New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks Game 3 Prediction (April 23rd, 2026)
The Atlanta Hawks shocked the NBA world by stealing game two in their first-round series against the New York Knicks. With the series tied at 1-1, the Knicks are now facing serious pressure as the series pivots to Atlanta.
Due to where the game is being played, the Knicks actually enter this one as a slight underdog. DraftKings has New York penciled in as 1.5-point underdogs, while a loss here could completely derail a series many expected the Knicks to run away with.
Atlanta doesn’t appear content to simply be here, and they could use their home crowd to help them gain an advantage. Are they about to win game three and flip this series on its side, or are bettors looking at elite betting value in regards to where the Knicks prices are?
I’ll help you gauge the best bets as I scan the odds en route to a final Knicks vs. Hawks game 3 prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: New York Knicks (1-1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (1-1)
- Date & Time: Thursday, April 23rd, 2026, at 6:00 pm (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA
- How to Watch: Prime Video
Recent Performance & Trends
New York Knicks
The Knicks had a 1-0 series lead and let game two slip away. It’s tough to say they played poorly, as they still held the Hawks to 107 points and 30% shooting from deep, but a loss is still a loss.
If anything, perhaps New York can learn the importance of hitting their free throws. They shot just 63% from the charity stripe in a one-point loss, while the Hawks shot 78% from the free-throw line. Atlanta also shot better from the floor, committed three fewer turnovers, and was more effective in transition.
But the Knicks were not terrible overall, and they still look like the better team in this matchup. Things could get dicey with game three in Atlanta, however, as the Knicks went just 22-19 on the road during the regular season.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have played the Knicks decently so far in this series, but stealing a win is always better than simply hanging around. That game two win may cement the Hawks as a problem, and now they can go home and try to get ahead of this thing.
C.J. McCollum is the perceived “Knicks Killer” after torching the Nets en route to 32 points, but the scary part about Atlanta is they collectively have yet to really erupt from long range.
Atlanta won game two through superior efficiency and avoiding as many mistakes as the Knicks had, and returning home (24-17 at home) may allow them to widen the gap even further.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
This series is tied 1-1 through two games, while the regular season series was also tight, with the Knicks going 2-1 in three meetings. All of those games went down to the wire, with Atlanta losing by a combined six points in their two defeats.
We’ve seen much of the same so far in their playoff series, as the Hawks battle back to try to eat into New York’s all-time playoff advantage. These two sides have now faced off 16 times in postseason play, with the Knicks holding a 10-6 advantage.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Knicks run their offense through Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, who both can erupt for 30+ points with little notice. Brunson is the key cog offensively, as he can torch teams in isolation, whether he’s hitting from deep or working his way inside.
Towns tends to be at his best on the perimeter, but he has the size and skill-set to also dominate down low. While the Knicks turn to their elite duo the most, they also have quality depth with Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mikel Bridges all chipping in as needed.
Collectively, the Knicks rank 10th in scoring (116.5 points per game) and are lethal (4th) from long range. New York can hurt you in a number of ways, while they also take incredibly good care of the ball, committing just 12.8 turnovers per game (5th).
The Hawks are built around emerging star forward Jalen Johnson, who broke out this year with 22.5 points per game and a very well-rounded attack. He can hurt defenses from long range, but is at his best when he’s attacking the paint.
Johnson isn’t alone, as Nickeil Alexander-Walker has enjoyed a breakout campaign of his own, and veteran CJ McCollum helps anchor a deadly perimeter offense that ranks 6th in three-point makes per game.
Onyeka Okongwu holds down the fort inside, giving the Hawks a solid rebounder and a shot-blocking presence (1.1 blocks per game).
Overall, the Hawks are a fast-paced group that likes to launch from long range and convert (5th) at a rapid rate despite their heavy volume.
As noted, the Hawks play very fast, ranking 4th in pace of play with 104.2 possessions per game. They haven’t been able to dictate the pace to this point in this series, but that could change in game three.
New York, conversely, prefers to operate at a slower place and execute their half court offense. The Knicks rank 27th in pace with just 99.4 possessions per contest.
Defensively, New York is the tougher team. They are very good down low with KAT and Mitch Robinson making life difficult in the paint, while they rank 7th in defensive efficiency and only allow 110 points per game (5th).
Atlanta has improved on defense, and it’s quite arguable they get knocked more than they should due to their pace on offense. They’re actually not far behind the Knicks in terms of defensive efficiency (10th).
That said, the Hawks are far from elite by the numbers on defense, ranking in the middle of the league or worse in several key categories.
- Hawks perimeter offense vs. Knicks perimeter defense: This is the key to the game, as the Hawks love to shoot from deep and are quite good at it. New York’s Achilles heel on defense is their three-point defense, so the Hawks can gain the upper hand if they can hit at a solid rate from long range in game three.
- KAT vs. Hawks interior defense: Towns was great in game one, and for a half, he seemed to be in control last game, too. He should be able to have his way inside against this Hawks defense, but he has to stay locked in and avoid fading away in the second half this time around.
- New York is 45-40 against the spread this year.
- New York is 9-8 ATS as the underdog.
- Atlanta is 45-39 against the spread this year
- Atlanta is 29-29 ATS as the favorite.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Knicks | +1.5 (-118) | -110 | Over 216.5 (-108) |
Hawks | -1.5 (-102) | -110 | Under 216.5 (-112) |
The Knicks enter game three as very mild underdogs due to this game being on the road. The fact that Atlanta won game two also has something to do with the pricing, but the odds play more into New York’s documented road struggles
The game total is modest, as it balances New York’s defense and slower pace with Atlanta’s fast pace and home-court edge.
From a Bettor’s Lens
We’re getting elite betting value everywhere you look, so it all comes down to who you think will win this game. I tend to lean toward the home team in terms of setting the tempo of a game, so immediately, I like the chances of this game hitting the Over.
While the Hawks should be able to dictate the pace to a degree, the Knicks are still the team with more defensive bite. They also can excel in this matchup and generate plenty of offense, so I lean toward the Knicks.
New York is the better team overall, so getting them at -110 in a virtual pick’em feels like a steal.
Situational Considerations
- Big man Jock Landale is listed as out for Thursday’s game.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Knicks ML (-110) | Atlanta will probably win one of these home games, but I don’t think they’ll win two straight to take a 2-1 series lead. New York’s defense and the favorable matchup make them the more compelling value bet. | 7/10 |
Over 218.5 (-108) | New York has dictated the pace so far in this series, but with things shifting to ATL I do like the Hawks to push the pace more. We should get a good amount of points in a shootout. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Karl-Anthony Towns to Score 21+ Points (-105) | KAT was wrecking initially in game two and then went ice cold. With New York’s back up against the wall – and the matchup so favorable on paper – look for him to be more aggressive and play a huge hand in a big road win. | 7/10 |
The Knicks vs. Hawks Game 3 betting market reflects Atlanta’s home-court edge despite New York’s overall advantage. Compare line movement at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: New York Knicks 120, Atlanta Hawks 117
This is definitely a toss-up in regards to the fact that not much separates these teams, and now the series has shifted to Atlanta. The Hawks know they can hang with (and even beat) the Knicks, and now that can dictate the pace more on their home floor.
New York is stronger defensively and has way more playoff experience, however. The Knicks shot horribly at the free-throw line to allow game two to get away from them, so I expect a much more concerted effort from them across the board.
It will have to find a way to mesh itself within a faster-paced environment, but my main Knicks vs. Hawks prediction for game three is that New York wins.
We can also target the Over and KAT’s prop for points as secondary or companion wagers, but New York at -110 is the number one pick to hammer for this game.
