Detroit Pistons vs. Toronto Raptors Prediction (February 11th, 2026)
The Detroit Pistons are in an interesting position on Wednesday night, as they’ll be forced to face the Toronto Raptors at less than 100%.
It isn’t mere injuries they are dealing with, however, as big men Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart are at risk of missing this contest due to suspension for their hand in a brawl on Monday night.
Despite this being the case, the Pistons enter Wednesday’s road tilt in Canada as 1.5-point favorites. That’s a testament to who they’ve been this year, as well as Cade Cunningham’s presence, but it’s something bettors need to raise an eyebrow at.
On the other side are the Raptors, who are in great form and are trying to improve their positioning as they prepare for the NBA playoffs. So, which side do you trust? The superior Pistons who are depleted and on the road, or the balanced Raptors on their home floor?
I’ll break this matchup down with a closer look at the odds and best bets, while wrapping things up neatly with a Pistons vs. Raptors prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Detroit Pistons (39-13) vs. Toronto Raptors (32-22)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, February 11th, at 6:30 pm (7:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Detroit, NBA League Pass, and The Sports Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have been nothing short of amazing this year. Detroit began showing signs of ascension last year, but Cade Cunningham and co. really launched their game to a whole new level this season.
Detroit is seeking their 40th win of the year, and it’s not even All-Star Weekend yet. They come to be on the cusp of a truly special campaign, while they presently nurse a 5.5 game lead for first place in the Eastern Conference.
The Pistons made a deal for sharpshooter Kevin Huerter before the NBA trade deadline to boost their outside shooting, but they already have an elite inside/outside punch. On top of that, they boast one of the best defenses in all of basketball.
With their elite balance and Cunningham playing at a near-NBA MVP level, the Pistons are a tough team to bet against on a nightly basis and just may have a shot at a title this year.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors aren’t quite on Detroit’s level just yet, but they have a very strong starting five. This is not a team that is lacking star power, while the Raptors combine efficient and balanced offense with rock-solid defense.
Thanks to discipline and high-level team play, the Raptors are 32-22 coming into this matchup and sit in 5th in the Eastern Conference. Toronto doesn’t appear to be a serious threat to ascend much higher than 4th or 5th this year, but they can hang with just about anyone.
The Raptors are certainly a lot better than they were a year ago, and they’ll be eyeing a first-round playoff win this year. For now, they come in riding a two-game winning streak and are in strong overall form with a 7-3 mark over their last 10 contests.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Pistons and Raptors have impossibly not faced each other this year. They have played 109 times throughout history, though, with Detroit holding a 66-43 advantage.
It was all Detroit last year, where the Pistons swept the season series (4-0). Two of the games were fairly lopsided, but two went down to the wire. Most of the four recent clashes were lower-scoring defensive battles.
Toronto’s last win in this series came in November of 2023. The Pistons have won each of the last six meetings.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Pistons run their offense through Cade Cunningham, who can pour it on thick as a scorer (25.2 ppg), but also runs the offense at an elite level (9.6 assists per game).
Cunningham doesn’t always get a ton of help, but center Jalen Duren (17.6 ppg) can dominate down low. Duncan Robinson (12.2 ppg) chips in as the team’s top deep threat, while Tobias Harris and Ausar Thompson pop up as needed.
Overall, this is a rock-solid offense that ranks 10th in scoring (117.3 points per game) and is very good at finishing inside (2nd). The Pistons also share the rock (11th in assists) and push the pace, and can torch teams with the 3rd best fastbreak offense in the league.
Detroit is not a high-volume perimeter offense, but they can do serious damage inside and get to the free-throw line at will.
The Raptors are much more balanced than the Pistons, as they have six players averaging double figures in scoring. Brandon Ingram (21.9) leads the way, but Scottie Barnes (19.3), RJ Barrett (18.6), and Immanuel Quickley (17) aren’t far behind.
Toronto lacks a go-to superstar, but they have four guys that can cook. In addition, they are very deep down low, as they have a strong rotation of big men that can score inside and also facilitate offense.
