2025-26 NBA MVP Race: Latest Odds & Our Prediction for Who Wins

The race for the 2025-26 NBA MVP is officially on. It’s literally been going on for months, but we have updated odds at DraftKings, with Oklahoma City Thunder star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge (-230).

But is he the rightful favorite? And should bettors be considering someone else? There are some mild cases for other players involved, while their NBA MVP odds alone demand we at least give them a cursory glance.

SGA is putting up big numbers, and he’s on the best team in the NBA. That combination is hard to fight against, but before betting on NBA player futures like this, turning over every stone is highly suggested.

Wondering who will win the NBA MVP award this year? Or simply looking for a reason not to bet on SGA? I’ll break down the latest NBA MVP betting odds, detail why SGA is favored, highlight the best alternative bets, and close things out with a final NBA MVP prediction.

Latest NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26

SGA comes in with the best odds to win the NBA MVP award this year. That makes sense, as he won the award last year and led his Oklahoma City Thunder to the franchise’s first ever championship.

Gilgeous-Alexander has admittedly done nothing to lose the award, either. He’s putting up big numbers, and the Thunder are once again in contention for the NBA’s best record.

That said, his price is not very inviting, and there are some very strong cases for some of the other options. Nikola Jokic is a walking triple-double and offers solid value, Luka Doncic would be a first-time winner and is churning out insane production, and there are a few other players listed at intriguing prices with viable arguments backing them.

Not sure who the NBA MVP winner is? Let’s go over the top options and find out the best way to bet on this award.

Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA MVP Favorite

NBA MVP awards can often come in bunches. Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic are three players who have all won back-to-back MVPs in just the last decade.

SGA continues to churn out elite production, too. He’s averaging 31.8 points per game while finding the time to dish out 6.4 assists per game. On top of that, he’s making an impact as a defender (1.3 steals per game), and shooting a career-high 55% from the field.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s team success is also tough to ignore. He’s on par statistically with where he was last year, and his Thunder haven’t skipped a beat. OKC currently owns the top seed in The Association and could be well on their way to a title defense.

The league MVP isn’t always from the NBA’s best team, but numbers like this and high-level team success certainly make for a strong case for SGA to repeat.

Why SGA Might Not Win

There are a few reasons why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might not win the NBA MVP award. The first is general fatigue. Voters have only awarded him the trophy once, but there is a pretty loud narrative that he is a “free throw merchant” and wouldn’t be nearly as impactful without getting to the line 9.2 times per game like he does.

Another issue is the competition. SGA’s team success is unmatched, and his numbers across the board are as good as anyone’s. But he’s not the top guy in a lot of key categories. If the MVP voters want to value top-shelf production, SGA may not actually be the first choice in this year’s NBA MVP race.

Top 2025-26 NBA MVP Contenders

• Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
• Luka Doncic, F, Los Angeles Lakers
• Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons

I can’t leave out Jokic, simply because he is a three-time NBA MVP winner and comes in with the second-best odds this year. He appears to be a distant second in this NBA MVP race, however, and he’s missed a good chunk of the season with an injury.

Statistically, Jokic is still a legit threat and easily a top-5 player in the league. His Denver Nuggets continue to win games at a solid rate, too. He checks every box, other than the fact that availability has been an issue, and NBA MVP voters might be sick of choosing him.

Availability is the biggest problem, though, as Jokic would no longer be eligible if he missed even one more game this year.

That seems problematic. If he can stay on the court the rest of the way he’s a threat, but that might be asking a lot.

Luka Doncic is a very interesting option. His Los Angeles Lakers are right up there with the best teams in the Western Conference and just recently were in play for the #2 seed. If the Lakers can stay among the top four seeds, he has to garner serious consideration.

Doncic carries major weight when it comes to production, star power, and narrative. His team’s success is good enough, and he’s 1st in several key categories – namely points per game – and top-5 in a bunch of others.

The narrative backing him is that he’s a superstar that puts up insane numbers, yet hasn’t won this award in his career. He may finally be due, provided the voting panel can overlook his subpar defense.

