Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Prediction (February 20th, 2026)
The Milwaukee Bucks are back in action on Friday, when they will take on the Pelicans in New Orleans. DraftKings has the Bucks as 3.5-point underdogs on the road, but this game is littered with betting value.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is said to be nearing a return to the court, and his Bucks (5-5 over their last 10) are doing all they can to keep themselves in position to make the NBA Play-In Tournament.
Milwaukee has gone just 11-18 on the road so far, but they still stand out as an intriguing underdog bet, especially after they took it to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game.
On the other side of this matchup are the Pels, who have some talent with Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy leading the charge, but at 15-41 have no chance of sniffing the NBA playoffs.
Will the Pels live up to their favored billing, or can the Bucks return value as the road dogs? I’ll break down the latest pricing and the key angles for this matchup, while wrapping things up with a final Bucks vs. Pelicans prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks (23-30) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (15-41)
- Date & Time: Friday, February 20th, at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin, Gulf Coast Sports, NBA League Pass, and Pelicans.com
Early Season Performance & Trends
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have been a tough team to figure out all year, as they got off to a solid 8-5 start, but injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo have derailed them. Milwaukee kept Giannis through the NBA trade deadline; however, so it appears they will do all they can to make the NBA playoffs.
Milwaukee is just 23-30 on the year, but they have been heating up lately. A 5-1 run to finish the first half of the season is encouraging, while this team could get their top player back in the near future.
The Bucks are still a big question mark until we know what they look like at full strength, but all signs point to them making the Play-In Tournament, and from there, who knows?
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pels continue to be a disaster, as they are just 15-41 and are brutal on the defensive end of the floor. Zion Williamson being healthy is a win by itself, of course, while the Pels do have some nice young talent to work with.
New Orleans has not been a reliable bet to get wins even on their home floor, but they can push the pace and be an offensive force when they’re at full strength.
The Pels are presently playing for continuity as they look to next year. The playoffs are no longer in play, but they may try to finish strong since they do not own their own first-round pick for this year’s draft.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
This is not a storied rivalry, as the Bucks and Pelicans have only faced off 50 times. New Orleans holds the all-time series lead, 29-21, but have not fared well in this series lately.
It’s been all Milwaukee, as the Bucks have won the last three games and seven of the last eight. The Bucks took the only other meeting this year in a wild 141-137 overtime thriller.
The last two games between these two sides have been quite explosive, totaling over 240 points in each.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Bucks run their offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo when he’s at full strength. He was definitely still putting up MVP-level production when healthy (27.9 ppg), and continues to be a force on the glass.
Milwaukee’s production has been fleeting outside of their star player, but Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. have both flashed solid ability. Center Myles Turner chips in as needed, while newcomers Cam Thomas and Ousmane Dieng have flashed potential since arriving at the trade deadline.
Overall, the Bucks don’t grade out as an elite offense, as they’re just 27th in scoring. That said, they are still an efficient bunch and can heat up from long range (#2) with the best of them. When the outside shot is falling, the Bucks can be tough to slow down.
Zion Williamson is the driving force for the Pels when healthy. He’s been fantastic when he’s on the floor (21.6 ppg), and he attacks the paint at will. Trey Murphy (22.1 ppg) has enjoyed a career-best campaign as the top scoring threat, and that duo gives the Pels reliable offense on a nightly basis.
The problem is getting trustworthy production from the rest of the team. New Orleans lacks depth and balance, as Saddiq Bey is their only other scorer who can be counted on.
Overall, New Orleans plays fast and is pretty balanced, but they are at their best when attacking inside. The Pels have the #1 scoring offense in the paint thanks to Zion, but they need to pick it up from the perimeter and in regards to general efficiency (28th).
Neither of these teams are good defensively. The Bucks rank 14th in scoring defense and are 22nd in defensive efficiency. They are decent (12th) against the break and have done well (4th) in the paint, but give up a ton of three-pointers.
New Orleans is far worse defensively, as they rank 27th in defensive efficiency and 26th in scoring. The Pels don’t really do anything that well on defense, as they rank 23rd in transition, give it up in the paint (24th), and allow a lot of three-pointers.
In terms of pace of play, Milwaukee is pretty slow (27th), while the Pels are considerably faster (12th).
- Bucks perimeter offense vs. Pelicans perimeter defense: Milwaukee has a plethora of dangerous outside shooters and they have no restraint in hoisting. The Pels do rank 10th against the three-ball, though, so if they can close out, they could give Milwaukee trouble.
- Pelicans interior offense vs. Bucks interior defense: Zion attacks the paint at will, but he could be challenged here, seeing as the Bucks rank 4th in points allowed inside the paint. If Myles Turner and co. show up, points could be harder to come by than expected.
The Bucks are just 24-29 against the spread on the year. They are 2-0 against the spread with 4+ days off, while they are 13-16 ATS as the road team and 17-15 ATS as the underdog.
The Pelicans are surprisingly good (30-25-1) against the spread. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS as the home favorite and 17-11-1 ATS at home in general.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Bucks | +3.5 (-108) | +140 | Over 222.5 (-105) |
Pelicans | -3.5 (-112) | -166 | Under 222.5 (-115) |
The Bucks are coming in as mild underdogs. This plays into New Orleans having a terrible record and not being dominant on their home floor.
The game total is very healthy. New Orleans plays at a reasonably fast pace, and neither defense is very stingy defensively.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The Bucks look like a smash in every regard. Betting on them to beat this spread is the safer route, but if you’re backing them, you might as well take them straight up.
The safest bet in this game has to be the Over. The total feels a little light when you consider how bad the Pels are on defense, and also factor in their pace of play.
Situational Considerations
Giannis Antetokounmpo said in a recent interview that he is “100%,” but he is not expected to be available for this game.
Myles Turner and Ryan Rollins both missed Milwaukee’s last game but have a chance to return to the floor for this one after resting.
Dejounte Murray is nearing a return to the court and practiced on February 8th. It remains unclear when he will be back, but he’s not expected to play on Thursday night.
Trey Murphy exited a February 12th game for the Pels, and it is unclear if he’ll be good to go for this showdown. The team has also had Yves Missi and Micah Peavy missing time, and their status for this game is unknown.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Bucks ML (+140) | The Bucks are the better team right now, and they have something to play for. They offer shocking value when you consider how weak the Pels are defensively and at home. | 7/10 |
Over 222.5 (-105) | The safest Bucks vs. Pelicans pick is the Over. New Orleans plays relatively fast, and neither team defends well. Brace for plenty of scoring in this one. | 6/10 |
Odd lines are shifting for Bucks vs Pelicans as bettors weigh Milwaukee’s road value and New Orleans’ shaky defense. Compare updated odds at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks 120, New Orleans Pelicans 117
The Bucks are trending in a much better direction than the Pelicans, while it’s unclear if New Orleans will have a key player on hand. Both teams have been in middling form, but the Bucks have looked better in their most recent contests.
Milwaukee remains undermanned, but they still have enough key pieces to stay hot and get a win against a bad Pelicans team. Due to that, my main Bucks vs. Pelicans prediction is that Milwaukee gets a big road win in this spot.
A safer bet, however, is the Over. The last two meetings between these two teams have been very explosive, and there’s very little to suggest that won’t continue on Thursday night.