All of this makes the Raptors tough to stop as a team on offense. Toronto only ranks 23rd in scoring, but they are 7th inside the paint, #1 on the break, and 3rd in assists per game. While not a serious threat from long range, Toronto plays a slower, methodical offense that avoids turnovers (7th) and tends to be in the majority of games due to their low-risk approach.
Detroit is surprisingly fast, as they push the pace at the league’s 12th fastest rate. Toronto is considerably slower, ranking 19th in pace of play.
Both teams are strong defensively, but the Pistons are superior. Detroit has the 3rd best scoring defense in the league, while they rank 2nd in defensive efficiency. The Pistons are 6th against the break, 3rd inside, and 6th against the long ball.
Toronto is not far behind, of course. The Raptors are the 7th most efficient defense in the NBA, and they own the 7th best scoring defense as well. Toronto stops the break (3rd), they defend the paint (8th), and they rank 2nd at defending three-pointers.
- Detroit’s perimeter offense vs. Toronto’s perimeter defense: You can include all of the Pistons here, but they are not collectively a high-volume attack from deep. Still, Toronto closes out well and allows the 2nd-lowest three-point rate (34.5%), making this a pretty brutal spot for Detroit’s top outside shooters.
- Detroit’s interior scoring vs. Toronto’s interior defense: It remains to be seen which bigs the Pistons will have on hand for this game. If Duren and Stewart are suspended, they will really have their work cut out for them against a strong interior rotation for the Raptors.
- On the Break: The Pistons push the pace more than Toronto and are very good in transition offensively. Toronto stops the break as well as anyone, though, and if they do that here, they’ll have a significant advantage.
The Pistons are just 27-25 against the spread this year. They are 8-1 against the spread as the underdog, but they are just 12-12 ATS on the road, and they could be down key players.
Toronto has gone just 27-27 against the spread. The Raptors are 14-9 ATS as the underdog and 12-16 ATS at home.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Pistons vs. Raptors odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Pistons | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | Over 223.5 (-110) |
Raptors | +1.5 (-110) | +105 | Under 223.5 (-110) |
This is a very tight spread. The Raptors are getting respected for being a solid team at home, while Detroit is getting credit for their status as the top team in the Eastern Conference, even if they may not be at 100%.
This game total is modest, but it’s arguable it is a tad high given the defensive ability on both sides of this matchup.
From a Bettor’s Lens
You could smash the moneyline either way. All I know is I am not touching the spread. Detroit offers elite value at -125 when you consider who they’ve been all year, but the Raptors at home at plus money is tough to bypass.
The Under is an easy smash here. If the Pistons are down two key inside men, they could have defensive lapses in the paint, but the overall defensive impact should lead to this game being on the lower scoring side.
Situational Considerations
Nothing is official as I write this, but the Pistons are likely going to play without Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren in this one. Any other Pistons that left the bench during the brawl could be at risk, too, which would further hurt their chances of winning.
Toronto figures to be at full strength. Center Jakob Poeltl could even be on hand for this one. He’d be limited, but a healthy Poeltl would strengthen an already solid rotation for the Raptors on the interior.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Raptors ML (+105) | Toronto is healthier, more balanced, and at home. Look for them to snap a 6-game skid in this series. | 7/10 |
Under 223.5 (-110) | Toronto has the leverage at home, and they play slower than Detroit. If the Pistons don’t have Duren, their interior scoring takes a huge hit as well. | 7/10 |
Odd lines are changing for Pistons vs. Raptors as bettors react to possible Detroit suspensions and Toronto’s home value. Track line movement at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors 105, Detroit Pistons 103
My main Pistons vs. Raptors prediction is that Toronto takes care of business at home. The Raptors are a lot to handle on their home floor, while they are very balanced offensively and play strong defense.
The big issues are that the Pistons are on the road, and they could be without a stud center in Jalen Duren. Toronto at plus money feels like a steal, all things considered.
If you don’t have the stomach to bet against Detroit, hammer the Under. Detroit’s offense could take a hit here, and Toronto’s slower pace will contribute to this game being relatively low-scoring.
