Michigan Wolverines vs. Duke Blue Devils CBB Prediction (February 21st, 2026)
One of the biggest college basketball games to this point of the 2025-26 season arrives on Saturday night when the Michigan Wolverines battle the Duke Blue Devils.
This is a neutral site game in D.C., with Duke operating as a rare underdog. The Wolverines come in as mild 2.5-point road favorites. Michigan has lost just one game all year, so the Blue Devils could have their work cut out for them to make sure they get their second on Saturday.
Both teams enter this intense CBB clash in fantastic form. Michigan has been borderline unstoppable all year, as they’ve raced out to a 25-1 record overall, as well as a 15-1 mark inside the Big 10.
Duke has been about as good. The Blue Devils are 24-2 overall and 13-1 inside the ACC, while they’ve been very tough to beat (13-0) on their home floor. With Michigan’s lone loss of the year coming away from home, could we be looking at their second defeat?
Only time will tell, but I’ll run through the latest odds and key matchup angles to find out. If you’re looking for the right picks and a Michigan vs. Duke prediction to build bets around, read on.
Game Details
- Matchup: Michigan Wolverines (25-1) vs. Duke Blue Devils (24-2)
- Date & Time: Saturday, February 20th, 2026, at 5:30 pm (6:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN
Early Season Performance & Trends
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines enter tonight’s game at 25-1, with their lone loss coming to Big 10 rival, Wisconsin. Michigan has been fantastic all season, going 15-1 inside the conference and 9-0 on the road.
Michigan is presently ranked #1 in the country and has their sights set on locking down the top seed headed into March Madness. A win over Duke would go a long way in securing that, while a loss would potentially knock them from the top spot.
The Wolverines are in stellar form. Following their tight 91-88 loss to the Badgers, they ripped off 11 consecutive wins. Nebraska gave them a fight in a 75-72 battle, but otherwise most of their wins have come by double digits.
Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils have been amazing all year, as they come into this tense neutral site clash with a stout 24-2 mark. Duke has gone 13-1 inside the ACC and 13-0 at home, although Saturday’s game won’t be on their home floor.
Duke is also 8-1 on the road this year, while they are 3-1 on a neutral court. They come in with solid form, having won each of their last three games after dropping a tough 71-68 loss to North Carolina.
The Blue Devils have otherwise been insanely hot, as they are 13-1 over their last 14 games, with their only other loss coming in a crazy 82-81 defeat by the hands of Texas Tech.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
This Michigan vs. Duke rivalry has been simmering since 1963. Michigan won that first meeting easily in a 83-67 contest, but Duke got the most recent win, 79-69.
The Blue Devils lead the all-time series 22-8, and they’ve naturally dominated it in recent years. The two sides haven’t faced off in this game since 2013, but the Blue Devils have won the last three games and 10 of the last 11.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Wolverines have a very balanced offense led by forward Yaxel Landeborg (14.3 ppg) who also contributes 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game.
Center Aday Mara is also a double-double threat and nightly shot-blocking terror (2.7 blocks per game), while Morez Johson Jr. (13.5 ppg) is the team’s second-leading scorer.
This balanced approach is hard for opposing defenses to defend, as they can kill you in a number of ways. That leads to Michigan rolling out the 2nd scoring offense in college basketball, while they share the ball as well as anyone (2nd) with 19.5 assists per game) and also offer an inside/outside attack.
Michigan makes 9.4 threes per game and shoots at a solid 36.1% clip (64th), but they’re especially nasty inside (4th) and are one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
The Blue Devils aren’t as balanced as Michigan, but they have one of the most dominant stars in all of college basketball. Cameron Boozer is responsible for a massive chunk of Duke’s production, but he doesn’t seem shy about taking it on, as he’s pouring in 22.8 points per game.
Boozer does most of the heavy-lifting on offense, but guards Isaiah Evans (14.6 ppg) and Patrick Ngongba II (10.5 ppg) still pick their spots and chip in to give Duke a solid inside/outside attack.
That trio spearheads a solid offense that scores 83 points per game (37th) and is top-40 in assists, rebounding, and shooting efficiency. Boozer is a big reason for the Blue Devils ranking 4th in two-point shooting, while his guards can chime in with 8.9 threes per game.
