2025 Home Run Derby Predictions & Top Bets (July 14, 2025)
There is no defending champ in this year’s 2025 MLB Home Run Derby in Atlanta! Pete Alonso, who’s a two-time winner and perennial threat, chose not to participate, even though he was named to the All-Star roster. Ok, Pete! With Alonso opting out, you know what that means? One of the eight hitters on Monday night will walk away with their very first derby title!
Who do we think will take it? All of the names in the bracket are powerful sluggers, but the format, the matchups, and, of course, stamina will decide it. None of the hitters got here by accident; they all deserve to be here. But only one is leaving as the Derby king.
As always, we have some thoughts about who we think will emerge victorious (backed up by odds and stats, we aren’t just guessing), a breakdown of the hitters, live betting odds, our three top picks for the best bets, and the props to watch.
Ready to watch these eight hitters duke it out on the diamond? Batter up!
Event Details
- Date & Time: Monday, July 14, at 8 p.m. ET at Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV Broadcast: ESPN/ESPN2
- Field of Eight: Cal Raleigh (SEA), Oneil Cruz (PIT), James Wood (WAS), Matt Olson (ATL), Brent Rooker (OAK), Byron Buxton (MIN), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY), Junior Caminero (TB)
- Format: Round 1: 3 min or 40 pitches + bonus outs; Semis: top 4 bracketed head‑to‑head; Finals: 2 min/27 pitches, bonus/outs same as earlier rounds
Live Betting Odds (Outright Winner)
The 2025 Home Run Derby is divided into three rounds, so the outright winner odds will change after every matchup. If you’re betting before the first swing or hopping in later on, below are the live betting odds via ESPN BET:
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
Cal Raleigh | +260 |
Oneil Cruz | +325 |
James Wood | +400 |
Matt Olson | +700 |
Brent Rooker | +850 |
Byron Buxton | +850 |
Junior Caminero | +1000 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | +1200 |
Odds for this article updated at 9:00 am EST on July 14, 2025.
Player Rundown
- Cal Raleigh (+260): Leads the league in home runs and comes into this with the most raw pull-side lift in the field. He’s shown a ton of power from both sides of the plate all season.
- Oneil Cruz (+325): Cruz hits balls harder than almost anyone in the league. He’s also the tallest hitter in the bracket, so he has upper-deck range to all fields.
- James Wood (+400): Wood is only 22 years old, but he’s already hitting 450-foot shots in-game. He has quick hands and an easy launch, so this format suits him really well.
- Matt Olson (+700): Olson knows this park better than anyone, so he has the home crowd behind him.
Others
These are the long shots and why they’re considered as such:
- Brent Rooker (+850): Rooker has pull-heavy power and gets plenty of distance when he connects, but he has to keep the ball in the air; grounders will end his round early.
- Byron Buxton (+850): Buxton hits the ball hard when he’s healthy, but hasn’t shown a lot of lift or carry this season.
- Junior Caminero (+1000): Caminero has the hands and upper-tier exit velocity. It’s his lack of experience that makes him a long shot, not his power.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1200): He’s a fast bat, can elevate to right field, but he doesn’t have the same home run totals as the rest of the bracket does.
Format & Strategy Insights
- Bonus Time: One HR of 425+ ft in Round 1 earns 30 extra seconds.
- Tiebreakers: Longest HR wins the tie; there’s a swing-off if it’s still tied.
- What to Watch: Players with both power and stamina will last, and bonus time swings usually decide the round.
Our Best Bets
Where’s the best value for this year’s Home Run Derby? Look below for our three best bets and a bonus lean!
#1 Cal Raleigh to Win (+260)
Our Confidence Level: Medium-High
Why Do We Like It?
- Raleigh leads the MLB in home runs and pulls the ball with lift, and that’s a great fit for Truist Park’s right field!
- He’s expected to hit left-handed throughout, and that’s the side where his hardest contact happens.
- His swing is compact and doesn’t rely on max effort, and that’ll help him maintain his power during the later rounds.
#2 Oneil Cruz – Longest Home Run (Prop)
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why do we like it?
- Cruz ranks near the top of the league in max exit velocity and doesn’t even need a full swing to send the ball 440+.
- His height and long levers generate a natural lift, so if he catches one during bonus time? Cruz could post the longest shot of the night.
- Even if he doesn’t win the bracket, he’s one of the only hitters here with real 470+ potential.
#3 Over 238.5 Total Home Runs (Derby Total)
Our Confidence Level: Medium-High
Why Do We Like It?
- The last two Derbies went well over this mark: 341 in 2023 and 277 in 2024.
- Truist Park is really favorable to left-handed pull hitters, and at least half the field fits that profile.
- Because the current format allows more swings per round, and this year’s group is loaded with high exit velocity hitters, anything under 250 looks light.
Props to Watch
- Longest HR: Oneil Cruz and James Wood are the current favorites based on exit velocity and distance metrics.
- First‑Round Homers: Look out for live markets that are pegged to each player’s Round 1 totals; these are usually posted as the event kicks off.
- Head‑to‑Head Semis: Seeding after Round 1 (1‑vs‑4, 2‑vs‑3) sets up matchups. If the odds surface for these, there can be good value in underdogs who are in closer pairings!
Live Betting Opportunities
- Round 1 Live Totals: Sportsbooks will update home run lines during each round. A strong start or early bonus swings can move the number within a minute or two.
- Semifinal Matchups: Once seeding is locked, head-to-head props will post. Raleigh vs. Cruz or Wood could be really closely priced, so watch for value based on round length and swing count.
Final Swing: Who Will Rule the Derby?
How fun is it to watch players absolutely crush home runs? So fun! Even if you’re not a huge baseball fan, this event is a blast. No matter who wins, we’re just happy to watch these sluggers knock ‘em out of the park for a couple of hours.
Best Bets Recap
We’re backing these three bets:
- Cal Raleigh to win (+260): Medium-High Confidence
- Oneil Cruz for Longest Home Run: Medium Confidence
- Over 238.5 Total Home Runs: Medium-High Confidence
Raleigh and the Over offer a lot of value at the current odds, but James Wood is the best mid-tier play. His power metrics hold up, and if he posts a strong first round? His price will drop quickly.
- Last-minute tip: Check Round 1 pairings and bonus swing triggers; those are the best chances for in-event value!
If you’ve got a number that you like, take it now. Once the first bracket starts, everything moves. And it’ll move fast because tons of people are betting on the funnest night in baseball!
Our Final Prediction: We think that Cal Raleigh will win the 2025 Home Run Derby, beating Oneil Cruz 22–19 in the final.
Why? Because Raleigh’s swing doesn’t wear down, and he stays on plane without chasing any extra lift. The lefty pull power matches the ballpark, and he’ll keep his output steady across rounds. Sure, Cruz will have bigger individual totals at times, but Raleigh will put together the better full run.
Betting on the Home Run Derby can add some extra fun to watching the even. However, always make sure to do it responsibly. Placing bets on the Derby is meant to be entertaining just like the event itself. So don’t get carried away.
