Best MLB Home Run Prop Picks Today – Wednesday’s Top HR Props (4/22/2026)

Looking for the top MLB home run picks today? I’ve searched high and low for some of the best potential long ball bets that are actually worth attacking.

Home run prop picks are not always treated equally, as some are much likelier than others. That’s why I break them up into three separate categories – safe, value, and longshot – to give you one of the top MLB HR picks today, but also tap into some extra betting value.

Even the best bats in the majors still miss the mark, so for each section, I’ll offer a pivot that matches the same criteria.

Want to win big by picking who will hit a home run on Wednesday? If you need some help doing so, I’ve got your back, as I’ve done the research and highlighted the best bets to do so using the latest odds from DraftKings. Let’s find some home runs!

Quick MLB HR Picks for Friday

Here’s a quick snapshot of the top MLB home run picks I like today. Wednesday serves up a really nice player pool and enticing game environments, as we have the Padres in Coors, while several hard-hitting offenses are available to us in friendly spots.

The trick, as always, is narrowing down the field and deciding not only who is a good bet to go yard, but also returns compelling value for you, the bettor. I’d start with the three bats above, depending on what you’re seeking – safety, premium value, or upside – and then keep reading for further context and some pivot picks.

The Safest MLB Home Run Pick Today – Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400)

It’s always going to feel insane when you can get a quality hitter in a park like this at +400 odds. The crazy part is Tatis is beyond due to go yard, as he’s yet to hit a single homer on the year.

Tatis isn’t known just for raw power, but it’s definitely there. He plays half of the year in a park that suppresses it, yet he’s knocked 20+ homers into the stands in five of his six seasons in the majors – with 42 coming off his bat back in 2021.

The power can be there, and there’s simply no better place to bank on everything coming together for Tatis than Coors Field. Colorado’s ballpark is admittedly better for hits and scoring in general, but the park design and elevation still provides a bump to bats.

Admittedly, I am not the only one on this one, either.

Then there’s the matchup, as Tatis carries a sweltering .231 ISO against right-handed pitching. He also doesn’t miss the ball much (19% whiff rate) and knows how to work his way to the best pitch possible (15% walk rate).

None of that is going to be good for Rockies hurler Tomoyuki Sugano, who doesn’t miss bats at an elite rate and actually sees his K rate plummet by 6% against fellow righties this year. On top of that, he’s allowing a disgusting .297 ISO with a 60% hard hit rate to that side of the plate.

If ever there was a perfect setting for Tatis to launch his first home run of the 2026 MLB season, this was it.

Pivot Pick: Jackson Merrill (+392)

Unlike Tatis, Merrill has actually homered already in 2026, so perhaps you’ll prefer his stability and proven power. He’s done so twice, and he carries similar odds, albeit a slightly less inviting price.

The odds are still welcoming enough, and he’s in the same exact situation, plus he offers an even better ISO (.256) and walks half as much as his teammate. Sugao is an equal opportunity sad sack when it comes to power allowed this year, so we can attack from the left side with someone like Merrill and not bat an eye.

Monday’s Best Home Run Value Bet – Ryan O’Hearn (+630)

You need a better price if we’re going to jump from a safe MLB home run bet to one that provides extra value. I think we get that with Pittsburgh Pirates masher Ryan O’Hearn, who has impressed early with his new team with four homers already.

O’Hearn is doing more than flexing his power muscle, though, as he’s been ultra efficient with a .324 batting average (6th) and a .936 OPS (16th). He’s quietly enjoying a breakout season at age 32, and I don’t mind betting on it continuing on Wednesday.

Fellow Pirates like Brandon Lowe (+394) and O’Neil Cruz (+322) admittedly look like safer bets, and I am definitely interested in them as well, but O’Hearn clearly provides more betting value.

Not only have we seen him unleash his trademark power, but his .253 ISO, low 15% K rate, and 54% hard hit rate puts him in play to send one deep in virtually any setting. Provided he’s going up against a beatable righty, of course.

You can safely say that’s the case today, as he will be facing Jack Leiter, who is not missing righty bats at an elite rate, and is having power issues (.216 ISO, 39% fly ball rate) against that side of the plate this year.

Pivot Pick: Ozzie Albies (+720)

Want a second value MLB HR pick? Let’s go attack Zack Littell with some Atlanta Braves lefties. I will definitely say that Matt Olsen (+320) stands out even more, but in the name of value, I really don’t mind doubling those odds (and then some) and taking a crack at Albies.

Albies doesn’t wield as heavy of a stick as Olsen, but he’s not that far behind, thanks to a .214 ISO. The best part? He strikes out far less than his teammate, and we can still use him to attack Littell, who has really struggled against lefties (.390 ISO, 61% hard hit rate) so far in 2026.

Longshot HR Pick for 4/22 – Chase Meidroth (+1060)

Does it feel good to bet on the Chicago White Sox in any regard? Not really. They’re also on the road and running into a solid southpaw in Eduardo Rodriguez.

Chase Field also only ranks 22nd in home run factor on the year. However, it does rank 2nd in scoring and 5th in hard hit rate. There’s also the fact that Meidroth’s odds to hit a homer are really inviting, and he has some numbers to back this pick up.

Meidroth has reasonable power (.163 ISO) versus lefties dating back to last year, plus he knows how to navigate the plate (16% walk rate), and he doesn’t strikeout at an alarming rate (16% K rate), either.

E-Rod isn’t an easy matchup, but if we ignore 2026 we can lean on his traditional splits historically, which has him offering up a .193 ISO to righties as recently as last year.

Meidroth is definitely a longshot, but as far as total fliers go, he’s a pretty good one.

Pivot Pick: Matt Chapman (+1040)

Is Matt Chapman actually an even better longshot pick to hit a home run? Perhaps. The problem here is he will be operating in an even worse park for homers, while Shohei Ohtani is listed as the Dodgers’ probable pitcher for tonight.

Not great! But hey, Chapman does hit righties well, as evidenced by his monstrous .210 ISO and .376 wOBA. He can strike out a good deal, but he’s patient at the plate, and we know from his history that he can unleash some power.

It’s a true longshot and it’s at worst even with Meidroth in terms of likelihood of hitting, but perhaps name recognition and raw power numbers could make him a more favorable pivot to some.

Strategy & Tips for Predicting MLB Home Runs

You have my top MLB HR picks for today, but how did I get there, and how can you better prepare yourself to make winning MLB home run picks?

To set yourself up for success, consider the following:

• Weather Impact – Attack games with warm weather with the wind blowing out.
• Exploit Bad Pitching – Target weak pitchers, arms that are not favored, or pitchers who have poor splits.
• Pay Attention to Splits – Beyond pitcher splits, make sure you research hitter stats like power numbers, strikeout rate, walk rate, fly ball rate, and more.
• Note the Park Factor – Ballparks can play a huge role in home runs, so make sure you know how many feet a ball needs to travel, how often home runs get hit, etc.

Betting on MLB Home Runs on Wednesday

Top MLB Home Run Pick for Today: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400)

I’m calling my shot in more ways than one. Not only am I listing Fernando Tatis Jr. as my top MLB home run prop pick today, but I’m obviously declaring this will be the scene of his first long ball of 2026.

Is it that crazy considering his talent and the park he’s hitting in? Not really. But what is crazy is the fact that you can take a stab at him at a low +400 price tag.

I still like every MLB home run pick listed here – as well as the pivots mentioned – but if I had to hunt down one MLB HR pick for Wednesday, it’d be Tatis to go yard.

Be sure to do your own research if you have the time, and make sure you factor in the above MLB home run betting tips before finalizing your bets. Good luck!