Updated World Cup Power Rankings: Ranking the Teams Still Alive

Two of the biggest names in world football are already booking flights home, and we are only seven matches into the World Cup knockout rounds. Germany went out on penalties to Paraguay. The Netherlands lost the exact same way to Morocco. So as the Round of 32 grinds on through July 3, the question that matters is a simple one: of the teams still alive, who actually looks capable of lifting the trophy at MetLife Stadium on July 19? The short answer is France, and right now it is not especially close. Below are our updated World Cup power rankings of every serious contender still standing, from Les Bleus at the top to the Cinderellas hoping the clock never strikes midnight.

One caveat before the list: the Round of 32 is not finished. Seven teams have already reached the Round of 16, but nine ties are still to be played, so treat this as a snapshot of where things stand today. Check back after the weekend and a few of these names will have moved (or vanished). If you want to see how far the board has shifted since kickoff, hold it up against our pre-tournament World Cup predictions from early June.

Where the Bracket Stands Right Now

Seven teams are through to the Round of 16 and seven have already been eliminated. France, Brazil, Mexico, Morocco, Norway, Paraguay and Canada have booked their places in the last 16. South Africa, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands, Ivory Coast, Sweden and Ecuador are out. The other nine ties, including the United States, England, Spain, Argentina and Portugal, run from July 1 through July 3.

The headline so far is chaos at the top. Germany and the Netherlands, two of the most decorated programs on the planet, both bowed out on penalties inside 24 hours, which reshaped the entire bottom half of the draw. It is the kind of early turbulence we saw coming when we broke down the winners and losers of the opening week. For the live picture as the ties finish, you can cross-check the official FIFA bracket.

Tier 1: The Genuine Favorites

Five teams have separated themselves as legitimate title threats, and the futures market agrees. France is the clear favorite at around +185, trailed by Argentina, Spain, Brazil and England. These are the sides with the squad depth and the ceiling to win five straight knockout games, which is exactly what the 48-team format now demands.

1. France

France look like the most complete team in the tournament, and the oddsmakers have priced them accordingly at roughly +185 on the futures board at DraftKings. Les Bleus won all three group games, then dismantled Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32. Kylian Mbappé is doing Kylian Mbappé things, Ousmane Dembélé already has a hat trick (that came against Norway), and Michael Olise has been the tournament’s sharpest creator from the number 10 role. The one thing they have not faced yet is real adversity, and that is the single question mark worth holding onto.

2. Argentina

The defending champions are humming along and sit second in the title market at around +430 at BetMGM. Argentina swept their group, then rested key starters once the Round of 32 was secured. Lionel Messi has been directly involved in goal after goal, and the pedigree of a reigning champion speaks for itself. The concern is a familiar one: this is a smaller, technical side that can look vulnerable against bigger, more physical opponents, and it still leans heavily on Messi’s brilliance. A Round-of-32 date with Cabo Verde is up first.

3. Spain

Spain remain a top-three threat on talent alone, even if the performances have been a little labored. The reigning European champions ground through their group, beating Saudi Arabia 4-0 and edging Uruguay 1-0 around a scoreless draw with Cabo Verde. Lamine Yamal is still working back to full sharpness and Rodri has looked a step below his best at the base of midfield, which is why Spain sit closer to +650 than shoulder-to-shoulder with France. The ability is undeniable. The rhythm is not there yet. Austria is next.

4. Brazil

Here is where we break from the market a little. Brazil are priced around +1000, longer than England, but they have looked the part and they are already through. Under Carlo Ancelotti, this is the most watchable Brazil side in years: they closed the group with back-to-back clean sheets, then saw off a dangerous Japan 2-1 in the Round of 32. Vinícius Júnior has been electric with four goals and the attack has genuine teeth. The veteran back line has not been truly stressed yet, but on the eye test, Brazil belong above a couple of teams the oddsmakers rate higher.

5. England

England have the roster of a champion and, at times, the finishing of a team that cannot get out of its own way. The talent is everywhere, Harry Kane is a one-man scoring machine, and the defense has been miserly. But England also lead all 48 teams in big chances missed, and the football has been labored against deep blocks. At around +800 they are the market’s fourth choice, and the ceiling is obvious. They just have to start burying the chances, starting with a Round-of-32 test against DR Congo.

Tier 2: Live Contenders and Dangerous Floaters

The next group can absolutely reach a semifinal, and at least one of them probably will. These are the teams with a real path to a deep run if the bracket breaks their way: Portugal, Morocco, Mexico, Colombia and Belgium. None would be a shock in the final four.

