that was against an A’s staff with MLB’s second-worst ERA (5.42) and the second-highest opponent batting average (.267).
Tomorrow is the series finale, and it’s tied up. NY will give the ball to Marcus Stroman, who’s back from the injured list, in the hopes of salvaging the slide so they don’t drop the set.
Luis Severino will be throwing for the A’s for the first time since he moved to Oakland. A former Yankee, he’ll be pitching on his old stomping ground but with a different uniform. Awkward!
Keep scrolling to see all of the details about the last one in this series—we’ve got betting odds, pitcher and team matchup stats, and our best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Oakland Athletics (34-51) vs. New York Yankees (47-35)
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 29, at 1:35 PM ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- How To Watch: YES Network, NBC Sports California (NBCS‑CA
- Weather: Temps are expected the hit the high 80s, and the hotter the day, the more offensive they play!
Prediction Breakdown
40.7%
59.3%
According to GamblingSite.com
Betting Lines & Energy Check
Here are the latest betting odds and lines according to ESPN BET, and how the A’s and the Yanks have been playing!
- Moneyline: Athletics (+160), Yankees (-190)
- Run Line: Athletics +1.5 (-120), Yankees -1.5 (EVEN)
- Total: Over 9.5 (+105), Under 9.5 (-125)
Saturday Result: The A’s shut out the Yankees 7–0; New York was held to 4 hits and left 7 men on base, and the Yankees have a 3-2 lead over Oakland in the series.
Probable Starting Pitchers
A familiar face comes back to the Bronx; as we said, former Yankee Luis Severino gets the nod against his former club. The Yankees will counter with Marcus Stroman, who’s back in the rotation after being out with a knee injury.
| Team | Starter | Stats |
|---|---|---|
Athletics | Luis Severino (RHP) | 2–8, 4.83 ERA across 100.2 IP, with 31 walks and 9 homers allowed. The longtime Yankee makes his first start at Yankee Stadium as a visitor. |
Yankees | Marcus Stroman (RHP) | Just activated off the IL (knee). Rehab numbers were not great—11.57 ERA over 9.1 IP—but Aaron Boone says he’s ready to go. |
Matchup Stats
- Severino Split: He’s logged a 2.27 ERA on the road but has had a harder time at home with a 6.79 ERA.
- Stroman Return: Stroman’s first MLB start since April. Rehab ERA: 11.57 over 9.1 IP. His rehab results weren’t great, but manager Boone liked what he saw in his final bullpen.
- Yankees Rotation: Schmidt (2.84 ERA in 12 starts) and Warren have pitched well, but it’s Stroman’s show on Sunday.
Our Best Bets & Props
If you’re gonna bet on this game, we have narrowed it down to three best bets and a prop if you feel like living dangerously.
Yankees Moneyline
- Why it’s smart: The Yankees open as ~–200 favorites with a ~61% win probability per simulations and odds models
- Edge: Oakland is 12–29 since May and near the very bottom in nearly every major pitching category. The Yankees are 26–14 at home this season and 3–2 against the A’s.
- Our Confidence Level: Medium; Stroman’s return does create some risk, but New York still has the all-around better roster and home-field advantage.
Under 9 Total Runs
- Why it’s appealing: The modes are leaning under 9 based on pitching and recent scoring trends.
- Matchup context: The Yankees have scored only 3 runs in this series, and Oakland hasn’t reached 6 runs in a game in over two weeks. Stroman is expected to be on a pitch count in his return, and Severino’s road starts have stayed low-scoring. There aren’t any weather factors that are likely to push the total higher.
- Our Confidence Level: Medium; neither lineup is hitting right now, and the setup leans toward a lower total.
A’s +1.5 Run Line
- Why it’s viable: The +1.5 line at plus money has some value if Stroman loses command or this ends up being a low-scoring game. Severino’s road numbers are solid, but Oakland could stay within a run if New York doesn’t break it open in the early innings.
- Reasons to be cautious: The A’s have scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their last 12 games, and their bullpen hasn’t been able to hold onto close leads or tight scores.
- Our Confidence Level: Low; it’s definitely playable as a hedge, but the lack of consistent offense and late-game stability makes it kinda risky.
Severino Over 5 Innings Pitched
- Why it’s worth a shot: He’s a former Yankee who’s been pitching into the fifth regularly. If he keeps his walks down and avoids big innings? He could get through five again.
- Risk: He’s allowed 17 earned runs over his last three starts and gave up 10 hits in five innings his last time out. His recent outings haven’t gone past 85 pitches.
- Our Confidence Level: Low; there’s been too much contact and too many short outings recently. The workload is definitely there, but the results haven’t been.
Yankees vs. A’s: What to Expect Sunday
New York has dropped two in a row and was held to four hits in Saturday’s 7–0 whopper of a loss. They’ll turn to Marcus Stroman, who’s making his first start since April after recovering from a knee injury.
Luis Severino faces his former team for the first time at Yankee Stadium, and he’s coming off an erratic stretch; he’s allowed 17 earned runs in his last three outings.
Our Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5 – Athletics 3
Betting Recap
- Yankees ML and Under 9 total runs are the best value plays based on the matchup and recent trends.
- Aaron Judge is always a really strong home run target, and he has an advantage against Oakland’s rotation.
The A’s might be able to keep the early innings close, but New York has the advantage in bullpen reliability and lineup strength beyond the fifth inning! We say they take it and win the series.