Michigan is efficient, but they’re also one of the fastest offenses in the nation. The Wolverines rank 17th in pace of play with 75.5 possessions per game. Duke is a much slower offense, ranking 247th in the country with just 69.5 possessions per contest.
Defensively, Michigan is very solid, especially given their pace. The Wolverines only allow 68.8 points per game (45th) despite how fast they play. Michigan also ranks 1st in defensive efficiency, 8th against the long ball, and 4th in blocks per game.
Duke is even better on the defensive end of the floor. The Blue Devils rank 3rd in the nation in points per game allowed (63.2), while they have a very efficient defense that defends the paint and also closes out well at the three-point line.
- Duke’s interior offense vs. Michigan’s interior defense: This game comes down to whether or not Michigan can contain Duke’s big man down low. Boozer is a force as a scorer and on the glass, so if he can enforce his will, it could be a long night for the Wolverines.
- Michigan’s three-point shooting vs. Duke’s perimeter defense: Duke’s size could give Michigan’s interior scoring problems, just as well. If that’s the case, the Wolverines may need to hope their long ball is falling. That isn’t much easier, however, as Duke only allows a 31% conversion rate from deep.
- Rebounding Battle & Free Throws: Duke has the size and strength inside to give Michigan a fight on the glass, but the Wolverines still rank 7th in rebounding. It will be an interesting battle inside. Duke doesn’t let people get to the free throw line, so how successful Michigan is at tapping into one of their key offensive strengths will be something to consider.
Michigan has been so-so against the spread this year, going 14-12 overall. They are 7-3 ATS in games outside of the Big 10, however, while they are 5-1 ATS versus ranked opponents.
The Wolverines are also 3-1 ATS at a neutral location, while they are 13-11 ATS following a win.
Duke has the same exact 14-12 record against the spread. They’re also solid (7-5) outside of the ACC, but are just 4-6 ATS against ranked opponents. The Blue Devils are also just 2-2 against the spread at neutral sites.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Michigan vs. Duke betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Michigan | -2.5 (-110) | -156 | Over 148.5 (-115) |
Duke | +2.5 (-110) | +130 | Under 148.5 (-105) |
Duke enters this one as a slight underdog despite having a similar record and playing on a neutral court. Michigan is being respected in a big way here, as they are favored despite facing one of the best defensive teams in the country away from home.
This game has a modest 148.5 total, which leans into what could be more of a defensive battle due to how the Wolverines play.
From a Bettor’s Lens
There is alluring value on both sides of this game. This is a massive game for both sides, but Michigan having to play this one away from home could be a big deal. The pricing is pretty tight, so regardless of who you like, I’d target the moneyline and ignore the spread.
Michigan’s defense could make this game lower-scoring, but this total feels a bit light. Both offenses offer upside, so a secondary bet is the Over in this one.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Duke ML (+130) | The game is at a neutral site and Duke has more star power. They are not an easy matchup for Michigan at all, especially if they slow the game down and play like they can defensively. | 7/10 |
Over 148.5 (-115) | Duke’s defense should contain Michigan to a degree, but they won’t completely shut them down. The reality is this total isn’t super high and both offenses average over 83 points per game. Expect a mild downgrade from both sides, but the Over to still hit. | 6/10 |
As betting lines move for Michigan vs. Duke, bettors are watching pace, defensive matchups, and plus-money value. Compare line movement at our trusted sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Duke Blue Devils 77, Michigan Wolverines 74
Coming to a Michigan vs. Duke prediction isn’t easy because these teams are very similar. They are both ranked inside the top-3 in the country, they both share the ball extremely well, they both rebound at a high level, and they’re very efficient.
Michigan and Duke work the ball inside and have bigs that can dominate offensively, block shots, and clean the glass. They are not overly imposing from long range, and they love to tire out defenses and get to the free throw line.
The Wolverines prefer to pick up the pace, but Duke is likely going to try to slow this down, look for the perfect shot, and give it everything they’ve got on defense. The top seed in the NCAA tourney could be on the line here, and that is what tips the scales for me.
Is Duke for sure the better team? Perhaps not, but they definitely have the best player in this game, and the supporting cast around Boozer is still pretty good. We’re also getting the Blue Devils at plus money on a neutral court. I’m not sure we can pass that up.