6. Portugal

Portugal have the talent of a Tier 1 side and the results of a team still trying to click. They dominated possession throughout the group, hammered Uzbekistan 5-0, and got a brace from Cristiano Ronaldo, but a flat 0-0 draw with Colombia exposed the gap between all that territory and actual chances created. A Round-of-32 meeting with Croatia is the toughest draw any contender pulled. Get past that, and the belief will follow.

7. Morocco

Do not overthink this one: Morocco are the real deal, and they are already through. The 2022 semifinalists knocked out the Netherlands on penalties after taking a point off Brazil in the group, and they defend like their lives depend on it. Ismael Saibari has three goals and Bilal El Khannouss gives them a genuine game-breaker out wide. The one real worry is depth, because a thin bench means the starting XI has to carry the load deep into July.

8. Mexico

The co-hosts are the best story of the tournament that nobody outside Mexico saw coming. El Tri won all three group games without conceding much, then handled Ecuador 2-0 to reach the Round of 16, and the futures market has taken notice as their number keeps shortening. Home crowds have been worth something close to a goal a game. Whether that carries against elite opposition is the open question, but right now Mexico are rolling.

9. Colombia

Colombia have quietly been one of the tournament’s most complete teams, and they were the biggest climbers in most power rankings after the group stage. They smothered everyone in their group, conceded almost nothing, and drew Portugal 0-0 to finish top. Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez give them star quality in the wide areas, and they out-work opponents all over the pitch. Ghana is next, and Colombia should be favored to advance.

10. Belgium

Belgium’s golden generation is older now, but it can still hurt you. Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Leandro Trossard carry the kind of big-game experience most squads would kill for, and a 5-1 rout of New Zealand to close the group was a reminder of the ceiling. The flip side is obvious: tired legs only carry a team so far through a five-round gauntlet. Senegal, a genuinely dangerous opponent, stands between them and the Round of 16.

Tier 3: Dark Horses and Host Nations Still Standing

Below the contenders sit the teams that could crash a quarterfinal and the hosts still carrying a nation’s hopes. None are favorites, but every one of them is capable of ruining a bigger team’s summer.

11. Norway

Norway are at their first World Cup since 1998, and they did not come to make up the numbers. Erling Haaland is finally on this stage and capable of deciding a game by himself, with Martin Ødegaard pulling the strings around him. They beat Ivory Coast 2-1 to reach the Round of 16. The defense is the soft spot, so Norway’s ceiling comes down to whether their stars can simply outscore the problem.

12. Croatia

You can never write off Croatia in a knockout tournament, and here they are again. The 2018 finalists and 2022 bronze medalists lost 4-2 to England in the group but still advanced, and Luka Modrić is somehow still orchestrating everything in midfield. Their reward is a Round-of-32 clash with Portugal, which might be the most compelling tie of the entire round. Whoever survives it becomes a team nobody wants to see in the Round of 16.

13. United States

The co-hosts are still standing, and home advantage is very real. The USA opened with a statement 4-1 win over Paraguay and beat Australia before a 3-2 loss to Türkiye, and Folarin Balogun has looked like a genuine tournament striker up front. The midfield trio of Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman gives the Americans a spine. The worries are Christian Pulisic’s fitness (he has been managing a calf issue) and a defense that cannot afford a single lapse. Bosnia and Herzegovina is the Round-of-32 assignment.

14. Paraguay

Paraguay are the Cinderella of the knockouts, full stop. They shocked Germany, holding on for a 1-1 draw before winning the shootout 4-3 to reach the Round of 16, and they defend with the kind of organization that turns every tie into a grind. Nobody is projecting them to win it all, but they have already produced the upset of the tournament, and a well-drilled team that is hard to break down is exactly the sort of side that steals another knockout game.

The Longshots Still Dancing

Everyone else still alive is a genuine underdog, but a few are worth a mention. Canada deserve real credit: the co-hosts are already through to the Round of 16 after a 1-0 win over South Africa under Jesse Marsch, capping a strong tournament for the North American hosts across the board. Switzerland, Senegal and Australia have Round-of-32 ties still to play and all carry a puncher’s chance, with Senegal’s athleticism a real problem for Belgium.

Then there is the true Cinderella tier. Cabo Verde, a tiny island nation that held Spain to a draw in the group, now gets Argentina, while DR Congo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Austria, Algeria, Egypt and Ghana are all heavy underdogs to reach the quarterfinals. Then again, this tournament has already sent Germany and the Netherlands packing, so nobody should be printing semifinal tickets just yet.

That is the board as it stands. France are the team to beat, Mexico and Morocco are the dark horses with the most momentum, and a weekend of Round-of-32 football will thin the herd in a hurry. We will update these rankings as the bracket sets, and if you want a bet to sweat along the way, our daily World Cup picks break down the best angles game by game.

Frequently Asked Questions

Still sorting out who is left and who is favored? Here are the quick answers as the Round of 32 plays out.