San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks Game 4 Prediction (6/10/2026)
Our best bet for Game 4 of the NBA Finals is the Knicks -1.5 (-118 at BetMGM) when New York hosts San Antonio at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday, June 10. The Spurs’ 115-111 Game 3 win was real, but it leaned on the kind of edges that rarely carry over: a 9-of-11 shooting start, a 61% night from Victor Wembanyama, and a 24-8 second-half free-throw gap that had Mike Brown simmering at the podium. New York still lost by only four with Karl-Anthony Towns stuck on 11 points, and the books are pricing the response spot barely above a pick’em.
The catch, and it’s a real one: the road team has won all three games of this series, just the second time that has ever happened in the NBA Finals, so home court has meant nothing here so far. New York leads 2-1 and gets the first crack at restoring order after its 13-game playoff win streak died Monday night. We took the Under in Game 3 and the series promptly sped up to 226 combined points, so we’re staying off the total this time. The side is where the value sits.
Madison Square Garden, New York
Matchup Overview
San Antonio walked into the Garden on Monday and made 9 of its first 11 shots, stacking a 33-22 first quarter before New York’s defense found its footing. The Knicks answered with an OG Anunoby-fueled second quarter to lead 64-57 at the break, but the second half belonged to the Spurs: Wembanyama (32 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists on roughly 61% shooting) controlled both ends, Stephon Castle poured in 23, and De’Aaron Fox hit the late shots that mattered. San Antonio led 111-104 with under two minutes left, and Castle closed it out at the line, 115-111.
The loss snapped New York’s 13-game playoff winning streak, the second-longest run in NBA playoff history, and it was the Knicks’ first defeat of any kind since April 23. Jalen Brunson gave them 32 and Anunoby 28, but Towns never got going (11 points) and Mikal Bridges spent the night in foul trouble. Brown didn’t hide his irritation afterward, pointing at the Spurs’ 24-8 edge in second-half free-throw attempts, while still tipping his cap: “I tell the guys, it’s a seven-game series for a reason. They are a great team.”
The availability picture is clean for mid-June. Brunson has played through knee discomfort since a Game 1 scare and clearly isn’t limited, Mitchell Robinson keeps logging minutes despite his banged-up right hand, and the league confirmed Wembanyama will not receive a flagrant upgrade for his Game 3 shove on Brunson, so there’s no suspension subplot hanging over the NBA Finals schedule. The stakes are simple: a Knicks win restores a 3-1 stranglehold, while a Spurs win evens the series at 2-2 and hands home-court advantage back to San Antonio with Game 5 set for Saturday.
Odds & Line Analysis
BetMGM has Game 4 at Knicks -1.5 (-118), with the total at 215.5 and the moneyline at New York -135 / San Antonio +110. The market has actually tightened toward the home team since Monday night: DraftKings opened this game at Knicks -1.5 with a -125 moneyline and has since pushed to -2.5 and -130, and the wider multi-book consensus sits at Knicks -2 on a 216 total. Read that again. New York just lost at home, and the spread got bigger. That’s money backing the response, not the trend.
The book-to-book gap is the story for bettors. A series decided by 10, 1, and 4 points is exactly the spot where the difference between -1.5 at BetMGM and -2.5 at DraftKings turns wins into pushes and pushes into losses, so shop before you bet; our point spread betting guide covers why those half-points matter so much. As for the total: this series has produced 200, 209, and 226 combined points against numbers in the 214.5-216.5 range. That whipsaw has burned bettors on both sides, and a 215.5-216 number sitting about four points above the series average is a stay-away for us tonight.
Key Factors
Three angles drive this pick: the Towns bounce-back, the low-repeat edges that decided Game 3, and the honest case against laying points with New York.
Towns went for 18 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1, 21 and 13 in Game 2, then managed just 11 points on Monday while New York’s offense stalled late. Getting him involved down the stretch was the Knicks’ stated priority heading into Game 4. New York has scored 105, 105, and 111 in this series with its second star alternating between productive and invisible; if Towns lands anywhere near his first-two-games form, the home side has the extra gear it was missing.
San Antonio opened 9-of-11 from the floor, got a 61% shooting night from Wembanyama, and attempted 24 second-half free throws to New York’s 8. All of that happened, and the Spurs still won by just four. Those are variance pieces, not structural advantages, and Brown made sure the second-half whistle became the talking point of the off day. New York’s two constants (Brunson at 32, Anunoby at 28) produced even in the loss.
The road team has won every game of this series, only the second Finals ever to start that way, so laying points for MSG home court means paying for something that hasn’t shown up yet. Wembanyama leads all scorers at 29.0 points per game and has climbed every game (26, then 29, then 32), and San Antonio went 17-8 against the spread as an underdog this season per SportsLine’s database. That resume is why this pick is a standard play and not a heavy one.
The Pick
Take the Knicks -1.5 at BetMGM, and treat the number as part of the bet: -1.5 is a meaningfully better ticket than the -2.5 floating around elsewhere, and if everything sits past -2 by tip, the edge has thinned. New York lost by four in a game where San Antonio hit nearly everything early, won the second-half free-throw count by 16 attempts, and got a 61% night from its superstar.
The Knicks counter at home, where they went 30-10 in the regular season and covered at a 68% clip (32-15-1 against the spread, per SportsLine), with Brunson and Anunoby already rolling and Towns the obvious bounce-back piece. The road-team trend is real and so is Wembanyama, which keeps this a standard play rather than a max bet. We see New York getting to 3-1 by a possession or two.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to what bettors are asking before Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4.
What time is Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4, and what channel is it on?
Game 4 of the NBA Finals tips off Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET on ABC from Madison Square Garden in New York. It is the second straight game at MSG, with Game 5 scheduled for Saturday, June 13 in San Antonio.
Who is winning the Spurs vs. Knicks series going into Game 4?
New York leads the best-of-seven Finals 2-1. The Knicks won Game 1 105-95 and Game 2 105-104 in San Antonio, and the Spurs answered with a 115-111 win in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. The road team has won all three games, only the second time that has happened in NBA Finals history.
What is the betting pick for Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4?
Our pick is the Knicks -1.5 (-118 at BetMGM) as a standard play. New York lost Game 3 by just four points despite San Antonio’s 9-of-11 start and a 24-8 second-half free-throw gap, and Karl-Anthony Towns (11 points on Monday) is the obvious bounce-back piece at home. Odds are subject to change before tip.
Is Jalen Brunson playing in Game 4 of the NBA Finals?
Yes, Brunson is expected to play. He has managed knee discomfort since a scare in Game 1 but has not missed a game in this series, and he scored 32 points in Game 3. Check the final injury report close to tip-off for any late changes.
