Knicks vs 76ers Prediction (5/10/2026): Game 4 Pick, Odds & Total Analysis
The pick for Knicks vs. 76ers Game 4 on Sunday, May 10 is Under 212.5 (-110) at BetMGM, with tip-off set for 3:30 PM ET on ABC at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia. New York comes in up 3-0 in the East semifinals, riding two straight defensive clinics that have held Philly to 18 and 12 points in fourth quarters. The total has cashed under in back-to-back games, and a road closeout against a beat-up Joel Embiid is the right spot to ride that trend one more time.
Philadelphia is staring at history nobody wants. No NBA team has ever come back from 0-3, and the Knicks are one win away from their first best-of-seven sweep since 1999. Embiid is listed probable with a hip issue, Tyrese Maxey is playing with a splint on his finger, and Jalen Brunson has put up 35, 26, and 33 points across the three Knicks wins. The line — NYK -1.5 — tells you the market still expects a competitive game. The under is where the value lives.
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Matchup Overview
This is Game 4 of an Eastern Conference semifinal that has gone almost entirely the Knicks’ way. New York opened the series with a 137-98 demolition without Embiid, then ground out a 108-102 Game 2 win behind 26 from Brunson, then shut Philadelphia’s repeated rallies down in a 108-94 Game 3 on the road. The 76ers have led for stretches in two of those three games and still find themselves on the brink because the Knicks have closed every meaningful possession.
The injury picture frames the spot. OG Anunoby is questionable with a right hamstring strain after missing Game 3 — Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet absorbed his minutes and the Knicks defense actually got stiffer. Embiid played Game 3 after sitting Game 1 with right hip soreness and is officially probable for Game 4, but he was visibly compromised on Friday and finished with limited paint touches. Maxey is fighting through a splinted right index finger that’s affected his shooting touch. Philly is not at full strength, and the Knicks know it.
Odds & Line Analysis
BetMGM has New York as a 1.5-point road favorite at -122 on the moneyline, with the total set at 212.5. FanDuel is a half-point higher at 213.5, and ESPN’s BET odds are sitting on 212.5 as well — that half-point gap is shop-around territory if you want the under. The spread movement has been minimal: the line opened around Knicks -1.5 and hasn’t moved a tick despite New York being heavy favorites in the series price.
The fact that this number didn’t crash to NY -4 or -5 tells you the market is pricing in classic letdown risk on a closeout road game, plus the home-crowd boost a desperate Sixers team should generate. That makes the spread a coin flip in my book. The total is the cleaner angle, and if you want a refresher on how totals play differently in the postseason than the regular season, our sports betting guide breaks down the math. The series has produced totals of 235, 210, and 202 — a clear downward trajectory as the games have gotten more grinding and more defensive.
Key Factors
Three things are pushing me to the under: the Knicks’ fourth-quarter defense has been suffocating, Embiid’s hip is limiting Philadelphia’s most efficient half-court option, and closeout games at this stage of the playoffs almost always bleed pace. Each one would be worth a look on its own. Stacked, they’re hard to ignore.
New York held Philadelphia to 12 points in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and 18 points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 after the Sixers had cut the lead to four with under nine minutes left. Tom Thibodeau’s group is closing games like a team that’s playing for something bigger than the East finals — and that’s the kind of defensive pressure that crushes a total in late-game possessions.
Embiid is officially probable, but probable in May with a hip issue is not the same as healthy. When he played Game 3, he wasn’t generating his usual paint pressure, and Philadelphia’s offense slipped to 94 points on the board with him available. A diminished Embiid forces Maxey and Philly’s perimeter scorers into more isolation creation against a Knicks defense that has been waiting for exactly that.
Both sides have a reason to slow this down. Philly is going to milk possessions trying to keep the game close and stay in their sets. New York is going to lean into the half-court defense that’s gotten them here. The under has cashed in two straight games and four of seven head-to-head meetings between these teams this season per FanDuel research, and that pattern lines up with how a desperate home team typically plays an elimination game.
The Pick
Take the Under 212.5 at -110. The Knicks defense is closing on Philly with a vise grip, Embiid is playing at less than full capacity, and the last two games of this series have finished at 210 and 202. Philly will fight, the home crowd will get loud, and Game 4 should be played in the mid-90s on both sides — which lands this number well under the line. If you want spread exposure, Knicks -1.5 is fine as a side play, but the defensive matchup edge is on the total.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Got questions before locking in your Game 4 bet? Below we’ve answered some of the most common things bettors are asking about Sunday’s Knicks vs. 76ers matchup — from the latest injury updates and key betting trends to what a potential sweep would mean for the rest of the postseason. Use these quick-hit answers to sharpen your angle before tip-off at 3:30 PM ET.
What time do the Knicks and 76ers play on May 10, 2026?
Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals tips off at 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, May 10 at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia. The game airs nationally on ABC.
What is the spread and total for Knicks vs. 76ers Game 4?
The Knicks are 1.5-point road favorites at BetMGM with the moneyline at NYK -122 and PHI +102. The total is set at 212.5 points. FanDuel has the same spread with a slightly higher total of 213.5. Odds are subject to change before tip-off.
Is Joel Embiid playing in Game 4?
Joel Embiid is officially listed as probable for Game 4 with right hip soreness. He missed Game 1 with the same injury, returned for Game 3, and is expected to suit up on Sunday — though he was visibly limited in his Game 3 minutes.
Has any NBA team ever come back from a 0-3 series deficit?
No. In NBA history, no team has ever recovered from an 0-3 playoff series hole. Of the 161 teams to face that deficit, only four have even forced a Game 7 — and all four lost. The Knicks are looking to close out their first best-of-seven sweep since 1999.
What is the best bet for Knicks vs. 76ers Game 4?
Our pick is Under 212.5 at -110. New York has held Philadelphia to 12 and 18 points in the fourth quarters of Games 2 and 3, the last two games of the series have totaled 210 and 202, and Embiid’s hip injury caps Philly’s offensive ceiling. The under is the cleaner side of this number.
