Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Preview & Prediction (July 24, 2025)
Who’s on the schedule tonight? It’s the Las Vegas Aces vs. the Indiana Fever for a prime time WNBA game.
Indiana’s coming off their biggest win of the season, nabbing a Commissioner’s Cup title, and they did it without their star player, Caitlin Clark (she’s still out with a groin injury). That win only shows how much they’ve grown as a team after they went through a wobbly stretch earlier this year.
The Aces are in a much different place, as they’re sitting at 8-8 and looking up at the contenders. This week’s trade for NaLyssa Smith, a former No. 2 overall pick with skills but here-and-there play, felt like it was a reactive move. Giving up a 2027 first-rounder for a rotation-level forward? That looks more like a panic move than a calculated one.
The Fever are at the same 8–8 mark, but they have a totally different vibe. Indiana has a Cup title in hand, and when Clark is back? They’re set to rise in the playoff race.
Let’s talk about star power; A’ja Wilson is playing unreal basketball right now, and Indiana will most likely be missing Clark (she’s listed as day-to-day) and possibly Sophie Cunningham, who has a mild ankle sprain.
The Aces are looking for their identity midseason, while the Fever are trying to prove their Cup success wasn’t a one-off. The styles and the stakes will give this matchup a lot of edge going into tipoff!
Keep scrolling to read the game details, the latest betting odds, team forms, and our picks for the three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces (12–11, 5–7 road) at Indiana Fever (12–12, 7–6 home)
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 24, 7 pm ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
- How to Watch: Streaming on Prime Video
- Projection: Indiana has a 57.1% edge in win probability, and Las Vegas is at 42.9%
Betting Odds & Context
If you’re betting on this game, ESPN BET has the latest odds and lines:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Aces | -2.5 (-110) | -140 | Over 163.5 (-105) |
Fever | +2.5 (-110) | +120 | Under 163.5 (-115) |
- Team Totals: Aces o82.5/u82.5 (–115); Fever o81.5/u81.5 (–110/–120)
Injury Updates
- Aces: Megan Gustafson is out with a lower-leg issue
- Fever: Sophie Cunningham is sidelined due to an ankle injury (scans came back clear; she’ll be re-evaluated before the game); Caitlin Clark is still day-to-day with a right groin issue and is unlikely to play on Thursday
Team Form & Main Factors
We talked a little about how both teams have been playing, but let’s go a little deeper into the team forms, stats, and main factors!
Las Vegas Aces
- Record: 12–11 overall, 5–7 on the road
- A’ja Wilson: She is the engine of the saves and is the most dominant scorer in the league. She put up 53 against Indiana last year and is averaging 32+ over her last three. Her footwork and strength inside are forcing constant double-teams, but she keeps converting at a high rate.
- Defense: Vegas leads the league in fewest turnovers per game (11.7) and ranks near the top in blocks. That defensive stability has helped them stay competitive when the outside shooting stalls.
- Form: They’ve been unpredictable; one game, they’re moving the ball really well and controlling the glass, and the next, they’re passive and fall behind early. Wilson gives them a high floor, but guard play has been up and down; Chelsea Gray’s limited minutes and Jackie Young’s shooting dip have thrown off the perimeter flow.
Indiana Fever
- Record: 12–12 overall, 7–6 at home
- Injury Report: Caitlin Clark (groin) is unlikely to suit up Thursday. Sophie Cunningham is listed as out, but she could play depending on her eval before the game.
- Stepping Up: In the Cup Final without Clark, Kelsey Mitchell carried the offense with slashing drives and mid-range jumpers, and Aliyah Boston controlled the paint on both ends. Mitchell’s speed off the dribble gave Minnesota mismatch issues, and Boston’s positioning helped to neutralize second-chance looks.
- Form: Indiana’s half-court execution has improved. They’re smarter with shot selection and rotations, especially when they’re at home. They’ve held opponents under 80 in three of their last five and are forcing longer possessions defensively.
Main Matchups
What are the main things we’re watching? The following:
A’ja Wilson vs Aliyah Boston
Wilson is scoring from every angle in the paint and drawing fouls at a high rate. Boston has the strength to body her up but hasn’t been able to slow down elite post scorers this season. If Indiana can hold Wilson under 30 without constant double-teams? It’ll change how Vegas runs its offense. If not, Boston risks getting pulled out of position or into foul issues.
Bench vs. Depth
With Clark and Cunningham possibly out, Indiana’s rotation is thinned out. Fagbenle and Wallace have seen more floor time, but neither one is a consistent scorer. Las Vegas will bring in Stokes, Bell, and Clark to stabilize lineups. Indiana needs scoring from someone not named Mitchell or Boston, or they’ll fall behind in the non-star player minutes.
Pace & Scoring
Neither side is built for high-volume threes, and both teams rely on half-court sets. Vegas is averaging just over 82 PPG, and Indiana usually stalls out when Mitchell isn’t creating shots. If Vegas sends extra defenders at Wilson and Indiana can’t generate clean looks off the rotation, their offense stalls and the tempo drops. On the other end, Indiana’s lack of off-the-dribble creation without Clark puts a cap on their ceiling. This matchup favors a lower total unless one team starts racking up second-chance points or transition looks off turnovers.
Our Best Bets
Where’s the value in this matchup? We have three best bets that are based on the trends, player usage, and pace projections!
| Pick | Confidence | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
| ★★★☆☆ (Medium) | Indiana’s been sharper in close games and more dependable at home than Vegas away. |
Under 162.5 (–110) | ★★★★☆ (High) | Neither team pushes tempo, and both rely on defense inside the arc. |
A’ja Wilson 23+ PTS –125 | ★★★★☆ (High) | She’s the first option on nearly every set; Indiana doesn’t have a real counter. |
Betting Angle Breakdown
How did we choose our best bets? Look below for a complete betting breakdown!
Fever +2.5 (-110)
- Our Confidence Level: Medium
Indiana’s been really dependable at home and hits the court with the stronger recent form. Vegas hasn’t looked good on the road, and the Fever have an analytics edge in win probability.
Under 163.5 (–115)
- Our Confidence Level: High
Expect a half-court game, with both teams relying on interior defense and limited fast-break chances. Injuries to main scorers will only reinforce the case for the under.
A’ja Wilson 23+ Points
- Our Confidence Level: High
Clark and Cunningham are, as of now, out, so Indiana will have to collapse the lane, and Wilson’s still going to get her looks. She’s cleared 23+ in 5 of her last 6.
Aces vs. Fever: Our Final Say
With the teams tied in the standings, Thursday’s game gives either side a shot at separation. Las Vegas has been erratic on the road all season, and despite the addition of NaLyssa Smith, they still haven’t solved their spacing issues or bench scoring gap.
Indiana’s record at home has kept them in the convo, and even if Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham don’t play, the Fever showed their ceiling by taking the Cup. The backcourt has more than stepped up, and Aliyah Boston will have her hands full dealing with A’ja Wilson’s interior presence.
Best Bets Recap
- Fever +2.5 (-110): Medium Confidence
- Under 163.5 (-115): High Confidence
- A’ja Wilson 23+ PTS: High Confidence
Final Score Prediction: Indiana Fever 79, Las Vegas Aces 75
Why? Indiana’s ability to defend at home, limit second-chance looks, and exploit Vegas’ road inconsistencies gives them the advantage. Even with Wilson pushing the pace inside, the Fever’s support pieces and defensive rotation are in a better place right now!
