MLB Home Runs Picks Today – Friday’s Best HR Props (4/10/2026)

Friday brings a welcoming MLB schedule to the table, rife with alluring MLB HR bets. It’s always important to factor weather, pitching, and park impact before laying your bets, while it’s often good to be restrictive as well.

Predicting MLB home runs isn’t easy, so if you’re piecing together a parlay, make sure you cap it at 3-4 picks max. Targeting them as individual bets is preferred, but I totally understand the desire to tap into that extra upside.

The goal is to give you three different MLB home run picks today, eyeing a relatively “safe” play that stands out, securing some value, and then also taking a chance at an attractive longshot bet.

Each MLB HR bet stands on its own, or you can group them together. I’ll hit you with a quick snapshot of today’s MLB home run picks, and then dive into why I like each one.

Quick MLB HR Picks for Friday

Here’s my shortlist of MLB HR picks for Friday. I will go into greater detail for each pick, while I’ll also offer a pivot play if you want to attack the same situation, but perhaps not that specific batter.

MLB home run bets are never going to be locks, but all of these picks are vetted and look fantastic on paper. Now they just need to deliver!

“Safe” HR Pick for Friday – Kyle Schwarber (+274)

I like all the Philadelphia Phillies lefties on Friday. They are at home in a hitter’s haven, as Citizens Bank Park ranks 3rd for home runs so far in 2026. This has always been a great park for scoring in general, and it can allow plenty of power.

Schwarber is historically an all-or-nothing bat, but that’s really the kind of guy you want when the set up is pristine. It certainly looks good for Friday, as the park factor checks out and we’re also looking at solid weather (66 degrees, 8 MPH wind blowing into center field) and a winnable matchup against Michael Soroka.

Soroka is a solid real-life pitcher, but his K rate plummets by over 20% from right to left this year. The sample size is small, but if we look at his power offerings from 2025, he was giving up a .184 ISO to left-handed bats, as well as a 48% hard hit rate.

Soroka can induce ground balls pretty well, but doing that against Schwarber won’t be easy. He gets the ball in the air 37% of the time and hits it extremely hard (78% hard hit rate). That’s harder than anyone else on the Phillies by 20%, while he also paces Philly with a disgusting .320 ISO.

There’s always the risk of Soroka walking him, forcing ground balls, or simply exploiting his 27% strikeout rate. But as far as “safe” home run calls go, Schwarber undeniably leads the way on Friday.

Pivot Pick: Shohei Ohtani (+190)

The price drops, but this pick may even be safer. I’ll break it down further with another bet I like just the same, but if you want a relatively safe MLB HR bet and don’t mind losing some value, bet on Ohtani to launch one into the stands today.

Friday’s Best Home Run Value Bet – Freddie Freeman (+410)

You can bet on Ohtani to dong pretty much daily, but the price is more appealing with Freddie Freeman. Shockingly enough, they’re tied with three long balls on the year, and they are obviously benefiting from the same exact situation tonight.

First, Freeman has strong power numbers. He owns a .200 ISO against right-handed hurlers. He’ll be facing a young pitcher in Kumar Rocker that got slapped around (.203 ISO) by lefties last year, and it’s just really unlikely he navigates his way through this entire lineup multiple times without letting one get by him.

Rocker is a solid talent, but his .392 wOBA and 62% hard hit rate allowed to the left side of the plate isn’t great. The Dodgers can throw quite a few dangerous lefties at him, and if he does manage to get by Ohtani and Kyle Tucker (+360), then I tend to think Freeman will be the one to get him.

There’s also Max Muncy (+324), but when looking at the matchup, hitter numbers, and the pricing, Freeman grades out as the more efficient bat with more alluring betting odds.

Oh, and Dodger Stadium ranks #1 for homers this year, and the wind is blowing out to right field at 10 miles per hour. Yeah, sign me up for that.

Pivot Pick: Muncy or Tucker

It’s a good day to stack Dodgers, it appears! Every day is probably a good day to load up on Los Angeles bats, truly. But the matchup, weather, park factor, and splits all look good across the board.

Longshot HR Pick for 4/10 – Owen Caissie (+720)

You know it’s a longshot bet when it’s a guy from the Miami Marlins. But hey, the fish get a big park upgrade at Comerica Park, which, by the way, happens to rank 12th for power in 2026.

The sample size is admittedly tiny, but this park was 10th in overall park factor last year and still ranked 16th over the course of last season. Not amazing, but with the wind blowing out to center field at 9 miles per hour, I’m willing to take on some risk.

At these odds, any risk is baked into the pricing, while Owen Caissie has shown a penchant for the long ball early with two home runs on his resume already. A former 2nd round draft pick, Caissie displayed solid power numbers in the minors the last few years, cranking out 19+ long balls in each of the past three seasons.

It’s fair to wonder if it’d translate to the majors, but so far the answer is a resounding “yes”. Caissie provides a blistering .224 ISO so far, and while he whiffs a ton (34%!), he tends to get the ball in the air, doesn’t take many walks, and has a 15.6% barrel rate.

Translation: this dude is going to play for power, and it’s either going to end in a beautiful long ball into the stands, or seeing him whiffing his way into oblivion.

I’m good for the dice role at this price, plus he’s facing a guy in Keider Montero that is far from elite. He sports a weak 13% whiff rate against left-handed pitching dating back to last year, where he also gave up a .229 ISO and a 47% hard hit rate.

Everything looks good here, folks. The power, the splits, the park; it’s all set up for Caissie to return some pretty glorious value.

Pivot Pick: Liam Hicks (+1120)

Hicks is also a Marlins bat we could take a stab at. He projects a bit less reliably than Caissie, but he’s in the same appealing matchup, and his odds are even more alluring. His power numbers are weaker, but he already has three long balls on the season, so we know he can swing a heavy stick.

Tips for Predicting MLB Home Runs

You have my top MLB HR picks for Friday, but you should also have the ammunition and insight you need to go find some winning bets on your own.

To do that, consider the following:

• Lean into Weather – Take advantage of hot and humid games and/or contests with the wind aggressively blowing out. Conversely, avoid colder games with the wind blowing in.
• Attack Bad Pitching – Be aggressive in going after weak starting pitchers and poor bullpens, but make sure you’re also specifically targeting guys who get hit hard, give up bad power numbers, and also tend to allow fly balls.
• Pay Mind to Splits – Instead of picking MLB home runs blindly, make sure you’re dissecting pitcher and batter splits. Anyone can hit a homer in any setting, but we want the odds in our favor – as well as the numbers.
• Consider Park Factor – The park your hitters are playing in is huge. Some ballparks are good for scoring, but not necessarily for home runs. Others are simply bad for both, and then things like matchups and weather can make it worse. If the park factor is weak for home runs, it’s best to just avoid betting on home runs in that park.

Betting on MLB Home Runs on Friday

My Top Friday MLB HR Pick: Kyle Schwarber (+274)

You can look at safe plays, values, or longshots. And truth be told, there are a lot more MLB home run picks to consider. For example, I love Kyle Schwarber to go yard as the #1 MLB HR bet for Friday, but Bryce Harper is arguably just as good of a bet.

Everything points to a Schwarber long ball, but we know that every single aspect can go perfectly, and an all-or-nothing bat like that can still go 0-4. Harper is a great pivot, while all Philadelphia Phillies look welcoming if you’re hunting MLB home runs today.

That’s where I’d be starting any MLB home run parlays, but you can use my analysis of today’s MLB HR picks – as well as my general tips – to find even more winning picks. Good luck!