Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics Betting Picks & Predictions (July 10, 2025)
The Las Vegas Aces are on their way to D.C. to take on the Washington Mystics at EagleBank Arena on July 10.
The Aces have been playing well and not so well as of late; they dropped a game 87–78 to the Liberty, but then roared back with a win over the Sun. As for the Mystics, they sealed a clutch win over the Sky, and they have Shakira Austin’s late free throw to thank for it.
A’ja Wilson’s still the main player for Vegas, but she’s been having lower-leg issues. The Mystics are dealing with a disrupted backcourt; Georgia Amoore is still sidelined, and the rotation has been relying a ton on rookies and short-term depth signings.
Even though the Aces have the talent advantage, they’re only 4–6 on the road. Washington’s 6–3 at home and has more momentum, and that makes it interesting. Vegas is the obvious favorite, but Washington having home court advantage makes the spread tighter than most expected it to be.
Keep reading to see the team matchups, any market misreads, the latest betting odds, stats, and our picks for the three best bets and a decent bonus prop!
Match Details & What’s at Stake
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces (9-10) vs. Washinton Mystics (9-10)
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 10, 7:00 pm ET
- Venue: Entertainment & Sports Arena, Washington, D.C.
- Last 5 – Aces: L-W-L-W-L
- Last 5 – Mystics: W-L-L-W-W
Betting Odds & Market Movement
If you’re betting on this WNBA matchup, look below for the latest odds courtesy of ESPN BET:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Aces | +2.5 (-115) | +110 | Over 158.5 (-110) |
Mystics | -2.5 (-105) | -130 | Under 158.5 (-110) |
Main Stats & Trends to Know
What do you need to know? Look below for the main stats and trends of both the Aces and the Mystics!
- The Aces on the road: 4-6
- The Mystics at home: 6-3
- Aces: 79.6 PPG, 40.8% FG, 33.7% 3PT
- Mystics: 79.1 PPG, 43.0% FG, 33.1% 3PT
- Aces: A’ja Wilson (22.5 PPG, 10.2 RPG), Jackie Young (17.2 PPG, 3.8 APG), Chelsea Gray (12.7 PPG)
- Mystics: Shakira Austin (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG), Brittney Sykes (17.4 PPG), Sonia Citron (14.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
- Aces: Megan Gustafson (Lower leg), A’ja Wilson (Day-to Day)
- Mystics: Georgia Amoore (ACL injury)
Pro Betting Analysis & Insights
Next up, let’s take a gander at the important factors that could affect how this one turns out!
Tactical Breakdown
- Mystics’ Half-Court Defense: Washington thrives on forcing tough, low-percentage shots in the half-court. Their help-side rotations and ability to contest without fouling could frustrate Vegas’ interior-focused offense—especially if A’ja Wilson is limited or out.
- Guard Matchups Favor D.C.: The Mystics’ perimeter defenders, led by Brittney Sykes and rookie standout Sonia Citron, match up well against the Aces’ backcourt. If they can keep Jewell Loyd from heating up early, it may force Las Vegas into uncomfortable offensive sets.
- Aces’ Transition Reliance: Vegas looks best when they’re running. But against a Mystics team that limits turnovers and controls the tempo, transition opportunities may be rare. That puts more pressure on Vegas to execute in the half-court, where they’ve struggled lately.
Situational Factors
- Mystics Riding Momentum: Washington has won three of its last four games and appears to be finding its identity. Confidence is high, especially at home where they’ve been tough to beat.
- Aces on a Road Skid: Vegas has dropped several road games recently and comes in with travel fatigue, a banged-up roster, and limited offensive rhythm. That’s not the combination you want against a defensive-minded opponent.
- Playoff Positioning Stakes: Both teams sit at 9–10 with the season entering its second half. This game has real implications for playoff seeding and tiebreakers, making every possession matter more—something that favors the steadier, more composed Mystics roster right now.
Our Best Bets
Ready for our best bets? We’ve chosen three wagers that look good and a bonus prop for those looking for some side action!
#1 Las Vegas Aces -10.5
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Home Advantage: Washington is 6–3 at home this season and riding strong momentum there.
- Health Edge: The Mystics are much healthier; the Aces may be without A’ja Wilson or see her limited.
- Recent Form: Washington has won 3 of its last 4 and looks more cohesive than Vegas right now
#2 Under 158.5 Points
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Offensive Struggles: Both teams rank in the bottom third in PPG—Aces at 79.6, Mystics at 79.1.
- Pace of Play: Expect a slower, defensive-focused game with playoff positioning on the line.
- Recent Trends: 6 of the Mystics’ last 8 games have gone under the total.
#3 Mystics –2.5 Spread
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Cover Potential: The Mystics have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 home games.
- Undermanned Opponent: Without Wilson, Las Vegas lacks reliable inside scoring and rim protection.
- Defensive Pressure: Mystics’ top-tier defense should force enough stops to create separation late.
The Final Buzzer – Our Last Word & Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Washington Mystics 77, Las Vegas Aces 70
This matchup between the Mystics and Aces feels like a turning point for both teams. With identical 9-10 records, they’re neck-and-neck in the standings—but Washington holds the edge with home-court advantage and a roster that’s coming together at just the right time. The Mystics’ defense has been quietly elite, and their young core, led by Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, continues to impress under pressure.
Las Vegas, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency, especially on the road. If A’ja Wilson is limited or sits out, the scoring burden will fall heavily on Jewell Loyd, which could make it tough for the Aces to keep pace. Unless Vegas can flip the script, this looks like a great spot for the Mystics to notch a statement win and keep climbing in the standings.
