2026 Oscars Odds, Picks, and Predictions
The 2026 Oscars are almost here. The red carpet is about to roll out, and while simply enjoying the show and honoring magnificent Hollywood performances is fun, it’s not quite enough.
Instead, you can also bet on the Academy Awards, as DraftKings has odds out for every major award category. From Best Picture to Best Actor, you can do more than just offer Oscars predictions to your friends and family; you can show them the cash you make from betting on them.
Not every Oscars bet is alike, of course, and some odds are better than others. If you want the inside track to winning Oscars picks, join me as I run through every major award and come away with my top 2026 Oscars predictions.
Best Picture Odds and Prediction
| Movie | Odds to Win Best Picture |
|---|---|
One Battle After Another | -400 |
Sinners | +275 |
Hamnet | +2000 |
Marty Supreme | +4000 |
Sentimental Value | +6500 |
Train Dreams | +10000 |
Frankenstein | +10000 |
Bugonia | +10000 |
The Secret Agent | +20000 |
F1 | +20000 |
One Battle After Another rolls into the 2026 Academy Awards with 13 nominations, which finished second only to Sinners. Sinners is shaping up as the only real threat to Paul Thomas Anderson’s baby getting the recognition it deserves.
You can make faint cases for other films. Marty Supreme has a former Oscar winner in Timothe Chalamet leading the charge in a well-made biopic (something the Academy eats up), while movies like Hamnet and Frankenstein are beautifully shot, are period pieces, and also are propped up by classic literature.
If you want a total curveball, dream big and consider the jaw-dropping Bugonia. It probably won’t win, but it’s certainly not light on captivating acting performances or raw brutality.
Of course, all roads surely lead back to One Battle After Another, which was priced at -300 at most online sportsbooks when I broke down the Best Picture odds not too long ago.
The odds have only jumped, while One Battle After Another has dominated the award circuit with wins for best film at the BAFTAs, the Producers Guild of America, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and more.
The one cause for pause? Hamnet won for Best Picture at this year’s Golden Globes. That outcome is often a mixed bag, as it can be seen as a consolation prize for a top-shelf movie that won’t win at the Oscars, or it can be a precursor to a film winning the big prize.
I’d definitely consider throwing some hedge bets on both Hamnet and Sinners, but all signs still suggest this is One Battle After Another’s race to lose.
Pick: One Battle After Another (-400)
Best Actor Odds and Prediction
| Actor | Odds to Win Best Actor |
|---|---|
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | -125 |
Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | +120 |
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | +1100 |
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | +1600 |
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | +2200 |
Michael B. Jordan is the slight frontrunner to win Best Actor, with this nod being one of a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations for Sinners. Since the movie isn’t likely to unseat One Battle After Another, I can see it soaking up some of the other awards.
This is a big one, obviously, but if we’re looking at raw talent, acting, and platform, then Michael B. Jordan is a pretty good bet. For one, he won this same award at the NAACPO Image Awards, and he gained serious steam by winning again at the 32nd Annual Actor Awards.
That said, Timothee Chalamet is an Oscar veteran at just 30 years old. He’s been in some impressive and demanding projects, and yet has been passed over in four different nomination cycles. He could have easily won for his work in Call Me By Your Name or A Complete Unknown, but his effort in Marty Supreme represents his first real shot at the elusive hardware.
This looks like a two-man race, but I am digging the value and narrative associated with betting on Chalamet. For one, the odds are pretty tight. Secondly, Chalamet has come very close more than once and got snubbed. Lastly, he won the same award at the Golden Globes this year.
It’s a close call, but Chalamet arguably delivered the more compelling acting performance, and the Academy can honor Sinners in other categories.
Pick: Timothee Chalamet (+120)
Best Actress Odds and Prediction
| Actress | Odds to Win Best Actress |
|---|---|
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | -3500 |
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) | +1200 |
Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) | +2500 |
Emma Stone (Bugonia) | +2500 |
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) | +2500 |
There isn’t a similar dilemma when trying to predict who will win Best Actress at the 2026 Oscars. That’s almost definitely going to Jessie Buckley, as the Irish actress played a complex and emotionally deep role as the wife of William Shakespeare in the highly praised Hamnet.
She has a lot going for her, seeing as the overall competition seems fairly weak, she has a strong narrative after first gaining recognition as a nominee for The Lost Daughter, and she was a huge part of a classic movie that the Academy tends to love.
Oh, and she has dominated the awards circuit, winning this same award at the SAGs, BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes. She’s a slam dunk.
