2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals Prediction
The 2026 Winter Olympics are well underway, and currently, it’s Norway’s race to lose. FanDuel has Norway as the far and away favorite to claim the most gold medals before the dust settles in Italy, and time is running out for another country to give them a good sweat.
This has already been an insane Winter Olympics run, whether it be the gritty effort by seasoned veteran Lindsey Vonn or, or Austrian snowboarder Benjamin Karl claiming gold at age 40.
Can anyone actually catch Norway? Not if you ask the experts who previewed these Winter Games before they began. Norway was a top pick by many to win gold the most, and they entered the 2026 Winter Olympics with -195 odds to do just that.
Now priced as obscene favorites, bettors need to consider who can stage the upset, or if betting on who will win the most gold medals at the Winter Olympics is even worth their time. To get a good idea of where this market is at, let’s go over the latest odds and work our way to a prediction.
Latest Odds to Win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics
| Country | Odds to Win the Most Gold Medals |
|---|---|
Norway | -900 |
United States | +500 |
Germany | +3300 |
Italy | +6000 |
Canada | +6500 |
China | +8000 |
Sweden | +8000 |
Netherlands | +10000 |
Switzerland | +10000 |
Japan | +10000 |
France | +10000 |
Austria | +10000 |
Norway pulls in with staggering -900 odds to win the most gold medals in this installment of the Winter Games. They’re very much in the lead with six gold medals already claimed (at the time of this writing), while the next closest country only has three.
That’d be Switzerland, but considering their +10000 odds, they aren’t a great bet to hold onto second place for much longer.
The USA is really the only country with a legit shot to unseat Norway, but their +500 odds are both comforting and discouraging. Those odds mean they’re the team with the best chance, but they’re also a clear indication that this is quite an uphill battle ahead of them.
Pulling in third is Germany with +3300, while nobody else is even at +5000. Italy would make for a heck of a story if they could storm back as the host nation, but with their +6000 odds, they are looking like a long shot at best.
You can bet on which country will win the most gold medals now, but this demands to be analyzed further. Let’s first inspect why Norway is favored, and gauge which contenders have a real shot at giving them a run for their money.
Why is Norway Favored to Win the Most Gold Medals?
It’s pretty simple. Norway is stacked this year, and they were a -195 favorite to win the most gold hardware even before the 2026 Winter Games got going. Now that they’ve raced out to a three-medal lead over the next closest country, it’s going to be difficult to match them – let alone beat them.
They’re even making history in this year’s games:
Norway dominated the last Winter Games, too. They had more total medals (37) than anyone at the 2022 Games, and they also secured the most gold medals (16). Four years prior they were among the best, as they once again won the most total medals and tied for first in gold medal wins.
A mainstay at the Winter Olympics, Norway was always expected to be a problem for everyone else. They’ve lived up to expectations and would now need an epic collapse to fail to hold onto the top spot.
Cruising out to a big early lead is important, but Norway is going to be in contention for a lot more medals.
Top Contenders to Take Down Norway
Norway has been pretty tough to beat at the Winter Olympics for some time now. They were fully expected to be the trend setter this year, and it’d be nothing short of shocking if they actually relinquished their gold medal lead at this point.
That said, the Olympics can be pretty crazy, and there are some countries who could heat up in a hurry. The odds aren’t amazing, but if you’re betting against Norway, start with these three contenders:
United States (+500)
It’s early, but the US has already shown flashes of being a threat. Skier Breezy Johnson claimed gold in the women’s downhill event, while Team USA took gold in the team figure skating competition.
Moving forward, the United States are going to be in play for numerous events. The men’s hockey team has the second best odds (+175) to claim gold, while the women are also a terrific bet to make a run for the top spot.
That may be just two gold medals right there, but the US will also be in the mix to win in cross country events, individual figure skating competition, freestyle skiing, and snowboarding. In fact, as I write this Team USA is leading the gold medal game for curling.
Big names like Redmond Gerard, Amber Glenn, Kaila Kuhn, and the legendary Chloe Kim could put Team USA on their collective backs and give this a serious go.
Germany (+3300)
Next up is Germany, who come in at a very distant third. Germany is presently one of seven countries that has at least two gold medal wins behind Norway.
The Germans have already claimed gold in ski jumping and the luge. Max Langenhan delivered a big win for the men’s luge, but Germany will be in contention on the women’s side, as well as in the team event, where they are -150 betting favorites.
Germany will also be in play for the remaining ski jumping events. They aren’t favored to have as much success in Biathlon events like they have in the past, but +2200 odds for the women’s 4x6km relay give them a chance for an upset.
Germany’s Laura Nolte (-400) is also a huge favorite going into the two woman Bobsleigh. Does it all add up to Germany storming the castle and besting Norway? Probably not, but being favored or at least in the mix for several events makes them a compelling flier bet at +3300.
Italy (+6000)
You can bet on anyone once you get to this point, as nobody listed below the USA or Germany feels like a logical option. That said, everyone offers elite betting value in the sense that anything can happen at the Winter Games.
Italy’s inclusion among my top contenders has more to do with the fact that they’re competing on their own land and in front of their home nation. The Italians have two gold medals wrapped up already, as Francesca Lollobrigida won gold in the women’s 3000 m and Arianna Fontana led the charge in the mixed relay in speed skating.
The home country is going to be in play for several other competitions, as they should be favored or in the mix in some Alpine skiing and speed skating events.
Davide Ghiotto is entering the men’s 10000m with -135 odds, and Giovanni Franzoni (+400) looks like a contender in the Super G for men’s Alpine skiing.
Italy is going to have a shot at adding more gold medals to their pile, but catching Norway or even keeping pace with Team USA still feels unlikely.
Top Longshot Bet to Win the Most Gold Medals
Truth be told, anything after the United States feels like a pretty big gamble. The US isn’t a great bet even at +500, but if you bet on another country, you’re already not really carrying about any risk.
Naturally, you should tread lightly with any bets outside of Norway or Team USA. That said, if you’re going to go big, why not aim super high with someone like France (+10000)?
It’s a true longshot bet, but France is actually going to be a viable option in a lot of competitions. Clement Noel (+500) has the third best price going into the Slalom Men event, Erik Perrot (+500) has the second best odds for the men’s 10km Biathlon Sprint, Lou Jeanmonnot (+350) is actually favored to win the women’s 12.5km Mass Start, and Team France is a -145 favorite to take gold at the 4x6km women’s Relay.
Even sweeping those events won’t be enough, of course. However, if France can win the events they are favored in and surprise in a few others, they could be a +10000 bet worth taking a chance on.
Who Will Win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
There, you have a breakdown of why Norway is favored, who their top challengers are, and a sleeper pick that would net a sick return if they delivered.
However, this Winter Games betting market boils down to two things: Norway isn’t a country you should be betting on anymore, and you’d be best served sticking to individual event betting.
While undeniably true, I think the math points to the United States being the only viable bet here. They are favored in a slew of remaining scheduled events, and they have enough talent and sheer volume to make a push in a handful of others.
If you must bet on which country will win the most gold medals, I’d target Team USA. I think Norway still gets it done, but the United States absolutely has a path to the top spot, and you can’t beat that +500 price.
