Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Game 4 Prediction (5/26/2026)
The pick for Game 4 of the Western Conference Final is the Vegas Golden Knights moneyline at -105 on DraftKings — a Standard Play in a closeout home spot where Carter Hart is at .942 in the series, Colorado’s two best forwards exited Game 3 hurt, and the market has the game priced as essentially pickem. Puck drop is Tuesday, May 26, at 9:00 PM ET (6:00 PM PT) from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on ESPN.
Vegas leads the best-of-7 series 3-0 and can sweep its way into the Stanley Cup Final tonight. Colorado has the desperation that comes with a season on the brink, but it is bringing a banged-up MacKinnon, a banged-up Nichushkin, and a less-than-100% Makar into a building where Vegas is 4-0 this postseason.
T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas, NV · ESPN
Matchup Overview
Colorado is one loss from elimination after a Game 3 collapse that has now defined the series. The Avalanche jumped Vegas for three first-period goals on Sunday — Gabriel Landeskog on a delayed penalty, Nazem Kadri off a stretch pass, and Jack Drury on a shorthanded breakaway — and then watched the Golden Knights answer with five unanswered to win 5-3. Mark Stone scored 19 seconds into the second period in his first game back from injury and Tomas Hertl had the game-winner at 8:21 of the third.
The injury list is the part that makes Game 4 different from Games 1 and 2. Cale Makar returned for Game 3 and skated 27:14, but he was working back from an upper-body injury and is not 100%. Nathan MacKinnon blocked a Shea Theodore slap shot with 7:54 left in the second period of Game 3, came back for the third on a right knee that visibly limited him, and is officially a game-time decision. Valeri Nichushkin exited late in the second with a lower-body injury and finished with just 8:34 of ice time. Head coach Jared Bednar would not commit on either forward Monday: “It could be tomorrow morning before we know, it could be game time before we know.”
Vegas, by contrast, just got healthier. Stone is back. Cole Smith took a hard hit late in Game 3 but head coach John Tortorella confirmed “no concern” for Game 4. Carter Hart has started all 14 Vegas playoff games and is 11-3 — and through three games of this Western Conference Final he has posted a .942 save percentage and saved 4.57 goals above expected, per modeled aggregations from Covers. That is the dominant storyline of the series.
Odds & Line Analysis
The current line on DraftKings is Colorado -120 / Vegas -105 on the moneyline, with the puck line at Colorado -1.5 (+210) / Vegas +1.5 (-258) and the total set at 6.5 (Over +105 / Under -125). That is essentially a pickem — and that’s the part that matters.
That is a meaningful move from where Vegas opened Game 3, when the Knights were +124 underdogs in their own building. The market has now seen Hart steal a series, watched Vegas erase a three-goal deficit at home, and adjusted. But it has not adjusted enough. Colorado was a -148 road favorite for Game 3 with Makar OUT and Vegas’s captain still on the shelf; tonight, with MacKinnon and Nichushkin questionable and Stone back, the Avalanche are still being priced as the slight chalk.
Public money is leaning the other way — Vegas is taking 56% of moneyline tickets — and the value lives on the Vegas side of the same number. Be sure to check the top online sportsbooks regularly as the odds can change up to game time.
Key Factors
The case for Vegas is built on three load-bearing edges: a goalie playing at a level that has not been sustainable for Colorado to solve, a banged-up Avalanche top six that lost two starters mid-Game 3, and a home rink where the Golden Knights have not lost in this postseason. Each shows up on the ice.
Carter Hart’s .942 SV% and +4.57 goals saved above expected through three games are not normal numbers, especially against an Avalanche team that finished the regular season at the top of the West in goals-for. After Colorado put three on him on the first 12 shots in Game 3, Hart stopped 23 of the next 23. Scott Wedgewood is going the other way: .877 SV% and -1.51 GSAx in the series. That goalie gap is what is driving the score sheet.
MacKinnon (right knee, blocked shot) is a game-time decision and was visibly limited in his Game 3 third-period shifts. Nichushkin (lower body) is also officially questionable. Bednar himself framed the math: “We’d take a limited MacKinnon down 3-0.” Makar is back from his upper-body issue but multiple outlets describe him as operating below 100%. The Avalanche have scored just four 5-on-5 goals across the three WCF games at full strength. A more compromised lineup will not fix that.
The Golden Knights swept their home games in the Anaheim series and now own Game 3 of this series after the 5-3 comeback. Mark Stone returned Sunday in his first game since the opener of the Anaheim series, scored a power-play goal 19 seconds into the second to swing the momentum, and added the primary assist on Hertl’s game-winner. Vegas is now closer to its full top-of-roster look than at any point in this series, in a closeout game, on home ice, against an opponent missing pieces.
The Pick
Take the Vegas Golden Knights moneyline at -105. This is a Standard Play, not a Best Bet — closeout games carry real variance, Colorado’s desperation is a live factor, and there is a non-zero scenario where MacKinnon plays through the knee and finds a fourth gear. But you do not pay -105 in a series your team has dominated, with a goalie running .942, against a top six that lost two starters mid-game two nights ago.
The Under 6.5 at -125 has similar statistical support given Hart’s form and Colorado’s 5-on-5 scoring drought, but the closeout dynamic — empty-net possibilities late, desperation pressing — adds total variance the moneyline isn’t paying for. Stick with Vegas straight up.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Still have questions before puck drop? Below we’ve answered some of the most common ones surrounding Game 4 of the Western Conference Final, from start time and current odds to the latest injury updates on Nathan MacKinnon and the goaltending matchup at T-Mobile Arena. Use this as a quick-reference guide before locking in your bet on Avalanche vs. Golden Knights.
What time does Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Game 4 start on May 26, 2026?
Game 4 of the Western Conference Final is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET (6:00 PM PT) on Tuesday, May 26, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The broadcast is on ESPN in the United States and on Sportsnet, CBC, and TVA Sports in Canada.
Is Nathan MacKinnon playing in Game 4?
MacKinnon is officially a game-time decision. He blocked a Shea Theodore slap shot in the second period of Game 3 and suffered a right-knee injury, returned for limited third-period shifts, and was not given clearance Monday by head coach Jared Bednar. Watch the morning skate and pregame availability for a final word.
What are the current odds for Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Game 4?
As of writing, DraftKings has Colorado at -120 on the moneyline and Vegas at -105, with the puck line at Colorado -1.5 (+210) / Vegas +1.5 (-258) and the total at 6.5 (Over +105 / Under -125). Lines are subject to change before puck drop.
Can Colorado come back from down 3-0 in the series?
Only four teams in NHL history have rallied from a 0-3 deficit to win a best-of-7 series, out of roughly 200 such situations. It is possible but very rare, and Colorado will need to do it without full health from MacKinnon, Nichushkin, and Makar.
Who is starting in net for Vegas in Game 4?
Carter Hart is expected to start for the Golden Knights. Hart has started all 14 of Vegas’s playoff games and is 11-3 with a .942 save percentage across the three games of the Western Conference Final. Adin Hill has not seen the crease this postseason.
