Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Game 3 Prediction (October 8, 2025)

Bet #1: Las Vegas Aces +3.5 (Confidence 8/10)

Rationale

• The line giving Phoenix -3.5 implies that the team is nearly four points better on a neutral floor once the home court is adjusted in. However, the team’s performance data says otherwise. The Aces have been the clearly superior team in the first two games, regardless of which angle we look at it from.
• When it comes to the scoring margin, the Aces are +29 through Games 1 and 2. Their defense held Phoenix to under 43% shooting and also forced nearly 16 turnovers per game.
• Historically, Becky Hammon’s Aces are 12-3 ATS when it comes to playoff games following a double-digit win. We also have to consider the fact that the team’s ability to close out series games on the road has been consistent over the past two seasons.
• We expect an emotional momentum from the Phoenix team, but the Aces’ composure, spacing, and versatility are too much to be flustered. Even with Mercury making a run, +3.5 provides a solid cushion in a projected close finish.
• Our breakdown indicates that the market is overvaluing the “home desperation” narrative, which we agree is crucial. But the smarter play is sticking with the better team catching points in the game.

Our Predicted Margin: The Aces lose by 2 or win outright, that’s our prediction.

The Line Value: This is excellent and should be closer to the Aces +1.5.

Bet #2: Over 163.5 Points (Confidence 7/10)

Rationale

• The pace trends upwards from our last checks, especially with Game 1 hitting 161 points and Game 2 hitting 169. You can expect another uptick with Phoenix rushing the tempo in a must-win setting.
• Another reason for this bet is that the Aces have averaged 88.5 PPG in the series. The Mercury team, on the other hand, is due for shooting regression, especially from Copper and Sabally, who combined for just 3-of-15 from deep in Game 2.
• When it comes to elimination games at home, history favors faster starts and late-game fouling sequences, both of which lean more toward overs.
• Both teams have an elite offense when it comes to transition. You also have the Phoenix team that can boost its scoring efficiency if it opts for a smaller lineup to quicken the pace.
• The Aces have scored +80 in 12 of their last 13 playoff games. We don’t expect them to slow down even for the venue, as they’ve not done so in the past.
• One more point to add here. Note that an early tempo and fourth-quarter fouling can likely push this game just over the total.

Projected Total: ~168–171 points.

Key Split: 5 of the last 6 Aces-Mercury games have gone over.

Bet #3: A’ja Wilson Over 27.5 Points (Confidence 7.5/10)

Rationale

• Wilson has the potential for this prop bet, as she is on a Finals MVP mission. She has also averaged 28.5 PPG on 57% FG through two games, while commanding an incredible 33% usage rate.
• We’ve also seen the failure from Phoenix’s interior defense to contain her, with Mack and Thomas having 9 fouls per game combined from guarding her. Even so, the duo has also had minimal success in forcing her to the left.
• This game brings playoff pressure, and Wilson thrives in that. Whether it’s elimination or closeout scenarios, she’s averaged 30.1 PPG over her last six games. There’s no reason to expect less in Game 3.
• The Aces will likely continue running isolation sets for her to exploit the Mercury’s weak side help and their lack of size in secondary rotations.
• Note also that Wilson can score from midrange or draw fouls (9.5 FTA per game), even with potential double-teams. This advantage has given her multiple scoring pathways, and we expect her to use them to the fullest in securing the Aces.
• As a final note, the Phoenix team has been unsuccessful in keeping Wilson under 30 without completely breaking their defensive scheme. Except that the team has magic up its sleeves, it is unlikely it’ll do it now.

Projected Line Result: 30+ points, 12 rebounds.

Market Note: The prop has moved from 26.5 → 27.5. That shows a sharp interest in the over.

Bet #4: Lean Play | Las Vegas Aces +148 (Confidence 6/10)

Rationale

• The +138 price does give the implied odds of just a 42% win probability. However, after considering the form, we believe the Aces should be closer to 50/50 even on the road.
• The Aces have proven repeatedly that they can close out the series even on opponents’ floors. They also have the 6-1 SU in their last seven road playoff games to back that up.
• We won’t say that Phoenix has no chance; they do. However, the only clear path we see for them is one where there is a lights-out shooting night combined with heavy foul trouble for Vegas. Both are possible, but their likelihood is questionable, given the current discipline trends.
• The Aces have the chemistry and experience to withstand runs. Mercury, on the other hand, lacks the consistent secondary scoring beyond Copper.
• In summary, we consider this option a “sprinkle” value bet. It’s best for a smaller wager, but if you want to ride momentum and talent, then it can give a solid ROI potential.

Projection: The Aces will win outright 87-83.

Risk: The Phoenix’s desperation factor could trigger an early surge and cover without a winning margin.

An Optional Bonus Prop (High-Variance Pick)

• Bet: Jackie Young Over 1.5 Threes (around -125)
• Confidence Level: ★★★★★★☆☆☆☆ (6/10)
• Rationale: She has the potential, as she’s shooting 47% from three in the series, and Phoenix’s help defense leaves her open on skip passes. We expect her to attempt 4-5 triples if the pace picks up.