Damir Dzumhur vs. Jaime Faria Prediction (February 19th, 2026)
The 2026 Rio Open rages on into the round of 16 on Thursday. One of the best tennis matches to bet on for this slate is easily a showdown between Damir Dzumhur and Jaime Faria, as this contest is priced very tightly.
Jaime Faria comes in as an ever-so-mild -153 betting favorite. That makes sense, as he looked fantastic as he took down 4th-seeded Sebastian Baez in straight sets (7-5, 6-1) the other day.
Things weren’t so easy for Dzumhur, but he managed to edge out Pedro Martinez in three sets. After getting blanked in the first set, he stormed back to win a second set that went down to the wire (7-6), and then pulled away late to win 6-4 in the final set.
Can the battle-tested Dzumhur provide elite betting value and get the upset? Are there other Dzumhur vs. Faria picks worth targeting? I’ll break down the latest odds and key matchup angles en route to a final Damir Dzumhur vs. Jaime Faria prediction.
Match Details
- Date & Time: February 19, 2026, at approximately 19:30 UTC / 2:30 PM ET
- Venue: Jockey Club Brasileiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Event: Rio Open (ATP 500)
- Round: Round of 16
- Surface: Outdoor Red Clay
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Damir Dzumhur vs. Jaime Faria Prediction odds over at DraftKings:
- Damir Dzumhur: +125
- Jaime Faria: -153
- Dzumhur Games Won: Over 12.5 (+110) | Under 12.5 (-165)
- Faria Games Won: Over 12.5 (-115) | Under 12.5 (-125)
What the Odds Tell Us
The odds tell us this is going to be a competitive match. Faria looked sharper in his most recent match and looks like the rightful favorite, but it isn’t by much.
The pricing also indicates that this is likely to be a quick match. Dzumhur is not favored to get 13 wins in this match, while Faria is most likely to win this thing in straight sets.
Matchup Preview & Player Profiles
Damir Dzumhur
The 33-year-old Dzamhur carries plenty of experience into this matchup, as he has 150 career singles wins to his name, as well as three tournament titles.
He’s racked up nine Challenger titles throughout his career, and he’s had some solid showings in grand slam events, appearing in the third round six times across the Australian Open, French Open, and US Open.
Dzumhur hasn’t had a ton of high-level success lately, and at age 33, it’s arguable he’s already reaching his ceiling in professional tennis. Still, his game is built for clay courts, so he could have a shot at making a deeper than expected run at the Rio Open.
Damir is best in rallies, as he can move around the court at an elite level, dictate the game’s tempo, extend points, and force his opponent into errors.
Jaime Faria
The 22-year-old Faria definitely lacks the experience or polish of his opponent, and he’s also a very different player. More reliant on power and operating from the baseline, Faria will prefer to not be pulled into extended rallies.
Instead, he will look to dominate with his first serve, win with early ball striking, and end points early. Whether he’s able to impose his will, of course, is open for debate.
To this point, Faria doesn’t have much success at the ATP level, as he has just five singles wins to his name and has never claimed any hardware. He did wrap up a Challenger title in 2024 and cracked the Top-100 in 2025, so it’s worth wondering if he could be headed for a rise.
Head-to-Head Record
| Damir Dzumhur | Jaime Faria | |
|---|---|---|
Wins | 0 | 0 |
Losses | 0 | 0 |
Total Wins | 150 | 5 |
Grand Slams | 0 | 0 |
These two have never faced off, while Dzumhur has enjoyed far more success and has way more experience. If bettors are looking solely at experience and production, then it’s safe to say that Dzumhur has a clear edge and could return value as the mild underdog.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Let’s investigate the key Damir Dzumhur vs. Jaime Faria prediction matchup factors to decide who will win and how you need to bet:
- Serve vs. Rallies: Dzumhur wants to be active on the court, and he can thrive on clay, while Faria wants to hang out on the baseline. If Faria’s serve is on point, he could enforce his will here, but Dzumhur will try to coax him into exchanges early and often.
- Patience is a Virtue: With Dazmhur’s style and ability on slower courts, it will be crucial for Faria to be more patient than usual. If he can slow things down and pick his spots, he could have a clear advantage against an older player.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Damir Dzumhur vs. Jaime Faria Prediction picks:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Dzumhur ML (+125) | Dzumhur has way more experience, 145 more wins at the ATP level, and he excels on clay. The style contrast suits him in this spot, and we can get him at plus money. | 6/10 |
Faria Under 12.5 Games (-125) | Faria is younger, more athletic, and has a more imposing serve. Considering Damir went down 6-0 in his first set in his last match, there is a path to Faria dominating in straight sets. He could also just as easily lose in straight sets, with both possibilities netting us a winning pick. | 6/10 |
As betting lines shift for Dzumhur vs Faria, bettors are targeting value in straight-sets pricing and total games markets. Compare updated odds at our top sports betting sites.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things don’t always go as planned in tennis betting. Here’s how my Damir Dzumhur vs. Jaime Faria prediction bets could miss the mark:
- Dominant Serve: Faria has the better serve game, more power, and can wreck from the baseline. If his serve is on point and he can detach himself from extended rallies, he can dictate this match and win quickly.
- Fresh Legs: Faria is far younger and is also fresher after an easier match. If he comes in at 100%, he could thwart off Damir’s rallies with movement, athleticism, and superior energy.
- Unexpected Battle: The other issue is if the style contrast leads to a third set. If that happens and Faria wins, he could get 13+ wins, and both of my Dzumhur vs. Faria picks would fail.
The Bottom Line: Dzumhur Digs Deep and Knocks Off Faria
Faria is a more intriguing long-term talent, but he’s done nothing so far. It’s quite arguable his big upset over this tourney’s 4th seed is his big moment, and Dzumhur is about to send him packing.
The big thing here is that Dzumhur has way more experience, while he is particularly good on a slower clay court. His ability to negate Faria’s serve and athleticism is massive for his chances to stage the upset.
If you’re looking for one Dami Dzumhur vs. Jaime Faria prediction to build bets around, I’d start with the elder tennis player getting the win. His +125 price is awesome considering the clear path to victory in this matchup.
Additionally, I like Faria’s odds of finishing Under 12.5 wins in this match. We have two paths to that happening, as he could get smoked or end up dominating. We just need to hope this showdown doesn’t get to a third set.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Damir Dzumhur (+125) | Confidence: 6/10
- Cobolli Games Won – Under 12.5 (-125) | Confidence 6/10