The only issue here is the price. Nobody is betting on Buckley at -3500, so you’re either avoiding this wager or seeking out an upset. Emma Stone was brilliant as a suspected alien in Bugonia, but the only logical pivot is Rose Byrne.
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is a turbulent mind warp that got mixed reviews to say the least, but there’s no denying Byrne’s captivating performance. That said, this race is already settled.
Pick: Jessie Buckley (-3500)
Best Supporting Actor Odds and Prediction
| Actor | Odds to Win Best Supporting Actor |
|---|---|
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | -350 |
Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) | +400 |
Delroy Lindo (Sinners) | +600 |
Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) | +2000 |
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) | +2500 |
Another Oscar race that is likely etched in stone is Best Supporting Actor. Considering the amount of screen time he gets one could argue that Penn should be in the mix for Best Actor, but no matter what, his nuanced performance as the vile but hilariously awkward Colonel Lockjaw makes him a deserving candidate.
He’s one of the easiest picks of the lot.
Penn is in the lead, and the Academy has shown him love in the past. With two Best Actor wins to his name, he can add another Oscar trophy to the mix for a pretty unforgettable effort in One Battle After Another.
You’re not getting a ton of value at his -350 price, although it’s leaps and bounds better than betting on Jessie Buckley. Still, there are viable pivots like Stellan Skarsgard and Delroy Lindo.
Benicio Del Toro didn’t get enough screen time (a true crime) but was a scene-stealer with what he had to work with, while Jacob Elordi was riveting as Frankenstein’s monster.
That said, Penn looks locked in as the winner.
Pick: Sean Penn (-350)
Best Supporting Actress Odds and Prediction
| Actress | Odds to Win Best Supporting Actress |
|---|---|
Amy Madigan (Weapons) | +110 |
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) | +175 |
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) | +225 |
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) | +2500 |
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) | +10000 |
If you’re looking for value and/or a 2026 Oscars betting market that isn’t quite settled, look no further than the Best Supporting Actress.
Amy Madigan leads the way for her work in Weapons, but she is a plus-money favorite, meaning we can definitely look elsewhere. The top contender is Teyana Taylor as the scene-stealing rebel from One Battle After Another, but I only have eyes for Wunmi Mosaku, who was undeniably the heart and soul behind Sinners.
Those three ladies are in the fight of their lives for this award, and I can see any of them winning. However, the Academy has to honor Sinners in some way, so paying Mosaku the respect she deserves looks like a good way to do that. It doesn’t hurt that she offers supreme value at +225, either.
Pick: Wunmi Mosaku (+225)
Best Director Odds and Prediction
| Director | Odds to Win Best Director |
|---|---|
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) | -2500 |
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | +800 |
Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) | +1600 |
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) | +3500 |
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) | +4000 |
You don’t need to try very hard to predict who will win Best Director this year. Paul Thomas Anderson comes in with absurd -2500 odds to win the award, so it’s virtually guaranteed.
His film One Battle After Another is favored to win Best Picture as well, but even if it doesn’t he looks like a very strong bet due to the world he created, along with character development and overall tone. He’s cleaned up so far, taking home this same award at the BAFTAs, Directors Guild of America, and this year’s Golden Globes.
His insane betting odds mean he’s not really someone worth betting on. Oscar upsets do happen, too, so I’d either avoid this bet or take a flier on Ryan Coogler or Chloe Zhao.
Zhao undeniably helmed the most Oscars-y film of the year, as Hamnet’s gut-wrenching emotional journey was absolutely beautifully made. She won already for her work in Nomadland, however, which probably plays into why she’s not being seriously considered.
Sinners was nominated for 16 Oscars for a reason. It won’t win even half of the, but it’d be a shame if it didn’t take home a big one. It’ll have to stage some upsets to make it happen, but Coogler surviving a tidal wave of logic to come away with the win would be a fun upset to root for.
While that is where my money would be, the smart bet is still for Paul Thomas Anderson to come away with the award.
Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson (-2500)
Other 2026 Oscars Betting Markets & Picks
| Oscar Betting Market | Favorite | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
Sinners’ Total Oscar Wins | Under 4.5 (-135) | Over 4.5 (+100) |
Best Visual Effects | Avatar: Fire and Ash (-2500) | Avatar: Fire and Ash (-2500) |
Production Design | Frankenstein (-1400) | Frankenstein (-1400) |
Makeup & Hairstyling | Frankenstein (-2500) | Frankenstein (-2500) |
Costume Design | Frankenstein (-2500) | Frankenstein (-2500) |
Cinematography | One Battle After Another (-350) | Sinners (+275) |
Best Audio | Sinners (-3500) | Sinners (-3500) |
Original Screenplay | Sinners (-1800) | Sinners (-1800) |
Adapted Screenplay | One Battle After Another (-3500) | One Battle After Another (-3500) |
Best Casting | Sinners (-400) | Sinners (-400) |
Above are the other 2026 Oscars betting markets, the leading odds on the favorite to win, and my pick for who will win each respective award.
