Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Preview & Prediction (August 15, 2025)
The Las Vegas Aces have been on a heater, winning five in a row! Next up, they head to Phoenix to play the Mercury, who want to end that streak and take one on home court.
Tip-off is at 10 pm at the Footprint Center in Arizona, and playoff position is at stake for both WNBA teams; there are only a few weeks left in the regular season.
Who are we backing? Keep reading to find out what the latest betting odds say, recent team forms, trends, who’s playing, who’s injured, and our picks for the three best bets!
Matchup Details
- Game Details: Friday, August 15, 10:00 pm ET
- Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
- Team Records: Las Vegas Aces: 19–14 (8–9 road); Phoenix Mercury: 19–12 (11–4 home)
- Season Standings & Stakes: Locked in a race for the 3rd or 4th seed and home-court advantage.
- Win Probability (ESPN Analytics): Phoenix, 50.5%, Las Vegas, 49.5%
Recent Form & Trends
The Aces have been going up in the standings and are killing it on the road, and Phoenix’s defense is stellar; they’re still competitive even though they haven’t been winning every game.
Las Vegas Aces
- The Aces are 7–3 in their last 10 games, and have a three-game road win streak.
- They’re averaging 84.7 points per game on 43.3% shooting.
- Their defense has been really active, generating 7.8 steals and 4.6 blocks per game.
- Bench players have delivered more scoring, and late-game shot selection has been super disciplined.
Phoenix Mercury
- The Mercury are 4–6 in their last 10 games, and they have an average scoring margin of –2.1 points.
- They are allowing only 79.5 points per game, which ranks them third in the WNBA.
- Opponents are shooting only 42.1% from the field against them, as they regularly force low-percentage looks.
- Phoenix is always a good opponent when they’re on home court; they’ve won 11 of 15 games on their hardwood this season.
Head-to-Head in 2025
What do H2H records look like for these two?
- Last matchup: Las Vegas won 84–81 on June 29.
- A’ja Wilson posted 26 points, 18 rebounds, and 7 assists in that game.
- Last five meetings: Aces are ahead 4–1.
Betting Odds
Ready to place your wagers? Before you do, check out the latest odds and lines from FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Aces | +4.5 (-110) | +160 | Over 168.5 (-112) |
Mercury | -4.5 (-110) | -200 | Under 168.5 (-108) |
Heads-up: Betting lines often change as tip-off approaches, so double-check the latest odds before you place your wager to make sure you’re getting the best value.
Market Notes
- Sportsbooks have Phoenix as the slight favorite in this game; they’re leaning on their home record and the Aces being short-handed in the frontcourt without Parker-Tyus.
- The total is set in the mid-160s, which is in line with the league average and both teams’ recent scoring trends.
Injury Report & Main Players
Who’s sitting this one out, and who’s hitting the floor?
Injuries
- Aces: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus is out (personal), and that decreases their frontcourt depth and rim protection.
- Mercury: No major injuries are reporte,d and a full rotation is expected.
Players to Watch
Here’s the lowdown on the players you should be watching!
Las Vegas Aces
- A’ja Wilson: She’s the MVP candidate who is averaging 22.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game; a pretty impossible cover for any defense.
- Kelsey Plum: She’s a really aggressive driver who can change the momentum of a game with transition scoring.
- Chelsea Gray: A veteran point guard who controls tempo and creates quality looks for her teammates.
Phoenix Mercury
- Kahleah Copper: She puts up over 17 points per game and brings energy at both ends of the court.
- Alyssa Thomas: An all-around contributor who rebounds, facilitates, and defends at a high level.
- Diana Taurasi: She’s a constant threat in big moments despite having a lower shooting percentage this season.
Our Best Bets
And here’s what we are looking at for the three best bets according to the market data and recent trends:
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Mercury -200 | ★★★☆☆ (3/5) | The Mercury have strong defensive numbers at home and have some extra motivation after losing to Las Vegas last time. |
Aces +4.5 (-110) | ★★½☆☆ (2.5/5) | The market tilts toward Phoenix, and that creates value on Las Vegas, which is coming in on a winning run. |
Under 168.5 (-108) | ★★★☆☆ (3/5) | Both teams defend really well, and Phoenix is likely to slow down the scoring pace. |
Optional Prop Bets to Consider
Want a couple of extra angles? We got you!
- A’ja Wilson Over 21.5 Points: Wilson should get more scoring chances with Parker-Tyus being unavailable.
- Total Assists Under 37.5 Combined: Expect to see fewer assist chances and a more deliberate playing style.
The Final Whistle Forecast: Aces or Mercury?
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 82, Las Vegas Aces 77
Phoenix and Las Vegas are neck-and-neck in the WNBA standings, and this game has playoff implications!
We are backing the Mercury, as its interior defense and solid record at home give them a small advantage, but Las Vegas has been in form lately, and they will not make it an easy win by any means.
If the Mercury force low-quality looks and keep the game centered around the basket, scoring could drop, so we like the Under 166.5 the best, and there’s some decent action on the Mercury moneyline and a couple of targeted props in play!
Best Bets Recap
- Phoenix Mercury ML ★★★☆☆
- Aces +4.5 ★★½☆☆
- Under 168.5 ★★★☆☆
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