The Divergence Board
The Divergence Board shows where sportsbooks and prediction markets disagree on the odds for major title and series outcomes. Each row compares the sportsbook consensus implied probability with the prediction-market price (Polymarket or Kalshi) for the same team, then ranks every outcome by the size of the gap between the two.
It updates automatically as the markets move. The biggest disagreements float to the top, so you can see at a glance which futures the betting market and the prediction-market crowd are pricing very differently right now. The board is a research lens, not a tip sheet: it tells you what each market thinks, not what to do about it.
How To Read The Board
Every row is a single outcome, such as one team to win a championship. Two numbers sit on a shared 0-100 track so the gap reads as physical distance, and the exact figures appear underneath.
- Sportsbooks % – the consensus implied probability across the books we track, with the vig removed.
- Prediction market % – the implied probability quoted by Polymarket or Kalshi for the same outcome.
- The gap – the difference between the two, labeled “sportsbooks higher” or “crowd higher” so you can see which side is more bullish.
- Notable gaps – rows where the two markets disagree by four points or more are highlighted, because that is where the conversation usually is.
How We Calculate The Numbers
Both figures are each market’s own implied probability, attributed to its source. The sportsbook number is the consensus across books with the vig removed, normalized across the full field so the whole market sums to 100%. The prediction-market number is the price quoted on Polymarket (or Kalshi), read straight from that venue’s market for the same outcome.
Because the two are built differently – one normalized across a whole field, one a standalone market price – they will not always line up even when the markets broadly agree, and prices on long futures fields can run a touch higher on a prediction market. That is part of what the gap is showing. We pull the data continuously and refresh the board on a schedule; the time stamp at the top tells you how recently the numbers were updated.
Why The Two Markets Disagree
Sportsbooks and prediction markets are priced by different crowds with different incentives, so they often arrive at different numbers for the same outcome. Neither is “right” – they are two honest reads on the same question, and the gap between them is the interesting part. A gap is a difference of opinion between markets, never our prediction or a recommendation to bet a side. If you want to see how we apply this thinking to specific games, browse our betting picks, and explore the rest of our betting tools for more ways to check a number before you trust it.
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Frequently Asked Questions
A few common questions about what the Divergence Board shows and how to use it.
What does a gap on the Divergence Board actually mean?
It is the difference between two markets’ implied probability for the same outcome: the sportsbook consensus versus the prediction-market price. A four-point gap means one market gives that team a four-percentage-point better chance than the other. It is a difference of opinion, not a signal that either side is wrong.
Why are the sportsbook and prediction market numbers calculated differently?
The sportsbook figure is the consensus across books with the vig removed and normalized across the whole field, so the market sums to 100%. The prediction-market figure is the standalone price quoted on Polymarket or Kalshi for that one outcome. Both are each market’s honest implied probability; they are just built on different bases, which is why they can differ even when the markets broadly agree.
Does a big gap mean I should bet that side?
No. The board is a research lens, not betting advice. A gap tells you two markets disagree; it does not tell you which one is right or that there is value on either side. Always do your own research and bet within your means.