Cade Cunningham is more of a narrative and team success play. He’s led his Detroit Pistons to the best record in the Eastern Conference, and he’s averaging a double-double on the year. In the name of Steve Nash, he should be getting more of a look than he ultimately will.

My Favorite NBA MVP Sleeper Pick

What you define as being a true NBA MVP sleeper is up to you, but since the shortlist is, well, kind of short, I think anyone beyond Cade Cunningham at +2000 qualifies as a sleeper.

All things considered, the value bet with the most compelling case to win the NBA MVP award has to be Jaylen Brown. He’s not considered a true contender, but he offers a fun price tag at +3500, and he actually has a strong case.

Context is key here, as the Boston Celtics were not supposed to be this good after seeing Jayson Tatum tear his Achilles during the playoffs last season.

Jaylen Brown, to this point, hadn’t been asked to be his team’s top scoring option, either. The 29-year-old responded with what has become his best season to date, as he’s putting up an insane 29.5 points per game while keeping his Celtics near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Boston may not get the #1 seed when it’s all said and done, but the fact that they’re even remotely in the mix is absurd. Brown’s numbers are a big reason why, too, as he’s racking up seven rebounds and 4.8 dimes per game, while shooting a healthy 48.6% from the floor and also contributing on the defensive side.

It’s not the sexiest NBA MVP pick, but it’s a high-value option that just might have legs to it.

Best NBA MVP Bets Right Now

• Favorite: SGA (-230)
• Challenger: Luka Doncic (+2000)
• Sleeper: Jaylen Brown (+3500)

If you want the best NBA MVP picks to target right now, I think it comes down to three different types of bets. SGA is the clear favorite and likely winner, Doncic is probably the most compelling “realistic” contender, and Jaylen Brown is the most enticing high upside dice roll.

That doesn’t mean we should ignore Nikola Jokic at +350 or that we can’t bet on Cunningham at +2000, but these are best overall bets for this market.

Key Factors That Decide Who Will Win the NBA MVP

There are a few things you need to keep in mind when betting on the next NBA MVP. Throughout history, most of the winners have had much of the same criteria, making the following pretty important:

• Team Success
• Elite Production
• Positive Advanced Metrics
• Individual Narrative
• Availability

It’s pretty simple. To win the NBA MVP, your team can’t be bad. You don’t need to have the #1 seed or the best record in your conference necessary, but it does help. And no matter how good your numbers are, you’re not claiming the hardware if your team isn’t among the league’s best.

On top of strong team success, you need big-time numbers. MVP winners typically lead the league in scoring or are at least close to it. The ones that don’t need to dominate in another fashion like Steve Nash, who averaged a double-double in his two MVP wins.

Sometimes the MVP race goes deeper with advanced metrics playing a role. This isn’t always a deciding factor, of course, and is often used more to differentiate in the event of a tight MVP race.

Just as meaningful as those criteria, however, is a good storyline. Narrative is important to a strong NBA MVP case, although we’ve seen people win it without it.

Lastly, you need to play most of the year. It’s hard to be the MVP of your own team – let alone the face of the NBA – if you’re not actually on the court. As long as you check all of these boxes, you’re at least in the conversation.

Recent NBA MVP Winners

2025-26 NBA MVP Prediction – Who Will Win?

All roads undeniably lead back to SGA. The NBA media fawns over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and it doesn’t appear that anyone voting on the NBA MVP winner cares about his negatives. And the betting apps seem to feel the same way.

To be fair, nobody can rival his efficiency, team success, or across-the-board elite play. The fact that he’s not a minus on defense like some other candidates also aids his case.

If SGA doesn’t win, my next best bet is Luka. He is crushing statistically, and if the Lakers can push their way to the 2nd or 3rd seed, I think he has a real chance to unseat SGA. That said, NBA MVP winners can repeat when the case is as strong as it is with SGA. Perhaps Luka will be a more compelling bet next year.