Dallas Mavericks vs. LA Lakers Prediction (February 12th, 2026)
If it feels like the Los Angeles Lakers play every single day, you’re not alone. L.A. has played quite a bit recently, and on Thursday, they’ll have one final game before the NBA All-Star Break.
Luka Doncic won’t be on hand for it, but both LeBron James and Austin Reaves should be back to battle the Dallas Mavericks. FanDuel has the Lake Show as 7.5-point favorites at home, while the Mavs will be without stud rookie Cooper Flagg.
Doncic would have had an incentive to suit up against his former squad, but fans won’t get to witness a vengeful performance. Instead, bettors need to assess whether the Lakers can win by eight or if a shorthanded Dallas team can keep this game competitive.
Looking for a Mavericks vs. Lakers pick? I’ll comb through the latest odds in an effort to uncover the best bets for this game, and wrap things up with a final Mavericks vs. Lakers prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks (19-34) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (32-21)
- Date & Time: Thursday, February 12th, at 9:00 pm (10:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
- How to Watch: Prime Video, Spectrum Sports Net +, and Spectrum Sports Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs traded Luka Doncic away last year and were supposed to be in year one of a new title window. That’s now over, as they traded away Anthony Davis and are building around rookie sensation Cooper Flagg instead.
Naturally, it’s been a rocky year, as Flagg has been as good as advertised, but he’s been forced to carry an incomplete roster. That’s led to a weak 19-34 record in a season where Dallas isn’t a threat to push for the playoffs.
Dallas still has their moments, but they enter this game in free-fall mode. The Mavs have lost each of their last eight games, although they’ve been fairly competitive during this current drought.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers arguably won the Luka trade, but despite him being amazing, they haven’t made a big jump in the standings. Los Angeles is still a solid 32-21 and should have a chance at locking down the 4th or 5th seed when it’s all said and done, however.
Injuries have kept the Lakers from being truly special this year, but this is still a team reliant on efficient offense. L.A. is not a threat defensively, but we still don’t know just how good they can be, as their core hasn’t been together for much of the year.
As things stand, the Lakers are at least a solid playoff contender. They enter this game in reasonably good form, as they’ve gone 6-4 over their last 10 games.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Mavericks and Lakers have played each other 179 times in history. Los Angeles holds a 121-58 all-time series lead.
It’s been all Lakers in the series lately, as the Lake Show won the first two meetings this year and has won four in a row. Dallas last won on January 7th of 2025. L.A. is 3-0 in the last three meetings on their home floor.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Dallas is tough to gauge offensively for this game in particular, as Anthony Davis was traded away and was pouring in 20.3 points per game when he was healthy. A better representation of where this team is at offensively is looking at Cooper Flagg’s impact, as he’s developed much quicker than expected and produces 20.3 points per game.
The Mavs will be without both of those guys for this game, with the scoring burden falling to the likes of Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, and others. Players like Brandon Williams and newly added Marvin Bagley may be called upon, too.
Collectively, this is unsurprisingly not a very reliable offense. Dallas is light on talent at the moment, and they rank 22nd in scoring. Flagg’s ability to get to the rim at will is something the Mavs will miss until he returns, and that will hurt their interior scoring and free-throw shooting.
That could force Dallas to lean on their perimeter weapons. They don’t shoot the lights out (27th), though, so it could be tough for them to score.
The Lakers don’t have 30+ points per game and elite playmaking with Doncic gone, but LeBron James can set teammates up at an elite level, while both he and Austin Reaves can score 30+ points in a pinch.
That’s still a very solid offensive duo, while the Lakers have underrated depth around them. The likes of Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura, and newcomer Luke Kennard give them a capable supporting cast that can burn defenses from long range when they’re feeling it.
Overall, though, this is an efficient-based offense that works the ball inside, shares the wealth, and gets to the free throw line. That approach is going to be tested once again with Luka not available, but they’re in a much more enviable spot than Dallas headed into this matchup.
Neither the Mavs nor the Lakers defends at an elite level. Dallas hoped to build a championship-level defense around The Brow, but that plan has been ditched. Flagg is a good defender, but Dallas isn’t scary even with him, and his absence naturally hurts them on that end of the floor.
