Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm Picks & Prediction (September 16, 2025)
Can the Seattle Storm regroup to even the score, or will the Las Vegas Aces punch their way through to the semifinals with another dominant performance? For the Seattle Storm, this encounter is an elimination game. The team has a mountain to climb if it wants to recover from the 25-point loss in Game 1 and create a major upset heading to the semifinals.
The Las Vegas Aces, on the other hand, have a winning momentum to their advantage. However, they’ll have to hold their own against the Seattle Storm, which has the home-court pride and desperation. Whatever happens, you can be assured of a showdown between these two competing teams.
You might pick the Las Vegas Aces as the favorite for this game, and you won’t be wrong. But hold that thought for a second as we go through the key matchups together and analyze statistical trends to see if the Aces are truly the favorites. We will also give you the betting angles and provide our best bets with confidence levels.
Game Details
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces (30-14) vs. Seattle Storm (23-21)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 16, at 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
- How to Watch: ESPN and WNBA League Pass.
Game 1 Recap & Series Context
Game 1 Final Score: Aces 102 – Storm 77
What Happened
- The Aces dominated the game from the start to the final moments, shooting over 50% from the field and nearly 48% from beyond the arc.
- We also saw a balanced offense from the Aces, with Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum bringing the perimeter firepower. A’ja Wilson was efficient inside while Chelsea Gray orchestrated with high assist numbers.
- For the Storm, Gabby Williams and Jewell Loyd did provide offensive sparks, although those weren’t enough to swing the game. Dominique Malonga showed flashes but couldn’t back them up with consistency.
Series Context
- The Aces now lead 1-0 in the best-of-3 first round.
- The Seattle Storm faces the risk of elimination but would do so with their home crowd.
- When it comes to momentum, we will give it to the Aces, who have extended their winning streak to 16 games across the regular season and playoffs.
Key Matchups & X-Factors
- Wilson’s inside presence sets the tone on both ends. For Seattle, that will mean having a double-team or at least making Wilson work for post touches.
- Ezi Magbegor’s foul trouble in Game 1 did cost the team. As such, avoiding early fouls in this game will be critical to both teams.
- The Aces went nuclear from deep in Game 1. As such, one way Seattle can fight back would be to run them off the line and contest threes.
- Jewell Loyd has to outscore or at least match Young for Seattle to keep pace.
- Chelsea Gray is the primary engine for the Aces’ offense, as she racks up assists.
- Skylar Diggins must dictate the game’s tempo, keep turnovers low, and attack early in the shot clock.
- The Las Vegas Aces have efficient minutes from their second unit.
- On the other hand, the Seattle team will need to score over 20 points off the bench to stay competitive, as their bench was outscored significantly.
- The Seattle Storm fell apart after halftime in Game 1. It’ll have to avoid those 10-0 Las Vegas bursts for a chance at an upset.
Statistical Trends & Background
Las Vegas Aces
- Offense: The team ranks in the top 3 in offensive efficiency. It is also 1st in points per game during the regular season.
- Defense: The Aces have elite rim protection and rank in the top 5 for opponent FG%.
- Recent form: It’s been explosive for the Aces, as they ride on a 16-game win streak, with nearly 90 PPG as the average in that span.
Seattle Storm
- Offense: The team ranks in the middle of the pack when it comes to efficiency. It also relies heavily on Jewell Loyd.
- Defense: We’ve seen the team struggle against high-scoring teams. It also currently ranks in the bottom half in defending threes.
- Home record: The Seattle Storm may be stronger at home, but that hasn’t stopped them from struggling against elite competition, the kind the Aces have.
Head-to-Head (2025 Season)
- Aces 3-1 vs. Storm in the regular season.
- The average margin of victory in wins is ~14 points.
- The Seattle Storm only won when the team held the Aces under 75 points, a rare feat.
Betting Odds & Market Analysis
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Aces | -5.5 (-110) | -225 | Over 160.5 (-115) |
Storm | +5.5 (-110) | +190 | Under 160.5 (-105) |
Market Interpretation
- Oddsmakers expect a competitive game but still give the Aces a comfortable edge.
- The spread implies that the Aces will likely win by 4 – 7 points
- The total of 161.5 suggests scoring will be a bit lower than Game 1’s 179 total. It factors in a potential adjustment in Seattle’s defense at home.
Pros and Cons Breakdown
Las Vegas Aces Strengths
- The team has an elite scoring balance and is unstoppable in transition.
- We also get veteran playoff experience with the Aces.
- The team’s depth and spacing make it difficult to defend against.
Potential Risks for Aces
- Shooting regression—unlikely to stay near 50% from deep.
- The Aces will have to play on the road in a loud arena.
- They might opt for a relaxed mood after the big win in Game 1.
Seattle Storm Strengths
- The team is desperate and typically brings max effort in elimination games.
- Jewell Loyd can explode for 30+ points.
- The home crowd’s energy could swing momentum in their favor.
Seattle’s Risks
- The team has defensive mismatches at every position.
- There are a few secondary scoring options.
- An early lead from the Aces could seal their fate.
Projected Game Flow
- Seattle will likely be aggressive in the first quarter as they feed off their fans.
- The Aces will opt to weather the storm early and settle into their rhythm by halftime.
- Both teams will likely have a pivotal third quarter. For Seattle, a win here will mean they can cover or upset the game.
- The Aces have the experience and depth to hold the edge down the stretch.
Best Bets and Confidence Levels
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Aces −5.5 (-110) | Vegas dominated Game 1 and has historically covered against Seattle. Even with a road crowd, their efficiency and balance should prevail. | 8/10 |
Over 160.5 (-115) | Game 1 totaled 179 points. Even with Seattle tightening up, both offenses have the firepower to push this total. | 7/10 |
Aces -225 | The bet is a safe parlay piece. It has a lower payout but a highly probable outcome. | 6/10 |
Storm Team Total Over (if offered ~78.5 | Expect Seattle to fight harder offensively at home. Even if they lose, scoring 80+ is plausible. | 6/10 |
Can the Storm Defy the Odds at Home
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 88 – Seattle Storm 80
The Aces simply have the better balance and experience. We expect Seattle to fight harder in front of the home fans, but covering may be their ceiling.
Our best bet is Aces – 5.5, Over 160.5. You can expect a closer contest than Game 1, but the game will still tilt toward Vegas.
The Aces and Storm are ready—are you? Take advantage of expert predictions and lock in your bets now with the top-rated sportsbooks here.
