Who Will Be the #1 Pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Odds, Favorites & Predictions

Betting on the 2026 NBA Draft has never been better. That may sound like generic hyperbole, but it’s true, as DraftKings and other basketball betting apps are offering extremely tight odds for who will go first overall. Darryn Peterson is our top choice for the number one pick in the 2026 NBA Draft but let’s see how everyone else compares.

Sifting through the best prop bets is something for another day. Right now, at this moment, you can bet on who will be drafted first overall in the NBA Draft this year, and the two most likely options max out at -110.

In fact, there’s a third realistic pick, and their odds are an absurd +700.

Who gets chosen first in the 2026 NBA Draft is something that is still up in the air. March Madness hasn’t come and gone, so the top-shelf talent hasn’t had a chance to really leave their mark on the biggest stage.

But you know value when you see it. And right now, you can take advantage of a mispriced betting market. Let’s find out how as I break down the latest 2026 NBA Draft odds and come away with a final prediction for who will get picked first overall.

Latest 2026 NBA Draft Odds – Who Will Go 1st Overall?

The latest odds for the 1st pick in the 2026 NBA Draft remind us of what we probably already knew: this is at most a three-man race, and it’s more than likely down to two prospects.

If we’re being honest with ourselves, it’s probably one guy’s race to lose.

Still, no matter where your loyalties lie, the pricing up top is pretty ridiculous. Both AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson are worthy of being in the mix to go first overall, but Dybantsa is favored by the slimmest of margins.

This probably has everything to do with character and work ethic concerns surrounding Peterson, even if they may be overblown.

Coming in a distant third is Duke Blue Devils big man Cameron Boozer. In any other draft, he may be the consensus top pick, while there’s a pretty valid case to be made that he’s actually the most impactful player on the board.

Is it worth your time to go beyond these guys? Does Boozer have a real shot at shocking the world? Or are we just destined to get amazing value as we try to decide between Dybantsa and Peterson?

I’ll break it all down before coming to a final prediction for who the number one pick in the 2026 NBA Draft will be.

Why is AJ Dybantsa Favored to Be the #1 Pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

The biggest reason why AJ Dybantsa is the current favorite to go first overall in the NBA Draft is his massive potential.

AJ Dybantsa has untapped upside, but he’s already starting to sniff it, as he’s pouring in nearly 25 points per game for BYU. He’s not just a one-tricky pony, however, as he rebounds well (6.7 rpg), can create (3.8 assists per game), is active on defense (1.1 steals per game), and has proven he can knock down the long ball (34%).

The stats don’t paint the entire picture, though.

AJ Dybantsa is a true do-it-all player who can carry the mantle for his offense, enforce his will on offense, take on the opposition’s top defender, break down the defense with his handle, knock down impossible shots, and still have the energy and desire to give it everything he’s got on the other end of the floor.

Even better? NBA GMs love those tasty measureables, and he’s definitely got them in spades, as he clocks in at 6’9” and has a solid wingspan.

AJ Dybantsa has also been grinding away, passing every test and checking each box, while leading the BYU Cougars to a respectable 20-10 record at the time of this writing. More specifically, he’s the driving force behind the nation’s 22nd-best scoring offense.

A big part of the equation is always going to be who picks at #1 in the NBA Draft. That’s unknown as of now, but literally anyone could use someone like Dybantsa, who can do almost everything well.

Fit can’t be ignored, however. For instance, the team picking first could prefer Peterson – if even by a hair – or they could have a greater need down low, forcing Boozer into the conversation.

There’s also the new rumor that he may not even leave BYU after this season.

If that ends up being true, then these odds are going to change in a hurry. And suddenly, the top contenders would have a real shot to take over the top spot.

Top Contenders to Go #1 Overall This Year

• Darryn Peterson (+120)
• Cameron Boozer (+650)

The odds keep fluctuating for this market, but the players in consideration for the #1 pick really haven’t. AJ Dybantsa is the frontrunner right now, and right behind him are Peterson and Boozer – the only two realistic threats to go first overall.

Peterson is easily the one bettors need to take the most seriously. The Kansas product has caught heat due to removing himself from a game and battling an injury, but you really can’t slam him for his sheer talent and upside.

Everyone wants the next Anthony Edwards, and that’s exactly what Peterson could be if he reaches his ceiling. He doesn’t offer the same size as AJ Dybantsa, but his offensive game is silky smooth, complete with a deadly jumper and the ability to get to any spot he wants and hit any shot his team needs him to make.

A dynamic scorer who can kill defenses from every level, Peterson has averaged 19.5 points per game for the Jayhawks, helping them to a solid 21-9 record at the time of this writing.

