Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal Prediction (April 25th, 2026)
UFC Fight Night 274 promises to be a banger, as former champion Aljamain Sterling and rising star Youssef Zalal face off at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday.
This is a good one, as we get a nice contrast of fighting styles with Sterling focusing on takedowns and wrestling, while Zalal has superior footwork and striking to counter.
FanDuel is calling this one close to the chest, as the younger Zalal is a mild -134 betting favorite. One could argue the line should be even thicker. That sounds like blasphemy due to Sterling’s wrestling prowess and overall career productivity, but it might not be.
So, is Zalal a smash bet on his moneyline? Are we getting insane value with Sterling at +114, or is there a better bet to target in this fight? I’ll answer those questions and more as I analyze the latest odds, suggest my top picks, and wrap things up with a final Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
- When: Saturday, April 25 2026
- Where: Meta APEX, Las Vegas United States
- Schedule:Main Card – 8:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal odds over at FanDuel:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Aljamain Sterling | +114 |
Youssef Zalal | -134 |
Fight to Go the Distance | Yes (-160) | No (+126) |
Method of Victory | KO/TKO (+340) | Submission (+320) | Points (-175) |
What the Odds Tell Us
The latest Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal odds suggest the younger Zalal will edge out the veteran and get the win. The pricing also indicates this will be a close fight and is razor-thin, making it a virtual pick’em.
The odds also suggest this fight will go the full five rounds. There isn’t much of a lean if it ends early, as both a KO and submission share the same odds.
If you want to go one step further, the favored exact outcome has Zalal at +165 to win via Decision, while the favored exact finish prop has Zalal at +340 to win via knockout.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Aljamain Sterling
The 36-year-old Sterling is still a dominant wrestler who averages 2.4 takedowns per fight and should look to be aggressive in his plight to work the fight to the ground. His takedown accuracy isn’t great, and he has slowed down as a finisher; however, with his last early win coming back in 2022.
Sterling has quite the strong resume, as he’s coming off a Decision win over Brian Ortega and has taken down big names like Petr Yan (twice), Cory Sandhagen, T.J. Dillashaw, Henry Cejudo, and Calvin Kattar.
His recent form could certainly be called into question, as Sterling did not dominate a version of Ortega that should be feared by anyone, while he lost to Movsar Evloev and got knocked out by Sean O’Malley. That makes him just 2-2 over his last four fights, and he could be on his last legs in terms of title contention as he pushes 37.
For Sterling, this fight comes down to wrestling. Can he get the fight to the ground, avoid Zalal’s sneaky submission game, and dominate with control and pacing? If so, he has the edge and could be an elite value bet.
Youssef Zalal
The 29-year-old Zalal has a lot going for him in this spot. He’s favored partially due to youth – he’s seven years younger than Sterling – but he’s also been dazzling the UFC since his return.
Zalal struggled the first time around, but he’s one of two men that took Ilia Topuria the distance. He clearly learned from his early mistakes, as he went and dominated the Sparta Combat League, and he’s gone 5-0 with four finishes since getting back into the Octagon.
More specifically, Zalal has improved his wrestling and takedown defense, while he’s also ramped up his submission game. He was going to have the advantage in terms of striking in this matchup, but his versatile submission game is what really allows him to create distance in this matchup.
Zalal isn’t just beating nobodies, either. He submitted a dangerous striker in Josh Emmett last time out, he out-dueled Calvin Kattar the fight before that, and he made the previous four guys he ran into all tap.
Tale of the Tape
| Aljamain Sterling | Youssef Zalal | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 25-5 | 18-5 |
Age | 36 | 29 |
Height | 5’7” | 5’10” |
Reach | 71” | 72” |
Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
Style | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Freestyle |
Sterling is the older fighter, but he has more overall experience and has racked up a ton of wins. He’s proven over time that he can win early with a hard lean into submissions, but for the most part he dominates with wrestling and controls fights en route to Decision wins.
Zalal is looking for the kill more often than not. He’s much younger and the better athlete with fantastic footwork. He also will tower over Sterling with a three-inch height advantage, and he also has a mild edge in terms of reach.
Zalal has the striking edge as well, while his switch-fighting stance can make him difficult to size up, as he can approach Sterling from different angles to keep him off kilter.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Let’s take a close look at the key matchup angles that could decide this fight:
- Wrestling Control vs. Takedown Defense: One harsh reality is that Zalal really hasn’t been tested by this kind of fighter – especially of this caliber – very much. His takedown defense is solid, but will it hold up over five rounds against a surgical wrestler like Sterling? That’s the key to the fight.
- Striking Efficiency: Zalal is the better striker; he’s going to be quicker, more fluid, and offer better footwork. If the fight stays on the feet, he has a clear edge, and he should be able to wear Sterling down to the point of accumulative damage or even a KO. A knockout probably isn’t the most likely outcome, though; Zalal would probably just help his case to win by points.
- Reversals & Scrambles: Zalal’s biggest strength right now is his submission game and his knack for winning scrambles. The fact that Sterling is so aggressive with takedowns could play right into Zalal’s game plan, and he could defend a takedown, force a scramble, and end up behind Sterling for a rear-naked choke.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal bets:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Youssef Zalal ML (-134) | Zalal has looked really good lately; he’s the far younger fighter, and he’s the better striker. When you also factor in his submission game, I think he offers more paths to victory. | 7/10 |
Method of Victory – Submission (+320) | These guys have 18 submissions between them. You can go the extra mile and bet on Zalal (+1000) to force the tap out, but I prefer this as a mild hedge and companion bet. | 7/10 |
The Sterling vs. Zalal betting market reflects youth vs experience in a tightly lined matchup. Compare updated odds at our trusted UFC betting apps.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
MMA betting is inherently high variance, so lot’s can go wrong even when the research is sound. Here’s why our Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal picks could miss the mark:
- Wrestling Prowess: The biggest issue by far is the fact that Sterling is more experienced and is the more advanced wrestler. If he establishes control, he can tire Zalal out or simply end up finishing him on the ground.
- Never Submitted: A clear roadblock to at least one of my bets – and perhaps both – is that Sterling is very crafty and has managed to avoid a submission across 30 professional MMA bouts.
The Bottom Line: Zalal Gets Sterling to Tap Out, Establishes Himself as Title Contender
Some think Zalal is on the title contention ladder already, but he needs to win this bout to really give himself that shot. I think he can do it, and as I mentioned, he simply has more paths to getting it done.
If the fight stays on the ground, Zalal’s footwork, striking, and athleticism win the day. Provided he’s not randomly passive or Sterling surprises with a KO, he’d win on points, or he’d get a finish.
The only real hiccup for my Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal prediction is if the older fighter scores a lot of takedowns and keeps himself out of trouble. That would entail either just wrestling on the ground for most of the fight or simply avoiding any traps or prolonged striking sessions.
There is risk due to that, but the other factor is Zalal’s takedown defense has gotten better, and this is also a guy who has never been finished. He’s tough as nails, and he also has the ability to counter takedowns, and if he gets to Sterling’s back, it’s game over.
Final Prediction Summary
- Method of Victory – Submission +320 |Confidence: 7/10
- Fight Winner – Youssef Zalal -134 | Confidence: 7/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – No +126 | Confidence: 7/10
