Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Prediction (February 28th, 2026)
UFC Mexico takes center stage this week, with a fun fight between Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh as the headlining act.
The 9-1 Kavanagh looks to prove his worth as one of the featured fighters on an underrated UFC Fight Night card, as he’s taking this one on short notice. But he has to get through sizable favorite Brandon Moreno first.
DraftKings has Moreno clocked in as a -218 winner, as he has way more experience and is far more battle-tested. Of course, Moreno is getting up there in age, and there is absolutely a path for Kavanagh to leave his mark and stage the upset.
So, which will it be? Do bettors find a way to back Moreno, whether it be eating his moneyline or finding a different bet? Or are we in for an upset special to wrap up UFC Mexico this year?
I’ll figure that out by going over the latest odds and top picks, with an ultimate Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh prediction ready to rock as I wrap things up.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
- When: Saturday, February 28
- Where: Arena CDMX, México D.F. Mexico
- Schedule:Main Card – 8:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh odds over at DraftKings:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Brandon Moreno | -205 |
Lone’er Kavanagh | +170 |
Fight to Go the Distance | Yes (-120) | No (-110) |
Method of Victory | KO/TKO (+200) | Submission (+300) | Decision (-120) | Draw (+5000) |
What the Odds Tell Us
The odds suggest the veteran Moreno will walk away with a win. He’s the superior fighter in regards to defense, versatility, and experience, so the pricing makes sense.
Kavanaugh is a vicious fighter with finishing ability, but the odds suggest this fight is likely to go the distance, with a Decision win by Moreno the most likely method of victory.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Brandon Moreno
Moreno was originally slated to face Asu Almabayev at UFC Mexico, which would obviously have been a much bigger fight. That would have inarguably been a tougher opponent, too.
There’s no denying Moreno has the experience and versatility edge coming into this bout. He enters with a solid 23-9 career record at the professional level, while he’s been finished just one time in his entire career.
That finish did come in Moreno’s last fight versus Tatsuro Taira, but it’s fair to suggest he’s a much cleaner and more dangerous foe than Kavanagh. You could start thinking perhaps Moreno’s chin begins to weaken going forward, but that could be a dangerous assumption.
After all, Moreno has a laundry list of top-shelf opposition, and his elite defense has kept him out of trouble for most of his career. His recent form is also not bad, as he went the distance (and won) in recent showdowns with the crafty Steve Erceg, as well as the highly versatile Amir Albazi.
A versatile fighter, Moreno can inflict damage with his fists (3.89 significant strikes per minute), and he’s also very much a threat to get the fight to the mat. He enters with five KO wins, but his 11 career submissions are a reminder that he’s always on the hunt for a tap out.
Moreno offers elite cardio, pacing, scrambling, and awareness. He seems to only get better the longer fights go, while he is not someone to mess with on the floor. Despite his stellar defense and tough chin, standing and trading probably isn’t in his best interests against an explosive fighter like Lone’er Kavanaugh.
Lone’er Kavanagh
Kavanaugh is much younger at just 26, and he was a perfect 9-0 before getting rocked by Charles Johnson last August. Johnson is a nastier striker than Moreno, but it’s fair to say he isn’t as dangerous of a fighter as Moreno.
That could put Kavanagh in a tough spot. Coming off of a KO loss isn’t easy, and that’s something both of these fighters will be tasked with doing. Kavanagh’s confidence could be shot after a loss like that, though, as so much of his game is predicated on applying pressure, initiating contact with versatile kicks, and striking.
Kavanagh is a knockout threat here, and it’s quite arguable that he needs a win via KO. Grinding to a Decision win versus a seasoned pro like Moreno feels unlikely. Kavanagh’s output will be pretty key no matter what happens, as he’ll either read to rack up volume to win on points, or he’ll hope aggressive pacing gives him the advantage early.
Lone’er’s lack of experience could be a pretty steep hill to climb here, while it’s worth noting his power has yet to fully translate to the UFC, too.
