2026 Daytona 500 Odds, Picks, and Prediction
It’s time to rev your NASCAR betting engines, as the 2026 NASCAR season officially gets going with the 2026 Daytona 500 firing off this weekend.
All of the best NASCAR drivers will be on hand for the biggest race of the year, with three-time winner Denny Hamlin coming in with the best Daytona 500 odds, per DraftKings.
Hamlin is just one of many drivers with +2000 odds or better, while there are a million ways to look at this race. Two-time defending champion William Byron will have his work cut out for him, as he’ll be starting all the way back in the 39th slot.
That alone is a fun narrative to track, while it will be interesting to see if a newcomer can win the Daytona 500 this year. Byron has won the last two Daytona 500 races, but we’d seen a different winner in each of the previous three runs following consecutive wins by Denny Hamlin.
It’s an exciting time, but what would make it even better is if we can come to a correct Daytona 500 prediction. Join me as I break down the latest odds and dissect the top challengers to the favored Hamlin.
Latest 2026 Daytona 500 Odds
| Driver | Odds to Win the Dayton 500 |
|---|---|
Denny Hamlin | +900 |
Ryan Blaney | +1000 |
Kyle Busch | +1000 |
Joey Logano | +1000 |
William Byron | +1400 |
Kyle Larson | +1600 |
Chase Elliott | +1600 |
Brad Keselowski | +1800 |
Christopher Bell | +1800 |
Austin Cindric | +2000 |
Denny Hamlin enters as the favorite to win the 2026 Daytona 500 this year. He’ll start from the 22nd position, but if he can work his way up to the front, he can become just the third driver ever to secure four wins at this prestigious event.
He isn’t favored by much, and it’s arguable that it’s too much of a climb to feel amazing about his chances. After all, over 70% of Daytona 500 winners have come from a top-10 spot.
That might put more of an onus on the likes of Logano, Larson, or Busch. Busch starts off in the top position, while the other three are in the top-10.
Of the top-10 options, Keselowski and Elliott may project as the most intriguing betting values.
As I said, there’s a lot to consider. If you’re betting on who will win the Daytona 500, you do need to consider track history, positioning, and recent form. Even then, you’re dealing with a huge, competitive field, making other bets (top 3, top 10) stand out as viable options.
With that, let’s dig into this year’s Daytona 500 betting odds and work our way to a final winner prediction.
Why is Denny Hamlin Favored to Win the Dayton 500?
Hamlin is one of the best drivers in NASCAR. He pulls in as the Daytona 500 favorite due to his dominance at this event, having won back-to-back in 2019 and 2020, and three times overall.
Hamlin has admittedly not won here since 2020, but he knows this track as well as anyone. While he hasn’t nabbed a win in five years, he’s still been in terrific form, as he had six wins and 14 finishes inside the top-5 last year.
The clock is ticking on Hamlin to make history, as the 45-year-old is no longer a young pup. However, the track history, talent, and recent form all combine to make him a viable bet. Age and starting position (22nd) do work against him, however.
Top 2026 Daytona 500 Contenders
Hamlin doesn’t have as clear of a path to victory as you’d like for a betting favorite. Due to that, it might make sense to look at some of the top 2026 Daytona 500 challengers:
Joey Logano (+1000)
Logano’s Daytona 500 odds are as good as anyone else’s. He also starts up front in the three spot, giving him a chance for prime control and a late race push, provided he can avoid a crash or being overtaken.
Logano is fantastic at closing races, and he knows this track, winning here in 2015. It’s been a minute since he took first place, but Logano is still in his prime at age 35 and is fresh off of a successful 2025 season where he got a win and cracked the top-10 in 13 total races.
Ryan Blaney (+1000)
Blaney shares the same Daytona 500 odds as Logano. He’s about as far up there, as he’ll be running out of the 5th position. That gives him a shot at dictating how this race unfolds, especially with these guys possibly working together as fellow members of Team Penske.
Blaney isn’t as accomplished as Logano, but he’s younger with more wins in front of him. He also got a win here in August of 2023.
He’s still won seven races so far in his career, with four coming last year. He had a terrific year, as he finished 7th here at the Daytona 500 and had 19 total top-10 runs.
Still seeking his first win at the Daytona 500, Blaney has at least flashed the ability to finish the job with six top-10 finishes here, including two runs where he was runner-up. Could this be his year?
Kyle Busch (+1000)
Let’s not forget about the veteran Kyle Busch, who looks to control positioning out of the #1 slot going into the 2026 Daytona 500. Busch is getting up there at age 40, but he’s a prolific driver with 63 Cup Series wins in his career.
Busch has never won the Daytona 500, and he failed to get a single win in the Cup Series last year, so there’s validity in doubting him. That said, he still had 10 finishes inside the top-10 in 202,5 and he was runner-up here back in 2019.