Dallas ranks 21st in scoring defense. They’re just 18th against the fastbreak and dead last at defending the paint. They do a solid job at preventing free-throw trips and are literally the best team at defending the perimeter.
The Lakers rank 18th in scoring and aren’t a whole lot better (20th) down low. They also limit free passes to the charity stripe, but they don’t defend the long ball all that well.
Dallas is a bit better in terms of defensive efficiency (13th), while the Lakers rank 23rd in that regard.
Mavericks perimeter offense vs. Lakers perimeter defense: Dallas is going to need to connect on their deep shots in this one. They’re missing their go-to interior scorer, and the matchup demands they shoot threes. This is their key to the game.
LeBron & Reaves vs. Mavericks interior defense: James doesn’t look to attack like he did when he was younger, but both he and Reaves can still penetrate and finish. They should both look to be aggressive given the matchup and Doncic not being active.
Free Throw Battle: Both of these teams love to get to the free-throw line and are great at stopping their opponents from doing so. The team who can execute better in this regard could have a huge advantage.
Intangibles
Dallas is just 23-30 against the spread on the year. The Mavs are weirdly 1-7 ATS with the rest advantage, while they are 18-18 ATS as the underdog and 7-15 ATS on the road.
The Lakers are 29-24 against the spread. They’re 7-3 ATS with a rest disadvantage, and they’re 11-5 ATS as the home favorite.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Mavericks vs. Lakers odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Mavericks | +7 (-110) | +245 | Over 236.5 (-110) |
Lakers | -7 (-110) | -300 | Under 236.5 (-110) |
The Lakers are the understandable favorites, as they are at home, and the Mavs are the inferior team. Dallas is also missing their top offensive player in Flagg.
This game’s total is very high. Neither team is very strong defensively, which has a lot to do with how the over/under is priced.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The first bet that stands out is the Under. This is a very high game total due to suspect defenses, but the Lakers are without a 30+ point scorer, and Dallas won’t have Cooper Flagg on hand.
The scoring could suffer in this one, while the Lakers are also flimsy 7.5-point favorites. They are the better team at home, but they are without their best player and aren’t the best team against the spread.
Situational Considerations
Luka Doncic won’t be facing his old team tonight. Cooper Flagg also won’t suit up in this one, while the Mavs have questionable tags for both Caleb Martin and Naji Marshall.
Deandre Ayton is also in doubt for this game. He could feast down low if active, while his absence could hurt L.A.’s rebounding and interior defense.
This will be the Lakers’ fourth game in six days. Dallas will only be playing their third since February 7th. Both teams have had a day of rest, but the Mavs should be the fresher squad overall.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Under 236.5 (-110) | This game is missing high-level scoring options from both sides. The overall scoring should suffer because of it. | 7/10 |
Mavericks ATS +7 (-110) | Dallas is shorthanded and on the road, but the Lakers are also missing a superstar, are tired, and aren’t very trustworthy ATS. | 6/10 |
Prop Play – LeBron James Over 8+ Assists (-161) | James is going to be super involved in the playmaking in this game. He needs just 8 assists to hit, and he’s managed to notch 10 assists in each of his last three games. | 7/10 |
Odd lines are shifting for Mavericks vs. Lakers as bettors react to Cooper Flagg and Luka Doncic being out. Track line movement at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers 115, Dallas Mavericks 110
My main Mavericks vs. Lakers prediction is that this game is going to go Under the assigned total. Both teams play poor defense, but this contest is missing two elite scoring options. If you factor in chemistry, reliable scoring, and the fact that the Lakers could be tired, I think this game could end up disappointing.
That should make for a closer game, too, so the Mavs stand out as an appealing ATS bet. I can’t say I necessarily trust Dallas without Flagg on the floor, but they do have some solid pieces in Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington, and the Lakers just aren’t a reliable team against the spread in general.
You can target a litany of props for this game, too, but King James going over eight assists feels like one of the better options considering how much he’ll control the ball in this one.