Tale of the Tape
| Brandon Moreno | Lone’er Kavanagh | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 23-9-2 | 9-1 |
Age | 32 | 26 |
Height | 5’7” | 5’6” |
Reach | 70” | 67” |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Style | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Muay Thai |
This is an interesting matchup, as it’s a slower-paced and experienced fighter against an aggressive attacker with very little experience.
Kavanagh dominated against weaker competition, but despite going 2-1 inside the UFC, his striking hasn’t gotten him where he thought it would. On top of that, he’s shorter and loses three inches in reach, which could make it difficult for him to dominate with his leg kicks and striking in this matchup.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
These are two very gifted fighters headlining a massive event. Let’s take a close look at the key angles that could decide this one:
- Catch Him Early: Kavanagh is a ferocious fighter, and he has youth on his side. His best path to success is either volume or catching Moreno by surprise early – or a combination of the two. If he can’t do that, Moreno’s experience and floor game should win out.
- Grapple Szn: Moreno is the far better grappler and wrestler. His ability to dominate on the ground and also counter with striking negates some of what Kavanagh does well. If he can initiate the grappling and keep Kavanagh’s kicks at bay, he should dictate the pace of this fight.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh bets at UFC 324:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Brandon Moreno ML (-218) | Moreno has more experience, is more versatile, and is the better defender. This is also a last-second fight for Lone’er, so across the board, the edge goes to the crafty veteran with few holes in his game. | 7/10 |
Exact Method of Victory – Decision (-120) | Moreno isn’t really a KO threat these days, and both of these guys have had several fights go the distance. The odds are decent that Kavanagh’s kicks and striking keeps him in this thing, even if Moreno’s defense won’t allow him to win it. | 7/10 |
Moreno vs Kavanagh odds show strong value on Decision pricing as bettors weigh experience vs youth. Compare updated odds at our trusted UFC betting apps.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on a high-variance sport like MMA. Here’s why our Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh picks could fail:
- Early KO: As I noted, Kavanagh will be the fresher fighter, and he is inherently aggressive. If he can catch Moreno early, he could shock with the upset.
- Youth Movement: Kavanagh is younger, moves better, and has great reaction timing. Whether in striking defense, avoiding takedowns, or countering on the mat, he could be a bit too quick for the aging Moreno.
- Submission Game: I’m not angling for a submission win, but Moreno does have 11 career submission wins to his name. If he locks Kavanagh up, we’d be missing out on some really nice value (+330). Our ML bet would still hit, but the Decision pick would fail.
- Late Notice: Kavanagh took this fight on late notice, but Moreno is just as ill-prepared for this match as he is. If he’s not ready for Kavanagh’s quickness and leg kicks, perhaps he gets worn down faster than expected.
The Bottom Line: Moreno Proves His Worth, Dominates Kavanagh
Brandon Moreno is 32, not 38. He’s still a very good fighter and highly skilled. Not only does he have the experience and skill-set edge, but he has a massive advantage on the mat.
On top of that, Moreno is taller and longer, so most of what Kavanagh does well can be offset from the jump. Moreno has fared well against bigger names that are more dangerous, too. He took guys like Brandon Royval and Alexandre Pantoja to Decision losses, and he TKO’s lethal MMA stars like Deiveson Figueiredo and Kai Kara-France.
That isn’t to say Kavanagh can’t upset Moreno. However, if you’re looking for a Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh prediction, it’s that the older fighter is going to get the win.
The value might not be in his ML, but Moreno to win is the best bet on the board. A solid secondary bet is for this thing to go the distance or end in Decision. Both wagers are priced at -120, and when you look at how they match up, it really does project as the most likely outcome.
Feeling saucy? You can take stabs at alternative bets dealing with specific fighter methods of victory. If you do that, Moreno to win via submission (+330) and Kavanagh by KO (+440) look like fun. They are simply tertiary bets that I wouldn’t go very hard at.
Final Prediction Summary
- Method of Victory – Decision -120| Confidence: 7/10
- Fight Winner – Brandon Moreno -205 | Confidence: 7/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – Yes -120 | Confidence: 7/10
