Wild vs. Avalanche Game 5 Prediction (5/13/2026): Pick, Odds & Best Bet
The Colorado Avalanche are -205 favorites at DraftKings to clinch their Western Conference Second Round series against the Minnesota Wild in Game 5 on Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at Ball Arena, with the puck line at COL -1.5 (+120) and the total set at 6.5. Our pick is Minnesota +1.5 (-142) — Colorado has won all three series games by exactly three goals, which is the puck-line breakeven cliff, and clinching at home is a spot the Avalanche have not delivered in nearly 20 years.
Colorado leads the best-of-seven series 3-1 after a 5-2 Game 4 win in St. Paul on Monday. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 19 of 21 to give the Avs a comfortable closeout setup back on home ice, where they swept Los Angeles in Round 1 and where they have outshot Minnesota 136-113 across this series. The Wild have to win two of three with no Joel Eriksson Ek and no Jonas Brodin, both of whom stayed in Minnesota and did not travel for Game 5. The setup looks lopsided. The puck line says it almost is — but not quite.
Ball Arena, Denver · TNT / truTV / HBO Max
Matchup Overview
This is a closeout night for the Presidents’ Trophy winner against a banged-up Central Division rival. Colorado finished the regular season 121 points to Minnesota’s 104, swept the LA Kings in Round 1, and has gone 7-1 in the postseason behind a goal-by-committee offense that is averaging 5.0 goals per game in this series. The Wild beat Dallas in six in Round 1 but have been chasing since Game 1 of this round, when the Avalanche put up nine in a 9-6 track meet.
The injury sheet is the headline. Joel Eriksson Ek has been out since Game 6 of the Dallas series with a lower-body injury and is missing his fifth straight game. Jonas Brodin has been out since Game 5 of Round 1 — same injury type — and is missing his sixth straight. Neither traveled with the Wild to Denver, which locks them out for tonight and complicates everything from John Hynes’ line matchups to the penalty kill. Colorado has its own bumps — Artturi Lehkonen and Sam Malinski are listed day-to-day with upper-body injuries — but neither has the same weight as Minnesota’s losses.
Goaltending is the under-the-radar storyline. Jared Bednar pulled Scott Wedgewood mid-Game 3 after Minnesota built a 5-1 lead and went to Mackenzie Blackwood for Game 4. Blackwood delivered (19/21, win) and is the expected starter again. Filip Gustavsson goes for Minnesota with Jesper Wallstedt as the backup. The series shot totals — Colorado outshooting Minnesota 136-113 — paint Gustavsson as having to be the better goalie tonight if the Wild want to push this back to St. Paul.
Odds & Line Analysis
The Avalanche moneyline is sitting in the -190 to -205 corridor across the major books. DraftKings has the steepest number at -205 with Minnesota +170; Covers shows -190 / +160 and other shops are in between. The puck line is where the more interesting price lives: Colorado -1.5 at +120 and Minnesota +1.5 at -142 on the DraftKings sheet. The total opened at 6.5 and is sitting there now with a slight lean to the under (-118).
That puck-line price is the whole game. Every Colorado win in this series — Game 1 (9-6), Game 2 (5-2), and Game 4 (5-2) — has been by exactly three goals. The +1.5 cashes on a two-goal Colorado win and pushes-or-cashes on a three-goal margin depending on book treatment, and books are not in the business of giving away pure value, which is why the Wild +1.5 number sits at -142 rather than something friendlier. The line is honest. The question is whether the closeout-game home-ice dynamic compresses that margin or stretches it.
Key Factors
Three forces shape this pick: Colorado’s struggles to close out series at home, the Wild’s puck-line pattern through four games, and Minnesota’s injury-driven ceiling cap. The first two argue for a Wild lean. The third is the reason this is a Standard Play and not a Strong Play.
The Avalanche have not eliminated an opponent on home ice in nearly two decades. The last time it happened was the 2008 first round — against this same Minnesota franchise. The 2022 Cup run, the 2021 division title run, the recent first-round series — Colorado has either been the lower seed or has closed on the road. Game 5 at home in the clinching spot is not a position this franchise has historically owned.
Every Avalanche win this series has been by exactly three goals — 9-6, 5-2, and 5-2. That is the puck-line cliff. If you offered me $100 that Colorado would win by four-plus tonight, I would want a serious discount, because nothing in the pattern of these four games suggests Bednar’s club has been able to put a fourth goal of separation on the board. They have led, they have answered, they have closed — but they have not buried.
The honest counter to the puck-line angle is that Minnesota is missing two of its most important defensive players. Eriksson Ek is a top-six center and a primary penalty-kill option; Brodin is a top-pair left defenseman. The Wild have played four games without them and are 1-3 in those games. The injuries do not turn Minnesota into a different team — they shave off the top of the ceiling and lean the road on Gustavsson and Kirill Kaprizov to carry every shift.
The regular-season head-to-head this year was 2-2, with neither team able to separate at five-on-five. Colorado controlled possession (about 55-45 in shot attempts) but Gustavsson held games close. That pattern has carried into the series: the Avs control the run of play, score in bunches when their depth lines hit a stretch, but never quite slip the leash on the scoreboard. The third goal of margin is where Colorado lives. The fourth is where Minnesota has held the line.
The Pick
Take Minnesota +1.5 (-142) at DraftKings. This is a Standard Play — not a max-confidence bet, and not a moneyline upset call. The Wild cash this number in two of the three plausible outcomes: they win outright and force Game 6 in St. Paul on Friday, or Colorado wins by two goals or fewer in a managed closeout. The losing scenario is Colorado winning by three-plus, which is consistent with the series pattern and is the genuine risk priced into the -142. With the Avalanche carrying a home-clinching history that has not delivered in 18 years and a series pattern that has stalled at exactly three goals of margin in every win, the puck line is the cleaner expression of value than chasing Minnesota’s +170 moneyline.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Below are the most common questions readers have asked about tonight’s matchup, the puck-line pick, and the series state heading into Game 5. For series context, you can also revisit our Game 4 pick, and for full series box scores, the ESPN matchup page is the cleanest reference.
What time is Wild vs. Avalanche Game 5 on May 13, 2026?
Puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at Ball Arena in Denver. The game broadcasts on TNT and truTV, with a streaming simulcast on HBO Max.
Who is favored in Game 5 between the Wild and Avalanche?
Colorado is the home favorite. DraftKings has the Avalanche at -205 on the moneyline with Minnesota at +170. The puck line is Colorado -1.5 (+120) and Minnesota +1.5 (-142), and the total is set at 6.5 goals. Colorado leads the series 3-1 and can clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals with a win.
Are Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin playing for the Wild tonight?
No. Both Eriksson Ek and Brodin are out for Game 5, and both stayed home in Minnesota rather than traveling to Denver. Eriksson Ek is dealing with a lower-body injury from Game 6 of the first round and is missing his fifth straight game. Brodin has been out since Game 5 of the first round with his own lower-body issue and is missing his sixth straight.
What is the over/under for Wild vs. Avalanche Game 5?
The total is 6.5 goals at DraftKings, priced at Over -102 and Under -118. The series has gone over 6.5 in two of four games (Game 1 ended 9-6 and Game 4 ended 5-2 for seven goals exactly), so the books are leaning toward the under at slightly juiced pricing.
What happens if the Wild win Game 5?
A Minnesota win extends the series to a Game 6 in St. Paul on Friday, May 15, at Xcel Energy Center. If the Wild also win Game 6, a Game 7 would be played in Denver on Sunday, May 17. Colorado has not closed out a playoff series at home in nearly 20 years, with the last instance coming in the 2008 first round against this same Minnesota franchise.