Most of these are pretty settled, and the prices are egregious to the point of avoidance. You can find some value in a few, with my favorite being the Over on the number of Oscar wins for Sinners.
For a film nominated 16 times, it’d be pretty disappointing if it didn’t win at least five times. It’s important to remember that nominations don’t mean wins, but I still like its chances, and the +100 odds are nice.
Sinners (+250) to win Best Cinematography is also one of the better 2026 Oscars upset picks you can bet on this year.
Tips for Betting on the Oscars in 2026
Before you bet on the 2026 Academy Awards, make sure you follow these helpful tips:
Follow Precursor Awards
The Oscars are decided by human voters, and as we know, all humans can be subject to influence and cave to narratives. They also can fall into groupthink, which means tracking how nominees have fared in past award shows makes a lot of sense.
No single award show guarantees results at the Oscars, but there is often a correlation between what happens at the Oscars and what goes down at the Golden Globes.
Keep tabs on marquee events, especially with the Golden Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Actor Awards all at the forefront.
Monitor Oscars Odds Movement
Early in the year, Oscar odds drop, and usually that’s when actors and movies will have their best odds. If they’re going to eventually go on to win, anyway.
But those odds can fluctuate. Favorites can tail off. Underdogs can rise up. And two actors or movies going back and forth can approach the finish line neck and neck. But how those odds move, when, and how much can give you a clue as to how you should bet.
Read into 2026 Oscars Narratives
A big thing with Oscar betting is reading into narratives. Not all narratives mean anything, but there are certain things the Academy will go out of their way to honor.
Always keep the following in mind before placing your 2026 Oscars bets:
- Career achievement recognition
- Comeback performances
- Breakout roles from rising stars
- Media-backed films
- Nominee dominance
- Cultural spotlight
We’ve seen iconic actors get celebrated at the Oscars. It’s less a “hand out” for a brilliant career, and more about a deserving talent finally getting paid respect for their hard work.
Actors that disappeared from the spotlight and returned to relevance can also be put back on the map, while young stars who pop up out of nowhere can also heat up as viable threats.
It’s important to consider how the media reports on certain films as well, while movies that dominate in the way of nominations or offer significant cultural impact or appeal should also get a slight bump when placing bets.
Best 2026 Oscars Bets
I’ve broken down all of the major Oscar award categories and offered my predictions, but some of these betting markets have egregiously priced favorites.
Naturally, you’re not betting on someone to win Best Adapted Screenplay at a staggering -3500 price tag. That likely means an upset isn’t possible, but you’re either avoiding that wager or targeting something offering better value.
With value in mind, here are the best bets for the 2026 Oscars:
- Best Picture: One Battle After Another (-400)
- Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (+120)
- Best Actress: Rose Byrne (+1200)
- Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn (-350)
- Best Supporting Actress: Wunmi Mosaku (+225)
- Best Director: Ryan Coogler (+800)
Remember, my best bets for the 2026 Oscars don’t mean these are the winners I am predicting. I already did that above when breaking down each Oscar category with the latest odds. These are more about tapping into the best pure value for each spot.
Betting on the Oscars in 2026
If you’re looking for 2026 Oscars odds and want to know the best place to bet, look no further than DraftKings. I pulled all of these wagers and the pricing above from DK, and right now, they’re arguably the top spot to bet on the Oscars this year.
DraftKings doesn’t need much of a sales pitch, as they’re one of the better-regulated sportsbooks out there, but the fact that they’re also touching on entertainment betting markets is an added bonus.
Go there to bet on the Oscars and stay there for the competitive pricing, bonuses, and wide array of bets.
I’ve handed out my top 2026 Oscars predictions and picks, but as noted, some of these categories just don’t make betting much fun. I’d definitely move away from the spots with really heavy favorites and try to locate some value.
Want my top Oscars bet for the entire event? I’d be targeting Sean Penn to win Best Supporting Actor at -350 pretty aggressively.
The price isn’t to die for, but it’s probably the best-priced 2026 Oscars bet that feels like a sure thing.
My favorite value is Chalamet (+120) to land his first Oscar win for Best Actor.
Overall, there is still plenty of value to tap into at this year’s Oscars. Lean on my picks and predictions and head to DraftKings to take advantage of some of the best pricing you’ll find anywhere online.