Peterson isn’t quite the playmaker AJ Dybantsa is, and he doesn’t have the same defensive potential, but his offensive game is further advanced for the next level. He’s proven to be a marksman from long range, he can get to the rim with ease, he’s deadly in isolation, and he can carry an offense on his back.

Defensively, Peterson has the athleticism, size, and IQ to match up with just about anyone, allowing him to be a legit difference-maker at both ends of the floor.

When putting AJ Dybantsa vs. Darryn Peterson, it’s going to come down to who is picking #1 overall, how the fit looks, and what they need from their incoming prospect.

There’s also Boozer, who could get a huge boost to his draft stock if teams like Indiana or Dallas end up landing the top pick in the draft.

Put simply, Dallas would arguably not have as big of a need for a superstar player since they already have Flagg, but they could use some serious help on the interior at both ends of the floor.

Boozer is an intimidating presence at both ends, as he has the size, physicality, and tools to score efficiently and also be a stopper on defense. Boozer is not nearly as dynamic or as explosive as the guards he’s going up against, but he fills a different need and would provide serious help on the glass, boost interior scoring, and help any team’s defense.

A double-double threat, Boozer is a defensive asset (1.6 steals per game) but can also space the floor remarkably well (40% from deep) despite his size. He lacks shot-creating ability and isn’t as athletic or as fluid as AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson, but he’s every bit as tantalizing of a prospect.

AJ Dybantsa has competition, is the point. It’s going to come down to what the team picking first overall needs, and what their personal preference is if choosing between Dybantsa and Peterson.

Top Longshot Bet to Go #1 Overall

There really isn’t one, and that isn’t to rain on anyone’s “value hunting” parade, but as noted, this is at the very most a three-man race. And it’s probably more realistically coming down to just AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson.

Need to look for a cheap thrill and toss some cash on someone with outlandish odds? Then give Illinois product Keaton Wagler a whirl.

He’s not going 1st overall, but in another draft, he’d have a case. Averaging 18 points, five rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game while pushing the Fighting Illini up the Top 25 college basketball rankings, he’s a do-it-all guard with elite size, an exceptional shooting stroke, and a handle that allows him to penetrate the defense and create at will.

He’s been fantastic for a first-year player, hitting 42% from deep while generating a ton of offense for a good Illinois squad. If you weren’t convinced he was the real deal, a 46-point eruption against the Purdue Boilermakers maybe did the job.

The best part? Nobody would see Wagler coming, as DraftKings has him priced at an insane +25000.

There probably isn’t a real path forward here, of course. Wagler has the game and ceiling deserving of consideration, but he’s still a bit behind AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson in the guard conversation.

It’d require both of those guys returning to school or suffering a devastating injury to change things. That, or Wagler would have to go on an insane tear and set records as he tears through this year’s March Madness tourney.

Never say never, I guess. Especially at +25000 odds.

Key Factors That Decide the Top Pick in the NBA Draft

Want an idea as to what actually goes into the top pick each year? Here’s a quick checklist detailing what it takes to be the first player chosen:

• Star Potential: Teams picking 1st want a player with a borderline limitless ceiling. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but untapped potential and an athletic prospect that can be molded and coached is preferred.
• Fitting Need: If you’re picking #1, you probably have more than one need. However, if you’re set at guard, for instance, you may value a stud big man over a flashy guard.
• Production: This isn’t always the case, as we’ve seen overseas players picked without doing much in the way of actual production. However, teams tend to prefer to have seen players perform at an elite level statistically before pulling the trigger.
• Player Workouts: Tape and stats only get you so far. Teams will put a lot of stock in player workouts and interviews, which gives them an inside look at the type of person they’re investing in.

These are the key variables to consider when trying to predict who will go first in the NBA Draft. One thing to keep in mind is stuff that is intangible, like pre-draft rumors, reports that don’t have firm backing, or experts reading between the lines.

Those types of things can turn a clear picture hazy, especially in the event the race to be picked first overall is so close like it is this year.

NBA Draft Top Pick Prediction – Who Will Go First Overall in 2025?

Need aside, the first pick in the NBA Draft is really all about the best combination of star potential and ability. The guy that stands out the most when thinking about the league’s next superstar is easily Darryn Peterson.

You could make a case that Peterson is mildly overrated, while there is no denying that AJ Dybantsa is the more complete player right now. He’s also been more productive and offers a more tantalizing package physically.

But Peterson offers more star potential and is already the better offensive player. If he hadn’t run into a situation where he was struggling with his health, this may not even be a conversation.

The race for the top pick is definitely close, and if the team picking first chooses AJ Dybantsa, I don’t think anyone would be that shocked. However, Peterson is arguably the best prospect in this draft class, and we can get him at plus money.

That’s something not just to celebrate, but something bettors should be racing to exploit. Just make sure you shop for the best price around different betting sites before finalizing your bet.