I don’t really love Busch’s chances based on everything working against him, but it’s tough to ignore his starting spot in this race. That elusive Daytona 500 win could be staring him in the face.
William Byron (+1400)
As far as legit Daytona 500 contenders go, we might as well include the defending champion before moving on. That’d be Byron, who won this thing in both 2024 and 2025.
Defending his Daytona 500 title for a third straight season would put him in elite company, but it’s obviously a bit far-fetched. It’s not easy to win a race in consecutive years, let alone one this prestigious.
Byron is still a threat to do just that, as the 28-year-old was on fire last year with three wins and eight more finishes inside the top-5. The form is fantastic, and he clearly has a handle on this track. History is simply working against him, is all.
Best Daytona 500 Sleeper Pick for 2026
- Kyle Larson (+1600)
- Chase Elliott (+1600)
- Brad Keselowski (+1800)
- Chase Briscoe (+2200)
I’m not as excited to lay money on the non-contenders, but there’s still reason to give them a look. For one, they all offer betting pricing. Secondly, some of them are still top-shelf drivers who either have won the Daytona 500 or are definitely good enough to get it done.
Larson checks virtually every box. He’s starting near the front in the 8th position, he’s in his prime at age 33, and he’s still driving as well as ever. Last year, he nabbed three first-place finishes and had 12 other races where he cracked the top-5. He’s not come all that close to winning here, but five top-11 runs keep him in the conversation.
Much like Larson, Chase Elliott has never won the big one.
He’s even younger at 30, however, and he continues to be in top form with two wins and nine more top-5 runs in 2025. He will also start the 2026 Daytona 500 from the 6th spot, so he has the perfect recipe for a first-time winner.
I wouldn’t rule out Brad Keselowski, either. He’s getting up there at age 42, but he will understandably be eager to get that elusive Daytona 500 win. Keselowski starts from the 9th hole, giving him a decent chance to put himself in the record books. He hasn’t finished better than 9th here in his last 11 tries, however.
Let’s aim a bit higher with Chase Briscoe, who may be the truest definition of a Daytona 500 sleeper when looking at this group. The 31-year-old is not the most accomplished NASCAR driver, but he is starting out of the 2nd slot in this race, and he really started heating up last year.
Briscoe scored three wins in 2025, as well as 12 other finishes inside the top-5. One of those actually came at last year’s Daytona 500, and he finished third here in 2022. He looks like a sneaky bet, and his starting position might just give him the boost he needs to shock the NASCAR world, while returning elite betting value in the process.
Top 2026 Daytona 500 Longshot Bet
Want a 2026 Daytona 500 bet that nobody will see coming? I’ll give you two.
One is a youngster who could decide to leave his mark early. I’m talking about the 23-year-old Carson Hocevar, who really started to prove his worth last year, where he cracked the top-10 in 13 different races, with two coming as runner-up.
Could Hocevar be ready to ascend the NASCAR ranks? It’s not crazy, especially when you consider he gets to start out of the 6th spot. Last year showed he can hang with the big boys. Now he can show everyone in a very big way (as a +2800 bet) that he has what it takes to beat them on the biggest stage.
Let’s dream even bigger, eh? Hocevar is a calculated risk with an ascending prospect, but sometimes a tried and true veteran can offer mind-boggling value, just as well. That has me liking Michael McDowell a bit.
McDowell is on his last legs at age 41, but he still did a fine job last year with 22 finishes inside the top-20 and six more inside the top-10. He didn’t win any races, but his last Cup Series victory came – you guessed it – at the Daytona 500 back in 2021.
He’s a longshot, to be sure, but McDowell finished 11th here last year, displayed solid overall form in 2025, and knows how to win this event. Considering he gets to start close to the front in the 10th spot, he feels like a pretty sneaky bet at his +4000 price tag.
Recent Daytona 500 Winners
| Year | Daytona 500 Winner |
|---|---|
2025 | William Byron |
2024 | William Byron |
2023 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
2022 | Austin Cindric |
2021 | Michael McDowell |
2020 | Denny Hamlin |
2019 | Denny Hamlin |
2018 | Austin Dillon |
2017 | Kurt Busch |
2016 | Denny Hamlin |
2026 Daytona 500 Prediction: Who Will Win This Year?
Betting on NASCAR tends to be a bit of a crapshoot. The same studs tend to have the best odds to win, but figuring out who actually wins is a lot easier said than done.
For the Daytona 500, I tend to think someone up front has a good shot at winning. A crash or epic performance from someone in the back can end that logic in a hurry, but history still suggests as much.
All things considered, I think Ryan Blaney is the best bet.
Blaney has solid +1000 odds to win the 2026 Daytona 500, he’s starting up front, he’s in fantastic form, and he’s done really well here.
A former winner could always rise up and get the win, but I’d bet on a new driver adding their name to the record books. Blaney stands out as the best contender to back, while Chase Briscoe (+2200) is probably the most alluring value bet this year.
